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Abstract: Many studies report a female predominance in the prevalence of chronic musculoskeletal pain (CMP) but the mechanisms explaining these sex differences are poorly understood. Data from a random postal questionnaire survey in the Dutch general population were used to examine whether sex differences in the prevalences of CMP are due to sex differences in the distribution of known potential risk factors for CMP (exposure model) and/or to the different importance of risk factors for CMP (i.e. show different strength of association) in men and women (vulnerability model). In the present analyses, 909 men and 1178 women aged 25–65 were included. CMP was defined as pain lasting longer than 3 months and was assessed for 10 anatomical locations (neck, shoulder, higher back, elbow, wrist/hand, lower back, hip, knee, ankle, foot). Sex differences in CMP could not be explained by a different distribution of age, educational level, smoking status, overweight, physical activity, and pain catastrophizing. Having no paid job was associated with CMP, explaining part of the sex differences, but its role seems complex. Risk factors with a sex-specific association were: overweight (all pain locations) and older age (lower extremities) – both having only an effect among women – and pain catastrophizing (upper extremities), which was stronger associated with CMP among men than among women. In conclusion, sex differences in prevalence of CMP may partly be explained by sex differences in vulnerability to risk factors for CMP. Future research towards sex-specific identification of risk factors for CMP is warranted. Eventually this may lead to sex-specific prevention and management of CMP. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Prognostic studies on neck pain are scarce and are typically restricted to short-term follow-up only. In this prospective cohort study, indicators of short- and long-term outcomes of neck pain were identified that can easily be measured in general practice. Patients between 18 and 70 years of age, suffering for at least 2 weeks from neck pain were recruited by 42 general practitioners (GPs). Perceived recovery, pain intensity and neck dysfunction after 7 and 52 weeks were considered as outcome measures. Indicators of prognosis were identified by means of logistic regression analyses (perceived recovery) and linear regression analyses (pain intensity and neck dysfunction). In total, 183 patients were included. After 1 year, 63% had recovered. The prognostic models showed differences between short- and long-term indicators. At the short term, besides the baseline values of the respective outcome measurements, only older age (≥40) and concomitant low back pain and headache were associated with poor outcome. At the long term, in addition to age and concomitant low back pain, previous trauma, a long duration of neck pain, stable neck pain during the 2 weeks prior to baseline measurement, and previous neck pain predicted poor prognosis. The predictive power of the models was weak: the explained variance (R2) varied from 24 to 36%. Patient history and physical examination give GPs little handholds to predict the prognosis for patients with sub-acute and chronic neck pain. A few indicators of a less favourable prognosis of neck pain were identified, of which older age and concomitant low back pain was the most consistent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]