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Dramatic increases in air temperature and precipitation are occurring in the High Arctic (>70 °N), yet few studies have characterized the long-term responses of High Arctic ecosystems to the interactive effects of experimental warming and increased rain. Beginning in 2003, we applied a factorial summer warming and wetting experiment to a polar semidesert in northwest Greenland. In summer 2018, we assessed several metrics of ecosystem structure and function, including plant cover, greenness, ecosystem CO₂ exchange, aboveground (leaf, stem) and belowground (litter, root, soil) carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations (%) and pools, as well as leaf and soil stable isotopes (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N). Wetting induced the most pronounced changes in ecosystem structure, accelerating the expansion of S. arctica cover by 370% and increasing aboveground C, N, and biomass pools by 94–101% and root C, N, and biomass pools by 60–122%, increases which coincided with enhanced net ecosystem CO₂ uptake. Further, wetting combined with warming enhanced plot-level greenness, whereas in isolation neither wetting nor warming had an effect. At the plant level the effects of warming and wetting differed among species and included warming-linked decreases in leaf N and δ¹⁵N in Salix arctica, whereas leaf N and δ¹⁵N in Dryas integrifolia did not respond to the climate treatments. Finally, neither plant- nor plot-level C and N allocation patterns nor soil C, N, δ¹³C, or δ¹⁵N concentrations changed in response to our manipulations, indicating that these ecosystem metrics may resist climate change, even in the longer term. In sum, our results highlight the importance of summer precipitation in regulating ecosystem structure and function in arid parts of the High Arctic, but they do not completely refute previous findings of resistance in some High Arctic ecosystem properties to climate change.

Arctic ecosystems are changing dramatically with warmer and wetter conditions resulting in complex interactions between herbivores and their forage. We investigated how Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) modify their late winter diets in response to long-term trends and interannual variation in forage availability and accessibility. By reconstructing their diets and foraging niches over a 17-year period (1995–2012) using serum δ13C and δ15N values, we found strong support for a temporal increase in the proportions of graminoids in the diets with a concurrent decline in the contributions of mosses. This dietary shift corresponds with graminoid abundance increases in the region and was associated with increases in population density, warmer summer temperatures and more frequent rain-on-snow (ROS) in winter. In addition, the variance in isotopic niche positions, breadths, and overlaps also supported a temporal shift in the foraging niche and a dietary response to extreme ROS events. Our long-term study highlights the mechanisms by which winter and summer climate changes cascade through vegetation shifts and herbivore population dynamics to alter the foraging niche of Svalbard reindeer. Although it has been anticipated that climate changes in the Svalbard region of the Arctic would be detrimental to this unique ungulate, our study suggests that environmental change is in a phase where conditions are improving for this subspecies at the northernmost edge of the Rangifer distribution.

Patterns of δ¹⁸O and δ²H in Earth’s precipitation provide essential scientific data for use in hydrological, climatological, ecological and forensic research. Insufficient global spatial data coverage promulgated the use of gridded datasets employing geostatistical techniques (isoscapes) for spatiotemporally coherent isotope predictions. Cluster-based isoscape regionalization combines the advantages of local or regional prediction calibrations into a global framework. Here we present a revision of a Regionalized Cluster-Based Water Isotope Prediction model (RCWIP2) incorporating new isotope data having extensive spatial coverage and a wider array of predictor variables combined with high-resolution gridded climatic data. We introduced coupling of δ¹⁸O and δ²H (e.g., d-excess constrained) in the model predictions to prevent runaway isoscapes when each isotope is modelled separately and cross-checked observed versus modelled d-excess values. We improved model error quantification by adopting full uncertainty propagation in all calculations. RCWIP2 improved the RMSE over previous isoscape models by ca. 0.3 ‰ for δ¹⁸O and 2.5 ‰ for δ²H with an uncertainty

Tundra dominates two-thirds of the unglaciated, terrestrial Arctic. Although this region has experienced rapid and widespread changes in vegetation phenology and productivity over the last several decades, the specific climatic drivers responsible for this change remain poorly understood. Here we quantified the effect of winter snowpack and early spring temperature conditions on growing season vegetation phenology (timing of the start, peak, and end of the growing season) and productivity of the dominant tundra vegetation communities of Arctic Alaska. We used daily remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and daily snowpack and temperature variables produced by SnowModel and MicroMet, coupled physically based snow and meteorological modeling tools, to (1) determine the most important snowpack and thermal controls on tundra vegetation phenology and productivity and (2) describe the direction of these relationships within each vegetation community. Our results show that soil temperature under the snowpack, snowmelt timing, and air temperature following snowmelt are the most important drivers of growing season timing and productivity among Arctic vegetation communities. Air temperature after snowmelt was the most important control on timing of season start and end, with warmer conditions contributing to earlier phenology in all vegetation communities. In contrast, the controls on the timing of peak season and productivity also included snowmelt timing and soil temperature under the snowpack, dictated in part by the snow insulating capacity. The results of this novel analysis suggest that while future warming effects on phenology may be consistent across communities of the tundra biome, warming may result in divergent, community-specific productivity responses if coupled with reduced snow insulating capacity lowers winter soil temperature and potential nutrient cycling in the soil.

Subarctic ecohydrological processes are changing rapidly, but detailed and integrated ecohydrological investigations are not as widespread as necessary. We introduce an integrated research catchment site (Pallas) for atmosphere, ecosystems, and ecohydrology studies in subarctic conditions in Finland that can be used for a new set of comparative catchment investigations. The Pallas site provides unique observational data and high-intensity field measurement datasets over long periods. The infrastructure for atmosphere- to landscape-scale research in ecosystem processes in a subarctic landscape has recently been complemented with detailed ecohydrological measurements. We identify three dominant processes in subarctic ecohydrology: (a) strong seasonality drives ecohydrological regimes, (b) limited dynamic storage causes rapid stream response to water inputs (snowmelt and intensive storms), and (c) hydrological state of the system regulates catchment-scale dissolved carbon dynamics and greenhouse (GHG) fluxes. Surface water and groundwater interactions play an important role in regulating catchment-scale carbon balances and ecosystem respiration within subarctic peatlands, particularly their spatial variability in the landscape. Based on our observations from Pallas, we highlight key research gaps in subarctic ecohydrology and propose several ways forward. We also demonstrate that the Pallas catchment meets the need for sustaining and pushing the boundaries of critical long-term integrated ecohydrological research in high-latitude environments.

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) rely on the short Arctic growing season to restore body condition, support the demands of lactation, and prepare for the long arctic winter, making them susceptible to even small changes in forage availability or quality. Body condition in the summer and autumn is linked to winter survival rates and fecundity in cows, critical factors in the productivity of caribou populations. Climate change predictions of warmer and wetter northern winters suggest increased snowfall over Alaska’s North Slope, which has recently been verified between 1995 and 2017. However, a comprehensive analysis of how deeper snow will affect caribou forage quality is absent across Alaska. In this study, we quantify how snow depth alters the quality and seasonality of caribou forage using a long-term (24 yr) International Tundra Experiment snow depth manipulation to evaluate how winter climate change scenarios may affect tussock tundra systems in northern Alaska. Deeper snow in prior winters leads to increases in growing season leaf N and digestible protein (DP) in deciduous shrubs (Salix spp. and Betula spp.) and graminoids (Carex spp. and Eriophorum spp.), but not evergreen dwarf shrubs (Rhododendron spp. and Vaccinium spp.). Dry matter digestibility varied among species with small differences (

Stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) compositions from vertebrate tooth enamel are widely used as biogeochemical proxies for paleoclimate. However, the utility of enamel oxygen isotope values for environmental reconstruction varies among species. Herein, we evaluate the use of stable oxygen isotope compositions from pronghorn (Antilocapra americana Gray, 1866) enamel for reconstructing paleoclimate seasonality, an elusive but important parameter for understanding past ecosystems. We serially sampled the lower third molars of recent adult pronghorn from Wyoming for δ18O in phosphate (δ18OPO4) and compared patterns to interpolated and measured yearly variation in environmental waters as well as from sagebrush leaves, lakes, and rivers (δ18Ow). As expected, the oxygen isotope compositions of phosphate from pronghorn enamel are enriched in 18O relative to environmental waters. For a more direct comparison, we converted δ18Ow values into expected δ18OPO4* values (δ18OW-PO4*). Pronghorn δ18OPO4 values from tooth enamel record nearly the full amplitude of seasonal variation from Wyoming δ18OW-PO4* values. Furthermore, pronghorn enamel δ18OPO4 values are more similar to modeled δ18OW-PO4* values from plant leaf waters than meteoric waters, suggesting that they obtain much of their water from evaporated plant waters. Collectively, our findings establish that seasonality in source water is reliably reflected in pronghorn enamel, providing the basis for exploring changes in the amplitude of seasonality of ancient climates. As a preliminary test, we sampled historical pronghorn specimens (1720 ± 100 AD), which show a mean decrease (a shift to lower values) of 1–2‰ in δ18 OPO4 compared to the modern specimens. They also exhibit an increase in the δ18O amplitude, representing an increase in seasonality. We suggest that the cooler mean annual and summer temperatures typical of the 18th century, as well as enhanced periods of drought, drove differences among the modern and historical pronghorn, further establishing pronghorn enamel as excellent sources of paleoclimate proxy data.

The rapid warming of the Arctic may not only alter species’ abundances and distributions, but likely also the trophic interactions within and between ecosystems. On the high‐arctic tundra, extreme warm spells and associated rain‐on‐snow events in winter can encapsulate the vegetation entirely in ground‐ice (i.e., basal ice) and directly or indirectly affect plants, herbivores, and carnivores. However, the implications of such extreme events for trophic interactions and food‐web ecology are generally far from understood. Here, we show that wild Svalbard reindeer populations increasingly isolated by lack of sea‐ice respond to rain‐on‐snow and ice‐locked pastures by increased kelp consumption. Based on annual population surveys in late winters 2006–2015, the proportion of individual reindeer feeding along the shoreline increased the icier the winter. Stable isotope values (δ³⁴S, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of plants, washed‐ashore kelp, and fresh reindeer feces collected along coast‐inland gradients, confirmed ingestion of marine biomass by the reindeer in the shoreline habitat. Thus, even on remote islands and peninsulas increasingly isolated by sea‐ice loss, effects of climate change may be buffered in part by behavioral plasticity and increased use of resource subsidies. This marine dimension of a terrestrial herbivore’s realized foraging niche adds to evidence that global warming significantly alters trophic interactions as well as meta‐ecosystem processes.

Climate change is creating phenological mismatches between herbivores and their plant resources throughout the Arctic. While advancing growing seasons and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores can have consequences for herbivores and forage quality, developing mismatches could also influence other traits of plants, such as above‐ and below‐ground biomass and the type of reproduction, that are often not investigated. In coastal western Alaska, we conducted a 3‐year factorial experiment that simulated scenarios of phenological mismatch by manipulating the start of the growing season (3 weeks early and ambient) and grazing times (3 weeks early, typical, 3 weeks late, or no‐grazing) of Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans), to examine how the timing of these events influence a primary goose forage species, Carex subspathacea. After 3 years, an advanced growing season compared to a typical growing season increased stem heights, standing dead biomass, and the number of inflorescences. Early season grazing compared to typical season grazing reduced above‐ and below‐ground biomass, stem height, and the number of tillers; while late season grazing increased the number of inflorescences and standing dead biomass. Therefore, an advanced growing season and late grazing had similar directional effects on most plant traits, but a 3‐week delay in grazing had an impact on traits 3–5 times greater than a similarly timed shift in the advancement of spring. In addition, changes in response to treatments for some variables, such as the number of inflorescences, were not measurable until the second year of the experiment, while other variables, such as root productivity and number of tillers, changed the direction of their responses to treatments over time. Synthesis. Factors affecting the timing of migration have a larger influence than earlier springs on an important forage species in the breeding and rearing habitats of Pacific black brant. The phenological mismatch prediction for this site of earlier springs and later goose arrival will likely increase above‐ and below‐ground biomass and sexual reproduction of the often‐clonally reproducing C. subspathacea. Finally, the implications of mismatch may be difficult to predict because some variables required successive years of mismatch to respond.

The advancement of spring and the differential ability of organisms to respond to changes in plant phenology may lead to “phenological mismatches” as a result of climate change. One potential for considerable mismatch is between migratory birds and food availability in northern breeding ranges, and these mismatches may have consequences for ecosystem function. We conducted a three‐year experiment to examine the consequences for CO₂ exchange of advanced spring green‐up and altered timing of grazing by migratory Pacific black brant in a coastal wetland in western Alaska. Experimental treatments represent the variation in green‐up and timing of peak grazing intensity that currently exists in the system. Delayed grazing resulted in greater net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP), while early grazing reduced CO₂ uptake with the potential of causing net ecosystem carbon (C) loss in late spring and early summer. Conversely, advancing the growing season only influenced ecosystem respiration (ER), resulting in a small increase in ER with no concomitant impact on GPP or NEE. The experimental treatment that represents the most likely future, with green‐up advancing more rapidly than arrival of migratory geese, results in NEE changing by 1.2 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹ toward a greater CO₂ sink in spring and summer. Increased sink strength, however, may be mitigated by early arrival of migratory geese, which would reduce CO₂ uptake. Importantly, while the direct effect of climate warming on phenology of green‐up has a minimal influence on NEE, the indirect effect of climate warming manifest through changes in the timing of peak grazing can have a significant impact on C balance in northern coastal wetlands. Furthermore, processes influencing the timing of goose migration in the winter range can significantly influence ecosystem function in summer habitats.

Observational and experimental studies have generally shown that warming is associated with greater growth and abundance of deciduous shrubs in arctic ecosystems. It is uncertain, however, if this trend will persist in the future. Our study examined growth responses of deciduous shrubs to climate change over the late 20th and early 21st centuries near Kangerlussuaq in western Greenland. We combined shrub dendrochronology, stable isotope analysis and weekly measurements of leaf gas exchange to examine the drivers of secondary growth in two widespread and dominant deciduous shrub species: Salix glauca and Betula nana. Betula showed a dramatic growth decline beginning in the early 1990s, when correlations between growing season air temperature and growth shifted from neutral to strongly negative. Salix also showed a growth decline, but it began slightly later and was more pronounced among older stems. May–August mean air temperature of c. 7°C appeared to be an important threshold. Carbon isotope discrimination (∆¹³C) in α-cellulose of Salix growth rings declined strongly during the period of reduced growth, suggesting drought-induced stomatal closure as a possible cause. Leaf gas exchange of Salix was also highly sensitive to seasonal variation in moisture availability. Betula growth declined more dramatically than Salix, but leaf gas exchange was less sensitive to moisture availability and there was less evidence of a ∆¹³C trend. We hypothesize that the dramatic Betula growth decline might reflect the combined effects of increasing moisture limitation, repeated defoliation during recent moth outbreaks and greater browsing by a growing muskoxen population. Synthesis. Our findings contrast with widespread observations of increasing shrub growth in the Arctic and instead point to a potential decline in the flux of carbon into a pool with a long mean residence time (wood). While our study area is warmer and drier than much of the Arctic, our results may serve as an early indicator of potential effects of rising temperature in other arctic ecosystems.