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Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA., Methods: United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401 820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83 816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines., Results: In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678-0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837-0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120-0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (net reclassification index +0.101 [95% CI, 0.055-0.147])., Conclusions: In an asymptomatic general population, a risk score based on patient age, height, weight, and medical history may improve identification of asymptomatic patients at risk for clinical events from AAA. Further development and validation of risk scores to detect asymptomatic AAA are needed.

Purpose: To identify predictors of favorable changes to postprandial insulin and glucose levels in response to interrupting prolonged sitting time with standing or light-intensity physical activity., Methods: Data were combined from four similarly designed randomized acute cross-over trials (n = 129; body mass index [BMI] range, 19.6-44.6 kg·m; South Asian = 31.0%; dysglycemia = 27.1%). Treatments included: prolonged sitting (6.5 h) or prolonged sitting broken-up with either standing or light-intensity physical activity (5 min every 30 min). Time-averaged postprandial responses for insulin and glucose were calculated for each treatment (mean ± 95% confidence interval). Mutually adjusted interaction terms were used to examine whether anthropometric (BMI), demographic (age, sex, ethnicity [white European vs South Asian]) and a cardiometabolic variable (Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance)-modified responses., Results: Postprandial insulin and glucose were reduced when individuals interrupted prolonged sitting with bouts of light physical activity, but not with standing. Reductions in time-averaged postprandial insulin were more pronounced if individuals were South Asian compared with white European (-18.9 mU·L [-23.5%] vs -8.2 mU·L [-9.3%]), female compared with male (-15.0 mU·L [-21.2%] vs -12.1 mU·L [-17.6%]) or had a BMI ≥27.2 kg·m (-20.9 mU·L [-22.9%] vs -8.7 mU·L [-18.2%]). Similarly, being female (-0.4 mmol·L [-0.6 mmol·L, -0.2 mmol·L], -6.8% vs -0.1 mmol·L [-0.3 mmol·L, 1 mmol·L], -1.7%) or having a BMI ≥27.2 kg·m (-0.4 mmol·L [-0.6 mmol·L, -0.2 mmol·L], -6.7% vs -0.2 mmol·L [-0.4 mmol·L, 0.0 mmol·L], -3.4%) modified the postprandial glucose response. No significant interactions were found for Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance or age., Conclusions: Being female, South Asian, or having a higher BMI, all predicted greater reductions in postprandial insulin, whereas being female and having a higher BMI predicted greater reductions in postprandial glucose when sitting was interrupted with light physical activity. These results could help to guide personalized interventions in high-risk participants for whom breaking prolonged sitting time with light activity may yield the greatest therapeutic potential.

Background: Total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) measurements are central to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, but there is continuing debate around the utility of other lipids for risk prediction., Methods: Participants from UK Biobank without baseline CVD and not taking statins, with relevant lipid measurements (n=346 686), were included in the primary analysis. An incident fatal or nonfatal CVD event occurred in 6216 participants (1656 fatal) over a median of 8.9 years. Associations of nonfasting lipid measurements (total cholesterol, HDL-C, non-HDL-C, direct and calculated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and apolipoproteins [Apo] A1 and B) with CVD were compared using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors, and predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index. Prediction was also tested in 68 649 participants taking a statin with or without baseline CVD (3515 CVD events)., Results: ApoB, LDL-C, and non-HDL-C were highly correlated (r>0.90), while HDL-C was strongly correlated with ApoA1 (r=0.92). After adjustment for classical risk factors, 1 SD increase in ApoB, direct LDL-C, and non-HDL-C had similar associations with composite fatal/nonfatal CVD events (hazard ratio, 1.23, 1.20, 1.21, respectively). Associations for 1 SD increase in HDL-C and ApoA1 were also similar (hazard ratios, 0.81 [both]). Adding either total cholesterol and HDL-C, or ApoB and ApoA, to a CVD risk prediction model (C-index, 0.7378) yielded similar improvement in discrimination (C-index change, 0.0084; 95% CI, 0.0065, 0.0104, and 0.0089; 95% CI, 0.0069, 0.0109, respectively). Once total and HDL-C were in the model, no further substantive improvement was achieved with the addition of ApoB (C-index change, 0.0004; 95% CI, 0.0000, 0.0008) or any measure of LDL-C. Results for predictive utility were similar for a fatal CVD outcome, and in a discordance analysis. In participants taking a statin, classical risk factors (C-index, 0.7118) were improved by non-HDL-C (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0012, 0.0048) or ApoB (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0011, 0.0048). However, adding ApoB or LDL-C to a model already containing non-HDL-C did not further improve discrimination., Conclusions: Measurement of total cholesterol and HDL-C in the nonfasted state is sufficient to capture the lipid-associated risk in CVD prediction, with no meaningful improvement from addition of apolipoproteins, direct or calculated LDL-C.

Purpose: Walking pace is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Whether this association extends to other health outcomes and whether it is independent of total amount of time walked are currently unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate whether usual walking pace is associated with a range of health outcomes., Methods: UK Biobank participants (318,185 [54%] women) age 40 to 69 yr were included. Walking pace and total walking time were self-reported. The outcomes comprised: all-cause mortality as well as incidence and mortality from CVD, respiratory disease and cancer. The associations were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models., Results: Over a mean of 5.0 yr [ranging from 3.3 to 7.8], 5890 participants died, 18,568 developed CVD, 5430 respiratory disease and 19,234 cancer. In a fully adjusted model, compared to slow pace walkers, men and women, respectively, with a brisk pace having lower risk of mortality from all-causes (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.90 and HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62-0.85), CVD (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.50-0.76 and HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.88), respiratory disease (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.43-0.78 and HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.57-0.77), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.12-0.56 and HR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.16-0.49). No associations were found for all-cause cancer, colorectal, and breast cancer. However, brisk walking was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer., Conclusions: Walking pace is associated with lower risk of a wide range of important health conditions, independently of overall time spent walking.

Objective: Elevated white blood cell count is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to investigate whether specific leukocyte subpopulations, which may more closely indicate a specific inflammatory pathway, are specifically associated with CVD., Approach and Results: Participants (478 259) from UK Biobank with data for white blood cell count were included. Death because of CVD (n=1377) and non-CVD causes (n=8987) occurred during median follow-up time of 7.0 years (interquartile range, 6.3-7.6). In Cox models, deciles of leukocyte counts (lymphocytes, monocytes, neutrophils, eosinophils, and basophils) were examined using the fifth decile as the referent group. Models were stratified by sex and adjusted for a range of classical risk factors. A sensitivity analysis excluded participants with baseline comorbidites and the first 2 years of follow-up. Men (hazard ratio [HR], 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.08) and women (HR, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-3.35) in the highest decile of neutrophil count were at higher risk of CVD mortality and nonfatal CVD (men HR, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.42 and women HR, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.38). In the sensitivity analysis, the power to investigate CVD mortality was limited, but for both sexes combined, the linear HRs for a 1×10 9 /L cell count increase in white blood cell count and neutrophils, respectively, was 1.05 (1.03-1.07) and 1.07 (1.04-1.11)., Conclusions: Among circulating leukocyte subpopulations, neutrophil count in men was most consistently associated with fatal and nonfatal CVD. Further studies of interventions that lower circulating neutrophils, such as canakinumab, are required to investigate causality., (© 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.)