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Background: Drug overdose persists as a leading cause of death in the United States, but resources to address it remain limited. As a result, health authorities must consider where to allocate scarce resources within their jurisdictions. Machine learning offers a strategy to identify areas with increased future overdose risk to proactively allocate overdose prevention resources. This modeling study is embedded in a randomized trial to measure the effect of proactive resource allocation on statewide overdose rates in Rhode Island (RI). Methods: We used statewide data from RI from 2016 to 2020 to develop an ensemble machine learning model predicting neighborhoodlevel fatal overdose risk. Our ensemble model integrated gradient boosting machine and super learner base models in a moving window framework to make predictions in 6-month intervals. Our performance target, developed a priori with the RI Department of Health, was to identify the 20% of RI neighborhoods containing at least 40% of statewide overdose deaths, including at least one neighborhood per municipality. The model was validated after trial launch. Results: Our model selected priority neighborhoods capturing 40.2% of statewide overdose deaths during the test periods and 44.1% of statewide overdose deaths during validation periods. Our ensemble outperformed the base models during the test periods and performed comparably to the best-performing base model during the validation periods. Conclusions: We demonstrated the capacity for machine learning models to predict neighborhood-level fatal overdose risk to a degree of accuracy suitable for practitioners. Jurisdictions may consider predictive modeling as a tool to guide allocation of scarce resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to put strain on health systems in the United States, leading to significant shifts in the delivery of routine clinical services, including those offering HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We aimed to assess whether individuals discontinued PrEP use at higher rates during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which disruptions to usual clinical care were mitigated through telehealth. Methods: Using data from an ongoing prospective cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) newly initiating PrEP in 3 mid-sized cities (n = 195), we calculated the rate of first-time discontinuation of PrEP use in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the COVID-19 pandemic and compared these rates using incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Furthermore, we compared the characteristics of patients who discontinued PrEP use during these periods with those who continued to use PrEP during both periods. Results: Rates of PrEP discontinuation before the COVID pandemic and during the COVID-19 pandemic were comparable [4.29 vs. 5.20 discontinuations per 100 person-months; IRR: 1.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83 to 1.77]. Although no significant differences in the PrEP discontinuation rate were observed in the overall population, the rate of PrEP discontinuation increased by almost 3-fold among participants aged 18–24 year old (IRR: 2.78; 95% CI: 1.48 to 5.23) and by 29% among participants covered by public insurance plans at enrollment (IRR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.03 to 5.09). Those who continued to use PrEP were more likely to have had a follow-up clinical visit by telehealth in the early months of the pandemic (45% vs. 17%). Conclusions: In this study, rates of PrEP discontinuation were largely unchanged with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of telehealth likely helped retain patients in PrEP care and should continue to be offered in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Male sex workers (MSWs) are at increased risk of HIV infection in the United States. Research is limited on sexual and drug use network characteristics of MSWs. Setting: Community-based organization and health center in 2 US Northeast cities. Methods: One hundred MSWs completed a behavioral assessment and sexual and drug network inventory. Using dyadic analyses, we assessed whether network characteristics, including sex worker-male client age, race, and HIV status homophily and risk multiplexity (ie, overlap in druguse and sex networks), were associated with condom use. Results: MSW participants' mean age was 33.6. Two-thirds identified as Black or Latino, 12% identified as heterosexual, and 90% reported recent drug use. Participants reported an average of 5.3 male clients in the past month (SD = 3.4), and having anal sex with 74% of these clients, at a rate of 2.2 times per month (SD = 4.6). Participants reported inconsistent condom use during anal sex with 53% of clients. In multivariable models, inconsistent condom use was more common in relationships with presumed HIV status homophily [odds ratio (OR): 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07 to 1.46] and sexual and drug network multiplexity (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.30); and less common within relationships where the client is older than the MSW participant (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.74 to 0.93). Number of multiplex relationships was positively associated with number of condomless anal sex acts with male clients (incidence rate ratio: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.54). Conclusions: Network characteristics may contribute to disproportionate HIV risk among MSWs. Modeling studies should include network characteristics when simulating HIV transmission, and future HIV interventions should address the role of networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose crisis. Little is known about the role of environmental factors in increasing risk of fatal opioid overdose.Methods: We conducted a case-crossover analysis of 3,275 opioid overdose deaths recorded in Connecticut and Rhode Island in 2014-2017. We compared the mean ambient temperature on the day of death, as well as average temperature up to 14 days before death, to referent periods matched on year, month, and day of week.Results: Low average temperatures over the 3-7 days before death were associated with higher odds of fatal opioid overdose. Relative to 11°C, an average temperature of 0°C over the 7 days before death was associated with a 30% higher odds of death (odds ratio: 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.1, 1.5).Conclusions: Low average temperature may be associated with higher risk of death due to opioid overdose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sex tourism affects the sexual health of tourists and locals with whom they interact. However, a few studies have examined whether sex tourism is a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections among men who have sex with men, and no such studies have been conducted in Western Europe. Almost 28% of our respondents reported engaging in sex tourism in their lifetime. Sex tourism was associated with an elevated risk of engagement in condomless receptive anal intercourse, use of alcohol/drugs during sex, participation in group sex, and an elevated risk of diagnosis with any type of sexually transmitted infection over the previous year, specifically gonorrhea and chlamydia. Research with men who have sex with men who engage in sex tourism should explore high-risk sexual behavior during sex tourism and also the feasibility and acceptability of the use of episodic pre-exposure prophylaxis for short periods of participation in elevated risk behaviors by tourists and local sex partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake has been slow among African American men who have sex with men (AAMSM) in the United States. We used an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate race-specific PrEP coverage to estimate their impact on racial disparities in HIV incidence among MSM in Atlanta, GA. Methods: An ABM was constructed to simulate HIV transmission in a dynamic network of 10,000 MSM over 10 years, beginning in 2015. We modeled a base scenario with estimated PrEP coverage of 2.5% among AAMSM and 5.0% among white MSM (WMSM). We then compared HIV incidence over 10 years and calculated a disparity ratio of AAMSM to WMSM incidence rates across varying PrEP scale-up scenarios, with equal and unequal coverage among AAMSM and WMSM. Results: Assuming current coverage remains constant, the model predicts HIV incidence rates of 2.95 and 1.76 per 100 person-years among AAMSM and WMSM, respectively, with a disparity ratio of 1.68. If PrEP coverage was to increase 6-fold without addressing inequities in PrEP uptake, the model predicts incidences of 2.65 and 1.34, corresponding to a mean decrease of 10.4% and 24.0% in HIV incidence, respectively. This stronger benefit for WMSM increased the disparity ratio to 1.98. Equal PrEP coverage among AAMSM and WMSM resulted in lower incidence rates overall with lower disparity ratios. Conclusions: Lower uptake among AAMSM relative to WMSM may limit the population-level impact of PrEP use among AAMSM, which may ultimately culminate in wider racial disparities in HIV incidence among MSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geosocial-networking smartphone applications such as Grindr can help men who have sex with men (MSM) meet sexual partners. Given the high incidence of HIV in the Deep South, the purpose of our study was to assess HIV risk and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) awareness and use in a sample of HIV-uninfected, Grindr-using MSM residing in Atlanta, Georgia ( n = 84). Most ( n = 71; 84.6%) reported being somewhat or very concerned about becoming HIV infected. Most ( n = 74; 88.1%) had been tested for HIV in their lifetimes. About three fourths ( n = 65; 77.4%) were aware of PrEP, but only 11.9% currently used the medication. HIV continues to disproportionately impact MSM and represents a significant source of concern. As the number of new infections continues to rise, it is important to decrease risks associated with acquisition and transmission of HIV by increasing rates of HIV testing and the use of biobehavioral interventions such as PrEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]