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Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. The growing high demands in utilizing the high potentials of water resource of the Lake to its maximal limit, pictures a disturbing future for the Lake. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of topography, soil, land use and climatic varia-bility on the hydrological and hydrodynamic processes of the Lake Tana Basin. The physically based SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated for flow and sediment yield. Se-quential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2), parameter solution (ParaSol) and generalized likelihood un-certainty estimation (GLUE) calibration and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set-up of the SWAT model. There is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows and sediment yields. SWAT and GIS based decision support system that uses multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) was used to identify the most vulnerable areas to soil erosion in the basin. The results indicated that 12 to 30.5% of the watershed is high erosion potential. Pro-jected changes in precipitation and temperature in the basin for two seasons were analyzed using outputs from fifteen global climate models (GCMs). A historical-modification procedure was used to downscale large scale outputs from GCM models to watershed-scale climate data. The results showed significant changes in streamflow and other hydrological parameters in the period between 2045-2100. SWAT was combined with a three dimensional hydrodynamic model, GEMSS to investigate the flow structure, stratification, the flushing time, lake water balance and finally the Lake‘s water level response to planned water removal. We have found an alarming and dramatic fall of the water levels in Lake Tana as response to the planned water withdrawal. The combination of the two models can be used as a decision support tools to better understand and manage land and water resources in watersheds and waterbodies. The study showed that the Lake Tana Basin may experience a negative change in water balance in the forthcoming decades due to climate change as well as over abstraction of water resources. QC 20100720

Land and water resources degradation are the major problems on the Ethiopian highlands. Poor land use practices and improper management systems have played a significant role in causing high soil erosion rates, sediment transport and loss of agricultural nutrients. So far limited meas-ures have been taken to combat the problems. In this study a physically based watershed model, SWAT2005 was applied to the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia for modelling of the hydrology and sediment yield. The main objective of this study was to test the performance and feasibility of SWAT2005 model to examine the influence of topography, land use, soil and climatic condi-tion on streamflows, soil erosion and sediment yield. The model was calibrated and validated on four tributaries of Lake Tana as well as Anjeni watershed using SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol algo-rithms. SWAT and GIS based decision support system (MCE analysis) were also used to identify the most erosion prone areas in the Lake Tana Basin. Streamflows are more sensitive to the hy-drological response unites definition thresholds than subbasin discretization. Prediction of sedi-ment yield is highly sensitive to subbasin size and slope discretization. Baseflow is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. There is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows and sediment yields with higher values of coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. The an-nual average measured sediment yield in Anjeni watershed was 24.6 tonnes/ha. The annual aver-age simulated sediment yield was 27.8 and 29.5 tonnes/ha for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The SWAT model indicated that 18.5 % of the Lake Tana Basin is erosion potential areas. Whereas the MCE result indicated that 25.5 % of the basin are erosion potential areas. The calibrated model can be used for further analysis of the effect of climate and land use change as well as other different management scenarios on streamflows and soil erosion. The result of the study could help different stakeholders to plan and implement appropriate soil and water conser-vation strategies. QC 20101123