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This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2 (pCO2 products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 4171-4179, doi:10.1029/2017GL076498., Estimated rates and efficiency of ocean carbon export flux are sensitive to differences in the depth horizons used to define export, which often vary across methodological approaches. We evaluate sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) flux rates and efficiency (e‐ratios) in a global earth system model, using a range of commonly used depth horizons: the seasonal mixed layer depth, the particle compensation depth, the base of the euphotic zone, a fixed depth horizon of 100 m, and the maximum annual mixed layer depth. Within this single dynamically consistent model framework, global POC flux rates vary by 30% and global e‐ratios by 21% across different depth horizon choices. Zonal variability in POC flux and e‐ratio also depends on the export depth horizon due to pronounced influence of deep winter mixing in subpolar regions. Efforts to reconcile conflicting estimates of export need to account for these systematic discrepancies created by differing depth horizon choices., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI); National Science Foundation Grant Number: OCE‐1434000, 2018-10-23

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 4171-4179, doi:10.1029/2017GL076498., Estimated rates and efficiency of ocean carbon export flux are sensitive to differences in the depth horizons used to define export, which often vary across methodological approaches. We evaluate sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) flux rates and efficiency (e‐ratios) in a global earth system model, using a range of commonly used depth horizons: the seasonal mixed layer depth, the particle compensation depth, the base of the euphotic zone, a fixed depth horizon of 100 m, and the maximum annual mixed layer depth. Within this single dynamically consistent model framework, global POC flux rates vary by 30% and global e‐ratios by 21% across different depth horizon choices. Zonal variability in POC flux and e‐ratio also depends on the export depth horizon due to pronounced influence of deep winter mixing in subpolar regions. Efforts to reconcile conflicting estimates of export need to account for these systematic discrepancies created by differing depth horizon choices., Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI); National Science Foundation Grant Number: OCE‐1434000, 2018-10-23

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 123 (2018): 1796-1816, doi:10.1029/2017JG004263., Gross photosynthetic activity by phytoplankton is directed to linear and alternative electron pathways that generate ATP, reductant, and fix carbon. Ultimately less than half is directed to net growth. Here we present a phytoplankton cell allocation model that explicitly represents a number of cell metabolic processes and functional pools with the goal of evaluating ATP and reductant demands as a function of light, nitrate, iron, oxygen, and temperature for diazotrophic versus nondiazotrophic growth. We employ model analogues of Synechoccocus and Crocosphaera watsonii, to explore the trade‐offs of diazotrophy over a range of environmental conditions. Model analogues are identical in construction, except for an iron quota associated with nitrogenase, an additional respiratory demand to remove oxygen in order to protect nitrogenase and an additional ATP demand to split dinitrogen. We find that these changes explain observed differences in growth rate and iron limitation between diazotrophs and nondiazotrophs. Oxygen removal imparted a significantly larger metabolic cost to diazotrophs than ATP demand for fixing nitrogen. Results suggest that diazotrophs devote a much smaller fraction of gross photosynthetic energy to growth than nondiazotrophs. The phytoplankton cell allocation model model provides a predictive framework for how photosynthate allocation varies with environmental conditions in order to balance cellular demands for ATP and reductant across phytoplankton functional groups., DOC | NOAA | Climate Program Office (CPO) Grant Number: NA100AR4310093; National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant Number: EF‐0424599; Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (CMORE) Grant Number: NSF EF‐0424599; NOAA Global Carbon Program Grant Number: NA100AR4310093, 2018-11-01

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 123 (2018): 1796-1816, doi:10.1029/2017JG004263., Gross photosynthetic activity by phytoplankton is directed to linear and alternative electron pathways that generate ATP, reductant, and fix carbon. Ultimately less than half is directed to net growth. Here we present a phytoplankton cell allocation model that explicitly represents a number of cell metabolic processes and functional pools with the goal of evaluating ATP and reductant demands as a function of light, nitrate, iron, oxygen, and temperature for diazotrophic versus nondiazotrophic growth. We employ model analogues of Synechoccocus and Crocosphaera watsonii, to explore the trade‐offs of diazotrophy over a range of environmental conditions. Model analogues are identical in construction, except for an iron quota associated with nitrogenase, an additional respiratory demand to remove oxygen in order to protect nitrogenase and an additional ATP demand to split dinitrogen. We find that these changes explain observed differences in growth rate and iron limitation between diazotrophs and nondiazotrophs. Oxygen removal imparted a significantly larger metabolic cost to diazotrophs than ATP demand for fixing nitrogen. Results suggest that diazotrophs devote a much smaller fraction of gross photosynthetic energy to growth than nondiazotrophs. The phytoplankton cell allocation model model provides a predictive framework for how photosynthate allocation varies with environmental conditions in order to balance cellular demands for ATP and reductant across phytoplankton functional groups., DOC | NOAA | Climate Program Office (CPO) Grant Number: NA100AR4310093; National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant Number: EF‐0424599; Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (CMORE) Grant Number: NSF EF‐0424599; NOAA Global Carbon Program Grant Number: NA100AR4310093, 2018-11-01

© The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123 (2018): 22–39, doi:10.1002/2017JC013023., Mesoscale (10–300 km, weeks to months) physical variability strongly modulates the structure and dynamics of planktonic marine ecosystems via both turbulent advection and environmental impacts upon biological rates. Using structure function analysis (geostatistics), we quantify the mesoscale biological signals within global 13 year SeaWiFS (1998–2010) and 8 year MODIS/Aqua (2003–2010) chlorophyll a ocean color data (Level-3, 9 km resolution). We present geographical distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of key geostatistical parameters: unresolved variability or noise, resolved variability, and spatial range. Resolved variability is nearly identical for both instruments, indicating that geostatistical techniques isolate a robust measure of biophysical mesoscale variability largely independent of measurement platform. In contrast, unresolved variability in MODIS/Aqua is substantially lower than in SeaWiFS, especially in oligotrophic waters where previous analysis identified a problem for the SeaWiFS instrument likely due to sensor noise characteristics. Both records exhibit a statistically significant relationship between resolved mesoscale variability and the low-pass filtered chlorophyll field horizontal gradient magnitude, consistent with physical stirring acting on large-scale gradient as an important factor supporting observed mesoscale variability. Comparable horizontal length scales for variability are found from tracer-based scaling arguments and geostatistical decorrelation. Regional variations between these length scales may reflect scale dependence of biological mechanisms that also create variability directly at the mesoscale, for example, enhanced net phytoplankton growth in coastal and frontal upwelling and convective mixing regions. Global estimates of mesoscale biophysical variability provide an improved basis for evaluating higher resolution, coupled ecosystem-ocean general circulation models, and data assimilation., NASA's Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Grant Numbers: NNG05GG30G, NNG05GR34G, NNX14AM36G, NNX14AL86G, NNX15AE65G; Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

© The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123 (2018): 22–39, doi:10.1002/2017JC013023., Mesoscale (10–300 km, weeks to months) physical variability strongly modulates the structure and dynamics of planktonic marine ecosystems via both turbulent advection and environmental impacts upon biological rates. Using structure function analysis (geostatistics), we quantify the mesoscale biological signals within global 13 year SeaWiFS (1998–2010) and 8 year MODIS/Aqua (2003–2010) chlorophyll a ocean color data (Level-3, 9 km resolution). We present geographical distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of key geostatistical parameters: unresolved variability or noise, resolved variability, and spatial range. Resolved variability is nearly identical for both instruments, indicating that geostatistical techniques isolate a robust measure of biophysical mesoscale variability largely independent of measurement platform. In contrast, unresolved variability in MODIS/Aqua is substantially lower than in SeaWiFS, especially in oligotrophic waters where previous analysis identified a problem for the SeaWiFS instrument likely due to sensor noise characteristics. Both records exhibit a statistically significant relationship between resolved mesoscale variability and the low-pass filtered chlorophyll field horizontal gradient magnitude, consistent with physical stirring acting on large-scale gradient as an important factor supporting observed mesoscale variability. Comparable horizontal length scales for variability are found from tracer-based scaling arguments and geostatistical decorrelation. Regional variations between these length scales may reflect scale dependence of biological mechanisms that also create variability directly at the mesoscale, for example, enhanced net phytoplankton growth in coastal and frontal upwelling and convective mixing regions. Global estimates of mesoscale biophysical variability provide an improved basis for evaluating higher resolution, coupled ecosystem-ocean general circulation models, and data assimilation., NASA's Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Grant Numbers: NNG05GG30G, NNG05GR34G, NNX14AM36G, NNX14AL86G, NNX15AE65G; Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 (2018): 1460–1477, doi:10.1002/2017JD027836., Space-borne observations of CO2 are vital to gaining understanding of the carbon cycle in regions of the world that are difficult to measure directly, such as the tropical terrestrial biosphere, the high northern and southern latitudes, and in developing nations such as China. Measurements from passive instruments such as GOSAT and OCO-2, however, are constrained by solar zenith angle limitations as well as sensitivity to the presence of clouds and aerosols. Active measurements such as those in development for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission show strong potential for making measurements in the high-latitude winter and in cloudy regions. In this work we examine the enhanced flux constraint provided by the improved coverage from an active measurement such as ASCENDS. The simulation studies presented here show that with sufficient precision, ASCENDS will detect permafrost thaw and fossil fuel emissions shifts at annual and seasonal time scales, even in the presence of transport errors, representativeness errors, and biogenic flux errors. While OCO-2 can detect some of these perturbations at the annual scale, the seasonal sampling provided by ASCENDS provides the stronger constraint., NASA Grant Numbers: NNX15AJ27G, NNX15AH13G, 2018-07-29

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123 (2018): 1460–1477, doi:10.1002/2017JD027836., Space-borne observations of CO2 are vital to gaining understanding of the carbon cycle in regions of the world that are difficult to measure directly, such as the tropical terrestrial biosphere, the high northern and southern latitudes, and in developing nations such as China. Measurements from passive instruments such as GOSAT and OCO-2, however, are constrained by solar zenith angle limitations as well as sensitivity to the presence of clouds and aerosols. Active measurements such as those in development for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission show strong potential for making measurements in the high-latitude winter and in cloudy regions. In this work we examine the enhanced flux constraint provided by the improved coverage from an active measurement such as ASCENDS. The simulation studies presented here show that with sufficient precision, ASCENDS will detect permafrost thaw and fossil fuel emissions shifts at annual and seasonal time scales, even in the presence of transport errors, representativeness errors, and biogenic flux errors. While OCO-2 can detect some of these perturbations at the annual scale, the seasonal sampling provided by ASCENDS provides the stronger constraint., NASA Grant Numbers: NNX15AJ27G, NNX15AH13G, 2018-07-29

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9387–9398, doi:10.1002/2017JC012949., Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic have warmed dramatically over the last several decades, while benthic temperatures have increased at a slower pace. Here we analyze a subset of the CMIP5 global Earth system model ensemble using a statistical downscaling approach to determine potential future changes in benthic temperatures on the northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope (<500 m). We put future changes in the context of possible impacts of ocean warming on the high-value, wild-caught American Lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. Future bottom temperatures of the northwest Atlantic under a business-as-usual (RCP8.5) and a climate-policy (RCP4.5) scenario are projected to increase by 0–1.5°C and 1.2–2.4°C by 2050 and 0–1.9°C and 2.3–4.3°C by the end of the century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. H. americanus experiences thermal stress at temperatures above 20°C, and projected increases in temperature is likely to result in changes in the distribution of optimal thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators. Inshore regions of southern New England, where H. americanus biomass and catch have been declining historically, will likely become inhospitable under either future scenario, while thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators will expand offshore and in the Gulf of Maine. These changes imply that members of the fishery based in southern New England may need to recapitalize to larger vessels to prepare for potential changes brought on by future climate warming. Results from the downscaling presented here can be useful in preparing for potential changes to other fisheries or in future climate vulnerability analyses., John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14-106159-000-CFP; NASA Grant Number: NNX14AP62A; “National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)”; National Ocean Partnership Program Grant Number: NOPP RFP NOAA-NOS IOOS-2014-2003803; NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Program Office

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9399–9414, doi:10.1002/2017JC012953., The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes., John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14–106159-000-CFP; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant Number: NNX14AP62A

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9399–9414, doi:10.1002/2017JC012953., The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes., John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14–106159-000-CFP; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant Number: NNX14AP62A

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9387–9398, doi:10.1002/2017JC012949., Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic have warmed dramatically over the last several decades, while benthic temperatures have increased at a slower pace. Here we analyze a subset of the CMIP5 global Earth system model ensemble using a statistical downscaling approach to determine potential future changes in benthic temperatures on the northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope (<500 m). We put future changes in the context of possible impacts of ocean warming on the high-value, wild-caught American Lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. Future bottom temperatures of the northwest Atlantic under a business-as-usual (RCP8.5) and a climate-policy (RCP4.5) scenario are projected to increase by 0–1.5°C and 1.2–2.4°C by 2050 and 0–1.9°C and 2.3–4.3°C by the end of the century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. H. americanus experiences thermal stress at temperatures above 20°C, and projected increases in temperature is likely to result in changes in the distribution of optimal thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators. Inshore regions of southern New England, where H. americanus biomass and catch have been declining historically, will likely become inhospitable under either future scenario, while thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators will expand offshore and in the Gulf of Maine. These changes imply that members of the fishery based in southern New England may need to recapitalize to larger vessels to prepare for potential changes brought on by future climate warming. Results from the downscaling presented here can be useful in preparing for potential changes to other fisheries or in future climate vulnerability analyses., John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14-106159-000-CFP; NASA Grant Number: NNX14AP62A; “National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)”; National Ocean Partnership Program Grant Number: NOPP RFP NOAA-NOS IOOS-2014-2003803; NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Program Office

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 96–113, doi:10.1002/2016GB005374., Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation., National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: AGS 1049033, CCF-1522054, 2017-07-23

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 96–113, doi:10.1002/2016GB005374., Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation., National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: AGS 1049033, CCF-1522054, 2017-07-23

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 922–940, doi:10.1002/2016GB005615., A coupled global numerical simulation (conducted with the Community Earth System Model) is used in conjunction with satellite remote sensing observations to examine the role of top-down (grazing pressure) and bottom-up (light, nutrients) controls on marine phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the Southern Ocean. Phytoplankton seasonal phenology is evaluated in the context of the recently proposed “disturbance-recovery” hypothesis relative to more traditional, exclusively “bottom-up” frameworks. All blooms occur when phytoplankton division rates exceed loss rates to permit sustained net population growth; however, the nature of this decoupling period varies regionally in Community Earth System Model. Regional case studies illustrate how unique pathways allow blooms to emerge despite very poor division rates or very strong grazing rates. In the Subantarctic, southeast Pacific small spring blooms initiate early cooccurring with deep mixing and low division rates, consistent with the disturbance-recovery hypothesis. Similar systematics are present in the Subantarctic, southwest Atlantic during the spring but are eclipsed by a subsequent, larger summer bloom that is coincident with shallow mixing and the annual maximum in division rates, consistent with a bottom-up, light limited framework. In the model simulation, increased iron stress prevents a similar summer bloom in the southeast Pacific. In the simulated Antarctic zone (70°S–65°S) seasonal sea ice acts as a dominant phytoplankton-zooplankton decoupling agent, triggering a delayed but substantial bloom as ice recedes. Satellite ocean color remote sensing and ocean physical reanalysis products do not precisely match model-predicted phenology, but observed patterns do indicate regional variability in mechanism across the Atlantic and Pacific., NDSEG Graduate Fellowship; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program Grant Number: NNX14L86G; NSF Poloar Programs Award Grant Number: 1440435; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant Number: NNX14AL86G; NDSEG; National Science Foundation Grant Number: 1440435, 2017-11-30

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 922–940, doi:10.1002/2016GB005615., A coupled global numerical simulation (conducted with the Community Earth System Model) is used in conjunction with satellite remote sensing observations to examine the role of top-down (grazing pressure) and bottom-up (light, nutrients) controls on marine phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the Southern Ocean. Phytoplankton seasonal phenology is evaluated in the context of the recently proposed “disturbance-recovery” hypothesis relative to more traditional, exclusively “bottom-up” frameworks. All blooms occur when phytoplankton division rates exceed loss rates to permit sustained net population growth; however, the nature of this decoupling period varies regionally in Community Earth System Model. Regional case studies illustrate how unique pathways allow blooms to emerge despite very poor division rates or very strong grazing rates. In the Subantarctic, southeast Pacific small spring blooms initiate early cooccurring with deep mixing and low division rates, consistent with the disturbance-recovery hypothesis. Similar systematics are present in the Subantarctic, southwest Atlantic during the spring but are eclipsed by a subsequent, larger summer bloom that is coincident with shallow mixing and the annual maximum in division rates, consistent with a bottom-up, light limited framework. In the model simulation, increased iron stress prevents a similar summer bloom in the southeast Pacific. In the simulated Antarctic zone (70°S–65°S) seasonal sea ice acts as a dominant phytoplankton-zooplankton decoupling agent, triggering a delayed but substantial bloom as ice recedes. Satellite ocean color remote sensing and ocean physical reanalysis products do not precisely match model-predicted phenology, but observed patterns do indicate regional variability in mechanism across the Atlantic and Pacific., NDSEG Graduate Fellowship; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program Grant Number: NNX14L86G; NSF Poloar Programs Award Grant Number: 1440435; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant Number: NNX14AL86G; NDSEG; National Science Foundation Grant Number: 1440435, 2017-11-30

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 121 (2016): 2369–2389, doi:10.1002/2015JG003311., We analyzed 20 years (1993–2013) of observations of dissolved inorganic macronutrients (nitrate, N; phosphate, P; and silicate, Si) and chlorophyll a (Chl) at Palmer Station, Antarctica (64.8°S, 64.1°W) to elucidate how large-scale climate and local physical forcing affect the interannual variability in the seasonal phytoplankton bloom and associated drawdown of nutrients. The leading modes of nutrients (N, P, and Si empirical orthogonal functions 1, EOF1) represent overall negative anomalies throughout growing seasons, showing a mixed signal of variability in the initial levels and drawdown thereafter (low-frequency dynamics). The second most common seasonal patterns of nitrate and phosphate (N and P EOF2) capture prolonged drawdown events during December–March, which are correlated to Chl EOF1. Si EOF2 captures a drawdown event during November–December, which is correlated to Chl EOF2. These different drawdown patterns are shaped by different sets of physical and climate forcing mechanisms. N and P drawdown events during December–March are influenced by the winter and spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, where nutrient utilization is enhanced in a stabilized upper water column as a consequence of SAM-driven winter sea ice and spring wind dynamics. Si drawdown during November–December is influenced by early sea ice retreat, where ice breakup may induce abrupt water column stratification and a subsequent diatom bloom or release of diatom cells from within the sea ice. Our findings underscore that seasonal nutrient dynamics in the coastal WAP are coupled to large-scale climate forcing and related physics, understanding of which may enable improved projections of biogeochemical responses to climate change., U.S. National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OPP-9011927, 9632763, 0217282, 0823101, GEO-PLR 1440435; NASA ROSES Grant Number: NNX14AL86G, 2017-03-17

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 4618–4632, doi:10.1002/2016JC011775., In order to understand the ocean's role as a sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to quantify changes in the amount of anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean interior over time. From August to September 2012, an ocean acidification cruise was conducted along a portion of the P17N transect (50°N 150°W to 33.5°N 135°W) in the Northeast Pacific. These measurements are compared with data from the previous occupation of this transect in 2001 to estimate the change in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Northeast Pacific using an extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) approach. Maximum increases in the surface waters were 11 µmol kg−1 over 11 years near 50°N. Here, the penetration depth of anthropogenic CO2 only reached ∼300 m depth, whereas at 33.5°N, penetration depth reached ∼600 m. The average increase of the depth-integrated anthropogenic carbon inventory was 0.41 ± 0.12 mol m−2 yr−1 across the transect. Lower values down to 0.20 mol m−2 yr−1 were observed in the northern part of the transect near 50°N and increased up to 0.55 mol m−2 yr−1 toward 33.5°N. This increase in anthropogenic carbon in the upper ocean resulted in an average pH decrease of 0.002 ± 0.0003 pH units yr−1 and a 1.8 ± 0.4 m yr−1 shoaling rate of the aragonite saturation horizon. An average increase in apparent oxygen utilization of 13.4 ± 15.5 µmol kg−1 centered on isopycnal surface 26.6 kg m−3 from 2001 to 2012 was also observed., National Science Foundation Ocean Acidification Program Grant Number: OCE-1041068; National Institute of Standards and Technology Grant Number: (NIST-60NANB10D024); National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program, 2017-01-02

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 4618–4632, doi:10.1002/2016JC011775., In order to understand the ocean's role as a sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to quantify changes in the amount of anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean interior over time. From August to September 2012, an ocean acidification cruise was conducted along a portion of the P17N transect (50°N 150°W to 33.5°N 135°W) in the Northeast Pacific. These measurements are compared with data from the previous occupation of this transect in 2001 to estimate the change in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Northeast Pacific using an extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) approach. Maximum increases in the surface waters were 11 µmol kg−1 over 11 years near 50°N. Here, the penetration depth of anthropogenic CO2 only reached ∼300 m depth, whereas at 33.5°N, penetration depth reached ∼600 m. The average increase of the depth-integrated anthropogenic carbon inventory was 0.41 ± 0.12 mol m−2 yr−1 across the transect. Lower values down to 0.20 mol m−2 yr−1 were observed in the northern part of the transect near 50°N and increased up to 0.55 mol m−2 yr−1 toward 33.5°N. This increase in anthropogenic carbon in the upper ocean resulted in an average pH decrease of 0.002 ± 0.0003 pH units yr−1 and a 1.8 ± 0.4 m yr−1 shoaling rate of the aragonite saturation horizon. An average increase in apparent oxygen utilization of 13.4 ± 15.5 µmol kg−1 centered on isopycnal surface 26.6 kg m−3 from 2001 to 2012 was also observed., National Science Foundation Ocean Acidification Program Grant Number: OCE-1041068; National Institute of Standards and Technology Grant Number: (NIST-60NANB10D024); National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program, 2017-01-02

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 4618–4632, doi:10.1002/2016JC011775., In order to understand the ocean's role as a sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to quantify changes in the amount of anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean interior over time. From August to September 2012, an ocean acidification cruise was conducted along a portion of the P17N transect (50°N 150°W to 33.5°N 135°W) in the Northeast Pacific. These measurements are compared with data from the previous occupation of this transect in 2001 to estimate the change in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory in the Northeast Pacific using an extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) approach. Maximum increases in the surface waters were 11 µmol kg−1 over 11 years near 50°N. Here, the penetration depth of anthropogenic CO2 only reached ∼300 m depth, whereas at 33.5°N, penetration depth reached ∼600 m. The average increase of the depth-integrated anthropogenic carbon inventory was 0.41 ± 0.12 mol m−2 yr−1 across the transect. Lower values down to 0.20 mol m−2 yr−1 were observed in the northern part of the transect near 50°N and increased up to 0.55 mol m−2 yr−1 toward 33.5°N. This increase in anthropogenic carbon in the upper ocean resulted in an average pH decrease of 0.002 ± 0.0003 pH units yr−1 and a 1.8 ± 0.4 m yr−1 shoaling rate of the aragonite saturation horizon. An average increase in apparent oxygen utilization of 13.4 ± 15.5 µmol kg−1 centered on isopycnal surface 26.6 kg m−3 from 2001 to 2012 was also observed., National Science Foundation Ocean Acidification Program Grant Number: OCE-1041068; National Institute of Standards and Technology Grant Number: (NIST-60NANB10D024); National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program, 2017-01-02

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 121 (2016): 2369–2389, doi:10.1002/2015JG003311., We analyzed 20 years (1993–2013) of observations of dissolved inorganic macronutrients (nitrate, N; phosphate, P; and silicate, Si) and chlorophyll a (Chl) at Palmer Station, Antarctica (64.8°S, 64.1°W) to elucidate how large-scale climate and local physical forcing affect the interannual variability in the seasonal phytoplankton bloom and associated drawdown of nutrients. The leading modes of nutrients (N, P, and Si empirical orthogonal functions 1, EOF1) represent overall negative anomalies throughout growing seasons, showing a mixed signal of variability in the initial levels and drawdown thereafter (low-frequency dynamics). The second most common seasonal patterns of nitrate and phosphate (N and P EOF2) capture prolonged drawdown events during December–March, which are correlated to Chl EOF1. Si EOF2 captures a drawdown event during November–December, which is correlated to Chl EOF2. These different drawdown patterns are shaped by different sets of physical and climate forcing mechanisms. N and P drawdown events during December–March are influenced by the winter and spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, where nutrient utilization is enhanced in a stabilized upper water column as a consequence of SAM-driven winter sea ice and spring wind dynamics. Si drawdown during November–December is influenced by early sea ice retreat, where ice breakup may induce abrupt water column stratification and a subsequent diatom bloom or release of diatom cells from within the sea ice. Our findings underscore that seasonal nutrient dynamics in the coastal WAP are coupled to large-scale climate forcing and related physics, understanding of which may enable improved projections of biogeochemical responses to climate change., U.S. National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OPP-9011927, 9632763, 0217282, 0823101, GEO-PLR 1440435; NASA ROSES Grant Number: NNX14AL86G, 2017-03-17

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 28 (2014): 1295–1310, doi:10.1002/2014GB004890., The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 K−1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses., This work was supported by the Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research Division, the National Science Foundation Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) program (NSF AGS 1048890 and AGS 1048827), and NASA Carbon Cycle Science (NASA NNX11AF96G). G.K.A. acknowledges a NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship. J.B.M. and E.J.D. thank NOAA's Climate Program Office's Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, and Climate (AC4) program for support

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 1794–1807, doi:10.1002/2014JD022483., Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) offer novel and distinctive opportunities for improving our quantitative understanding of the carbon cycle. Prospective observations include those from space-based lidar such as the active sensing of CO2 emissions over nights, days, and seasons (ASCENDS) mission. Here we explore the ability of such a mission to detect regional changes in CO2 fluxes. We investigate these using three prototypical case studies, namely, the thawing of permafrost in the northern high latitudes, the shifting of fossil fuel emissions from Europe to China, and changes in the source/sink characteristics of the Southern Ocean. These three scenarios were used to design signal detection studies to investigate the ability to detect the unfolding of these scenarios compared to a baseline scenario. Results indicate that the ASCENDS mission could detect the types of signals investigated in this study, with the caveat that the study is based on some simplifying assumptions. The permafrost thawing flux perturbation is readily detectable at a high level of significance. The fossil fuel emission detectability is directly related to the strength of the signal and the level of measurement noise. For a nominal (lower) fossil fuel emission signal, only the idealized noise-free instrument test case produces a clearly detectable signal, while experiments with more realistic noise levels capture the signal only in the higher (exaggerated) signal case. For the Southern Ocean scenario, differences due to the natural variability in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climatic mode are primarily detectable as a zonal increase., This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX08AJ92G issued through the Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences Carbon Cycle Science program and by Jet Propulsion Laboratory subcontract 1442785 as well as the ASCENDS Science Requirements Definition Team. S. Doney acknowledges support from U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1048827). K. Schaefer acknowledges support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grant NA09OAR4310063 and from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX10AR63G., 2015-09-11

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 744–759, doi:10.1002/2014GB005079., Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback., We are grateful for support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and the National Science Foundation (NSF). J.T.R. and F.H. received support from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. J.T.R., K.L., E.M., W.F., J.K.M., S.C.D., and N.N.M. received funding from the NSF project “Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle“ (AGS-1048827, AGS-1021776, and AGS-1048890). The Community Earth System Modeling project receives support from both NSF and BER., 2015-12-02

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1471–1494, doi:10.1002/2014GB005037., The direct respiration of sinking organic matter by attached bacteria is often invoked as the dominant sink for settling particles in the mesopelagic ocean. However, other processes, such as enzymatic solubilization and mechanical disaggregation, also contribute to particle flux attenuation by transferring organic matter to the water column. Here we use observations from the North Atlantic Ocean, coupled to sensitivity analyses of a simple model, to assess the relative importance of particle-attached microbial respiration compared to the other processes that can degrade sinking particles. The observed carbon fluxes, bacterial production rates, and respiration by water column and particle-attached microbial communities each spanned more than an order of magnitude. Rates of substrate-specific respiration on sinking particle material ranged from 0.007 ± 0.003 to 0.173 ± 0.105 day−1. A comparison of these substrate-specific respiration rates with model results suggested sinking particle material was transferred to the water column by various biological and mechanical processes nearly 3.5 times as fast as it was directly respired. This finding, coupled with strong metabolic demand imposed by measurements of water column respiration (729.3 ± 266.0 mg C m−2 d−1, on average, over the 50 to 150 m depth interval), suggested a large fraction of the organic matter evolved from sinking particles ultimately met its fate through subsequent remineralization in the water column. At three sites, we also measured very low bacterial growth efficiencies and large discrepancies between depth-integrated mesopelagic respiration and carbon inputs., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) STAR Grant Number: FP-91744301-0; National Science Foundation Grant Numbers OCE-1061883, EF-0424599, OCE-1155438, OCE-1059884, OCE-1031143; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Grant Numbers: 3301, 3789; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2016-03-25

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1165–1178, doi:10.1002/2015GB005106., Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia (NHx(sw)), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here we compare [NHx(sw)] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [NHx(sw)] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NHx within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a−1, much lower than current literature values (7–23 TgN a−1), including the widely used Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA) inventory (8 TgN a−1). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NHx over most of the ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2–5 TgN a−1, comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils., NSF Grant Numbers: AGS-1020594, EF-0424599; WHOI Grant Number: AGS-0328342; UVA; UK SOLAS Knowledge Transfer; SOLAS Project Integration Grant Number: NE/E001696/1, 2016-02-13

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 4032–4039, doi:10.1002/2015GL063065., Using autonomous underwater gliders, we quantified diurnal periodicity in dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, and temperature in the subtropical North Pacific near the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Station ALOHA during summer 2012. Oxygen optodes provided sufficient stability and precision to quantify diel cycles of average amplitude of 0.6 µmol kg−1. A theoretical diel curve was fit to daily observations to infer an average mixed layer gross primary productivity (GPP) of 1.8 mmol O2 m−3 d−1. Cumulative net community production (NCP) over 110 days was 500 mmol O2 m−2 for the mixed layer, which averaged 57 m in depth. Both GPP and NCP estimates indicated a significant period of below-average productivity at Station ALOHA in 2012, an observation confirmed by 14C productivity incubations and O2/Ar ratios. Given our success in an oligotrophic gyre where biological signals are small, our diel GPP approach holds promise for remote characterization of productivity across the spectrum of marine environments., The authors acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through an NSF Science and Technology Center, the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE; NSF EF-0424599). D.N. also was supported by NSF (OCE-1129644) and an Independent Study Award from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). D.M.K. was also supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. WHOI Summer Student Fellow Cole Stites-Clayton, Stanford University, contributed to early stages of Seaglider data analysis and was supported by an NSF REU grant to WHOI (OCE-1156952).

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 4931–4939, doi:10.1002/2015GL064431., The oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, lowering surface ocean pH, a concern for calcifying marine organisms. The impact of ocean acidification is challenging to predict as each species appears to respond differently and because our knowledge of natural changes to ocean pH is limited in both time and space. Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis. Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the coral-derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone., Funding to N.F.G. was provided by the University of Hong Kong and the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Singapore NRF Fellowship scheme (National Research Fellow Award NRF-RF2012-03), as administered by the Earth Observatory of Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. S.C.D. and K.A.H. acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1451–1470, doi:10.1002/2015GB005140., We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44°S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58°S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58°S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2(aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44°S, all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44°S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30°S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (∼10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic, CARBOCHANGE Grant Number: 264879; Palmer LTER Project Grant Number: NSF PLR-1440435

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1165–1178, doi:10.1002/2015GB005106., Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia (NHx(sw)), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here we compare [NHx(sw)] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [NHx(sw)] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NHx within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a−1, much lower than current literature values (7–23 TgN a−1), including the widely used Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA) inventory (8 TgN a−1). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NHx over most of the ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2–5 TgN a−1, comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils., NSF Grant Numbers: AGS-1020594, EF-0424599; WHOI Grant Number: AGS-0328342; UVA; UK SOLAS Knowledge Transfer; SOLAS Project Integration Grant Number: NE/E001696/1, 2016-02-13

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 744–759, doi:10.1002/2014GB005079., Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback., We are grateful for support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and the National Science Foundation (NSF). J.T.R. and F.H. received support from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. J.T.R., K.L., E.M., W.F., J.K.M., S.C.D., and N.N.M. received funding from the NSF project “Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle“ (AGS-1048827, AGS-1021776, and AGS-1048890). The Community Earth System Modeling project receives support from both NSF and BER., 2015-12-02

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 4931–4939, doi:10.1002/2015GL064431., The oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, lowering surface ocean pH, a concern for calcifying marine organisms. The impact of ocean acidification is challenging to predict as each species appears to respond differently and because our knowledge of natural changes to ocean pH is limited in both time and space. Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis. Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the coral-derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone., Funding to N.F.G. was provided by the University of Hong Kong and the National Research Foundation Singapore under its Singapore NRF Fellowship scheme (National Research Fellow Award NRF-RF2012-03), as administered by the Earth Observatory of Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. S.C.D. and K.A.H. acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1471–1494, doi:10.1002/2014GB005037., The direct respiration of sinking organic matter by attached bacteria is often invoked as the dominant sink for settling particles in the mesopelagic ocean. However, other processes, such as enzymatic solubilization and mechanical disaggregation, also contribute to particle flux attenuation by transferring organic matter to the water column. Here we use observations from the North Atlantic Ocean, coupled to sensitivity analyses of a simple model, to assess the relative importance of particle-attached microbial respiration compared to the other processes that can degrade sinking particles. The observed carbon fluxes, bacterial production rates, and respiration by water column and particle-attached microbial communities each spanned more than an order of magnitude. Rates of substrate-specific respiration on sinking particle material ranged from 0.007 ± 0.003 to 0.173 ± 0.105 day−1. A comparison of these substrate-specific respiration rates with model results suggested sinking particle material was transferred to the water column by various biological and mechanical processes nearly 3.5 times as fast as it was directly respired. This finding, coupled with strong metabolic demand imposed by measurements of water column respiration (729.3 ± 266.0 mg C m−2 d−1, on average, over the 50 to 150 m depth interval), suggested a large fraction of the organic matter evolved from sinking particles ultimately met its fate through subsequent remineralization in the water column. At three sites, we also measured very low bacterial growth efficiencies and large discrepancies between depth-integrated mesopelagic respiration and carbon inputs., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) STAR Grant Number: FP-91744301-0; National Science Foundation Grant Numbers OCE-1061883, EF-0424599, OCE-1155438, OCE-1059884, OCE-1031143; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Grant Numbers: 3301, 3789; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2016-03-25

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 1451–1470, doi:10.1002/2015GB005140., We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44°S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58°S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58°S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2(aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44°S, all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44°S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30°S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (∼10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic, CARBOCHANGE Grant Number: 264879; Palmer LTER Project Grant Number: NSF PLR-1440435

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 4032–4039, doi:10.1002/2015GL063065., Using autonomous underwater gliders, we quantified diurnal periodicity in dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, and temperature in the subtropical North Pacific near the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) Station ALOHA during summer 2012. Oxygen optodes provided sufficient stability and precision to quantify diel cycles of average amplitude of 0.6 µmol kg−1. A theoretical diel curve was fit to daily observations to infer an average mixed layer gross primary productivity (GPP) of 1.8 mmol O2 m−3 d−1. Cumulative net community production (NCP) over 110 days was 500 mmol O2 m−2 for the mixed layer, which averaged 57 m in depth. Both GPP and NCP estimates indicated a significant period of below-average productivity at Station ALOHA in 2012, an observation confirmed by 14C productivity incubations and O2/Ar ratios. Given our success in an oligotrophic gyre where biological signals are small, our diel GPP approach holds promise for remote characterization of productivity across the spectrum of marine environments., The authors acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through an NSF Science and Technology Center, the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE; NSF EF-0424599). D.N. also was supported by NSF (OCE-1129644) and an Independent Study Award from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). D.M.K. was also supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. WHOI Summer Student Fellow Cole Stites-Clayton, Stanford University, contributed to early stages of Seaglider data analysis and was supported by an NSF REU grant to WHOI (OCE-1156952).

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 1794–1807, doi:10.1002/2014JD022483., Satellite observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) offer novel and distinctive opportunities for improving our quantitative understanding of the carbon cycle. Prospective observations include those from space-based lidar such as the active sensing of CO2 emissions over nights, days, and seasons (ASCENDS) mission. Here we explore the ability of such a mission to detect regional changes in CO2 fluxes. We investigate these using three prototypical case studies, namely, the thawing of permafrost in the northern high latitudes, the shifting of fossil fuel emissions from Europe to China, and changes in the source/sink characteristics of the Southern Ocean. These three scenarios were used to design signal detection studies to investigate the ability to detect the unfolding of these scenarios compared to a baseline scenario. Results indicate that the ASCENDS mission could detect the types of signals investigated in this study, with the caveat that the study is based on some simplifying assumptions. The permafrost thawing flux perturbation is readily detectable at a high level of significance. The fossil fuel emission detectability is directly related to the strength of the signal and the level of measurement noise. For a nominal (lower) fossil fuel emission signal, only the idealized noise-free instrument test case produces a clearly detectable signal, while experiments with more realistic noise levels capture the signal only in the higher (exaggerated) signal case. For the Southern Ocean scenario, differences due to the natural variability in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climatic mode are primarily detectable as a zonal increase., This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX08AJ92G issued through the Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences Carbon Cycle Science program and by Jet Propulsion Laboratory subcontract 1442785 as well as the ASCENDS Science Requirements Definition Team. S. Doney acknowledges support from U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1048827). K. Schaefer acknowledges support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grant NA09OAR4310063 and from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX10AR63G., 2015-09-11

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 28 (2014): 1295–1310, doi:10.1002/2014GB004890., The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr−1 K−1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses., This work was supported by the Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research Division, the National Science Foundation Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) program (NSF AGS 1048890 and AGS 1048827), and NASA Carbon Cycle Science (NASA NNX11AF96G). G.K.A. acknowledges a NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship. J.B.M. and E.J.D. thank NOAA's Climate Program Office's Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, and Climate (AC4) program for support

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 1274–1290, doi:10.1002/2013GB004599., Here we analyze the impact of projected climate change on plankton ecology in all major ocean biomes over the 21st century, using a multidecade (1880–2090) experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3.1) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-sea ice model. The climate response differs fundamentally in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for diatom and small phytoplankton biomass and consequently for total biomass, primary, and export production. Increasing vertical stratification in the Northern Hemisphere oceans decreases the nutrient supply to the ocean surface. Resulting decreases in diatom and small phytoplankton biomass together with a relative shift from diatoms to small phytoplankton in the Northern Hemisphere result in decreases in the total primary and export production and export ratio, and a shift to a more oligotrophic, more efficiently recycled, lower biomass euphotic layer. By contrast, temperature and stratification increases are smaller in the Southern compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, a southward shift and increase in strength of the Southern Ocean westerlies act against increasing temperature and freshwater fluxes to destratify the water-column. The wind-driven, poleward shift in the Southern Ocean subpolar-subtropical boundary results in a poleward shift and increase in the frontal diatom bloom. This boundary shift, localized increases in iron supply, and the direct impact of warming temperatures on phytoplankton growth result in diatom increases in the Southern Hemisphere. An increase in diatoms and decrease in small phytoplankton partly compensate such that while total production and the efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean increase, total Southern Hemisphere biomass does not change substantially. The impact of ecological shifts on the global carbon cycle is complex and varies across ecological biomes, with Northern and Southern Hemisphere effects on the biological production and export partial, I. Marinov was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant ATM06-28582 while at WHOI and by NASA Grant NNX13AC92G while at Penn. I. Lima and S. Doney were supported by the Center for Microbial Oceanography, Research, and Education (CMORE), an NSF Science and Technology Center (EF-0424599)., 2014-06-20

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 28 (2014): 181-196, doi:10.1002/2013GB004743., The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of ~6 Pg C yr−1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump., D.A.S. and K.O.B. acknowledge support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX11AF63G). S.C.D. and S.F.S. acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation through the Center for Microbial Oceanography: Research and Education (C-MORE) (NSF EF-0424599)., 2014-09-10

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, [year]. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 1294–1296, doi:10.1002/2013GB004720., 2014-06-12

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 28 (2014): 181-196, doi:10.1002/2013GB004743., The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of ~6 Pg C yr−1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump., D.A.S. and K.O.B. acknowledge support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX11AF63G). S.C.D. and S.F.S. acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation through the Center for Microbial Oceanography: Research and Education (C-MORE) (NSF EF-0424599)., 2014-09-10

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, [year]. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 1294–1296, doi:10.1002/2013GB004720., 2014-06-12

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 1274–1290, doi:10.1002/2013GB004599., Here we analyze the impact of projected climate change on plankton ecology in all major ocean biomes over the 21st century, using a multidecade (1880–2090) experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3.1) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-sea ice model. The climate response differs fundamentally in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for diatom and small phytoplankton biomass and consequently for total biomass, primary, and export production. Increasing vertical stratification in the Northern Hemisphere oceans decreases the nutrient supply to the ocean surface. Resulting decreases in diatom and small phytoplankton biomass together with a relative shift from diatoms to small phytoplankton in the Northern Hemisphere result in decreases in the total primary and export production and export ratio, and a shift to a more oligotrophic, more efficiently recycled, lower biomass euphotic layer. By contrast, temperature and stratification increases are smaller in the Southern compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, a southward shift and increase in strength of the Southern Ocean westerlies act against increasing temperature and freshwater fluxes to destratify the water-column. The wind-driven, poleward shift in the Southern Ocean subpolar-subtropical boundary results in a poleward shift and increase in the frontal diatom bloom. This boundary shift, localized increases in iron supply, and the direct impact of warming temperatures on phytoplankton growth result in diatom increases in the Southern Hemisphere. An increase in diatoms and decrease in small phytoplankton partly compensate such that while total production and the efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean increase, total Southern Hemisphere biomass does not change substantially. The impact of ecological shifts on the global carbon cycle is complex and varies across ecological biomes, with Northern and Southern Hemisphere effects on the biological production and export partial, I. Marinov was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant ATM06-28582 while at WHOI and by NASA Grant NNX13AC92G while at Penn. I. Lima and S. Doney were supported by the Center for Microbial Oceanography, Research, and Education (CMORE), an NSF Science and Technology Center (EF-0424599)., 2014-06-20

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 450-462, doi:10.1002/gbc.20039., This study used an ocean general circulation model to simulate the marine iron cycle in an investigation of how simulated distributions of weak iron-binding ligands would be expected to control dissolved iron concentrations in the ocean, with a particular focus on deep ocean waters. The distribution of apparent oxygen utilization was used as a proxy for humic substances that have recently been hypothesized to account for the bulk of weak iron-binding ligands in seawater. Compared to simulations using a conventional approach with homogeneous ligand distributions, the simulations that incorporated spatially variable ligand concentrations exhibited substantial improvement in the simulation of global dissolved iron distributions as revealed by comparisons with available field data. The improved skill of the simulations resulted largely because the spatially variable ligand distributions led to a more reasonable basin-scale variation of the residence time of iron when present at high concentrations. The model results, in conjunction with evidence from recent field studies, suggest that humic substances play an important role in the iron cycle in the ocean., S. C. Doney acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (EF- 0424599). This work was also supported by NSF grant OCE-0928204 to J. K. Moore., 2013-11-20

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 118 (2013): 385–399, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20032., The sea-air biological O2 flux assessed from measurements of surface O2 supersaturation in excess of Ar supersaturation (“O2 bioflux”) is increasingly being used to constrain net community production (NCP) in the upper ocean mixed layer. In making these calculations, one generally assumes that NCP is at steady state, mixed layer depth is constant, and there is no O2 exchange across the base of the mixed layer. The object of this paper is to evaluate the magnitude of errors introduced by violations of these assumptions. Therefore, we examine the differences between the sea-air biological O2 flux and NCP in the Southern Ocean mixed layer as calculated using two ocean biogeochemistry general circulation models. In this approach, NCP is considered a known entity in the prognostic model, whereas O2 bioflux is estimated using the model-predicted O2/Ar ratio to compute the mixed layer biological O2 saturation and the gas transfer velocity to calculate flux. We find that the simulated biological O2 flux gives an accurate picture of the regional-scale patterns and trends in model NCP. However, on local scales, violations of the assumptions behind the O2/Ar method lead to significant, non-uniform differences between model NCP and biological O2 flux. These errors arise from two main sources. First, venting of biological O2 to the atmosphere can be misaligned from NCP in both time and space. Second, vertical fluxes of oxygen across the base of the mixed layer complicate the relationship between NCP and the biological O2 flux. Our calculations show that low values of O2 bioflux correctly register that NCP is also low (<10 mmol m−2 day−1), but fractional errors are large when rates are this low. Values between 10 and 40 mmol m−2 day−1 in areas with intermediate mixed layer depths of 30 to 50 m have the smallest absolute and relative errors. Areas with O2 bioflux higher than 30 mmol m−2 day−1 and mixed layers deeper than 40 m tend to underestimate NCP by up to 20 mmol m−2 day−1. E, This work was supported in part by funding from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA NNX08AF12G) and National Science Foundation (NSF OPP-0823101).

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 526–540, doi:10.1002/gbc.20050., Satellite measurements allow global assessments of phytoplankton concentrations and, from observed temporal changes in biomass, direct access to net biomass accumulation rates (r). For the subarctic Atlantic basin, analysis of annual cycles in r reveals that initiation of the annual blooming phase does not occur in spring after stratification surpasses a critical threshold but rather occurs in early winter when growth conditions for phytoplankton are deteriorating. This finding has been confirmed with in situ profiling float data. The objective of the current study was to test whether satellite-based annual cycles in r are reproduced by the Biogeochemical Element Cycling–Community Climate System Model and, if so, to use the additional ecosystem properties resolved by the model to better understand factors controlling phytoplankton blooms. We find that the model gives a similar early onset time for the blooming phase, that this initiation is largely due to the physical disruption of phytoplankton-grazer interactions during mixed layer deepening, and that parallel increases in phytoplankton-specific division and loss rates during spring maintain the subtle disruption in food web equilibrium that ultimately yields the spring bloom climax. The link between winter mixing and bloom dynamics is illustrated by contrasting annual plankton cycles between regions with deeper and shallower mixing. We show that maximum water column inventories of phytoplankton vary in proportion to maximum winter mixing depth, implying that future reductions in winter mixing may dampen plankton cycles in the subarctic Atlantic. We propose that ecosystem disturbance-recovery sequences are a unifying property of global ocean plankton blooms., This work was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program (grants NNX10AT70G, NNX09AK30G, NNX08AK70G, NNX07AL80G, and NNX08AP36A) and the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE; grant EF-0424599), a National Science Foundation-supported Science and Technology Center.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 450-462, doi:10.1002/gbc.20039., This study used an ocean general circulation model to simulate the marine iron cycle in an investigation of how simulated distributions of weak iron-binding ligands would be expected to control dissolved iron concentrations in the ocean, with a particular focus on deep ocean waters. The distribution of apparent oxygen utilization was used as a proxy for humic substances that have recently been hypothesized to account for the bulk of weak iron-binding ligands in seawater. Compared to simulations using a conventional approach with homogeneous ligand distributions, the simulations that incorporated spatially variable ligand concentrations exhibited substantial improvement in the simulation of global dissolved iron distributions as revealed by comparisons with available field data. The improved skill of the simulations resulted largely because the spatially variable ligand distributions led to a more reasonable basin-scale variation of the residence time of iron when present at high concentrations. The model results, in conjunction with evidence from recent field studies, suggest that humic substances play an important role in the iron cycle in the ocean., S. C. Doney acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (EF- 0424599). This work was also supported by NSF grant OCE-0928204 to J. K. Moore., 2013-11-20

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 118 (2013): 385–399, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20032., The sea-air biological O2 flux assessed from measurements of surface O2 supersaturation in excess of Ar supersaturation (“O2 bioflux”) is increasingly being used to constrain net community production (NCP) in the upper ocean mixed layer. In making these calculations, one generally assumes that NCP is at steady state, mixed layer depth is constant, and there is no O2 exchange across the base of the mixed layer. The object of this paper is to evaluate the magnitude of errors introduced by violations of these assumptions. Therefore, we examine the differences between the sea-air biological O2 flux and NCP in the Southern Ocean mixed layer as calculated using two ocean biogeochemistry general circulation models. In this approach, NCP is considered a known entity in the prognostic model, whereas O2 bioflux is estimated using the model-predicted O2/Ar ratio to compute the mixed layer biological O2 saturation and the gas transfer velocity to calculate flux. We find that the simulated biological O2 flux gives an accurate picture of the regional-scale patterns and trends in model NCP. However, on local scales, violations of the assumptions behind the O2/Ar method lead to significant, non-uniform differences between model NCP and biological O2 flux. These errors arise from two main sources. First, venting of biological O2 to the atmosphere can be misaligned from NCP in both time and space. Second, vertical fluxes of oxygen across the base of the mixed layer complicate the relationship between NCP and the biological O2 flux. Our calculations show that low values of O2 bioflux correctly register that NCP is also low (<10 mmol m−2 day−1), but fractional errors are large when rates are this low. Values between 10 and 40 mmol m−2 day−1 in areas with intermediate mixed layer depths of 30 to 50 m have the smallest absolute and relative errors. Areas with O2 bioflux higher than 30 mmol m−2 day−1 and mixed layers deeper than 40 m tend to underestimate NCP by up to 20 mmol m−2 day−1. E, This work was supported in part by funding from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA NNX08AF12G) and National Science Foundation (NSF OPP-0823101).

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 526–540, doi:10.1002/gbc.20050., Satellite measurements allow global assessments of phytoplankton concentrations and, from observed temporal changes in biomass, direct access to net biomass accumulation rates (r). For the subarctic Atlantic basin, analysis of annual cycles in r reveals that initiation of the annual blooming phase does not occur in spring after stratification surpasses a critical threshold but rather occurs in early winter when growth conditions for phytoplankton are deteriorating. This finding has been confirmed with in situ profiling float data. The objective of the current study was to test whether satellite-based annual cycles in r are reproduced by the Biogeochemical Element Cycling–Community Climate System Model and, if so, to use the additional ecosystem properties resolved by the model to better understand factors controlling phytoplankton blooms. We find that the model gives a similar early onset time for the blooming phase, that this initiation is largely due to the physical disruption of phytoplankton-grazer interactions during mixed layer deepening, and that parallel increases in phytoplankton-specific division and loss rates during spring maintain the subtle disruption in food web equilibrium that ultimately yields the spring bloom climax. The link between winter mixing and bloom dynamics is illustrated by contrasting annual plankton cycles between regions with deeper and shallower mixing. We show that maximum water column inventories of phytoplankton vary in proportion to maximum winter mixing depth, implying that future reductions in winter mixing may dampen plankton cycles in the subarctic Atlantic. We propose that ecosystem disturbance-recovery sequences are a unifying property of global ocean plankton blooms., This work was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program (grants NNX10AT70G, NNX09AK30G, NNX08AK70G, NNX07AL80G, and NNX08AP36A) and the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE; grant EF-0424599), a National Science Foundation-supported Science and Technology Center.