Search

The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state-of-the-art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in-depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter-model differences and ensemble-mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin-up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short-term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin-up such that the GOBMs reach steady-state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land-ocean interface. In the long-term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs

This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985–2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO2 (pCO2 products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at −2.1 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and −2.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1 by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 ± 0.3 PgC yr−1 of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of −0.61 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 decade−1, while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of −0.34 ± 0.06 and −0.41 ± 0.03 PgC yr−1 decade−1, respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2–3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 32 (2018): 1312-1328, doi:10.1029/2018GB005934., Ocean biological processes mediate the transport of roughly 10 petagrams of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean each year and thus play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Even so, the globally integrated rate of carbon export out of the surface ocean remains highly uncertain. Quantifying the processes underlying this biological carbon export requires a synthesis between model predictions and available observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux; yet the scale dissimilarities between models and observations make this synthesis difficult. Here we compare carbon export predictions from a mechanistic model with observations of POC fluxes from several data sets compiled from the literature spanning different space, time, and depth scales as well as using different observational methodologies. We optimize model parameters to provide the best match between model‐predicted and observed POC fluxes, explicitly accounting for sources of error associated with each data set. Model‐predicted globally integrated values of POC flux at the base of the euphotic layer range from 3.8 to 5.5 Pg C/year, depending on the data set used to optimize the model. Modeled carbon export pathways also vary depending on the data set used to optimize the model, as well as the satellite net primary production data product used to drive the model. These findings highlight the importance of collecting field data that average over the substantial natural temporal and spatial variability in carbon export fluxes, and advancing satellite algorithms for ocean net primary production, in order to improve predictions of biological carbon export., NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program Grant Numbers: NNX16AR49G, NNXA122G, NNX16AR47G, OBB16_2‐0031; National Science Foundation, 2019-03-13

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 32 (2018): 1312-1328, doi:10.1029/2018GB005934., Ocean biological processes mediate the transport of roughly 10 petagrams of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean each year and thus play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Even so, the globally integrated rate of carbon export out of the surface ocean remains highly uncertain. Quantifying the processes underlying this biological carbon export requires a synthesis between model predictions and available observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux; yet the scale dissimilarities between models and observations make this synthesis difficult. Here we compare carbon export predictions from a mechanistic model with observations of POC fluxes from several data sets compiled from the literature spanning different space, time, and depth scales as well as using different observational methodologies. We optimize model parameters to provide the best match between model‐predicted and observed POC fluxes, explicitly accounting for sources of error associated with each data set. Model‐predicted globally integrated values of POC flux at the base of the euphotic layer range from 3.8 to 5.5 Pg C/year, depending on the data set used to optimize the model. Modeled carbon export pathways also vary depending on the data set used to optimize the model, as well as the satellite net primary production data product used to drive the model. These findings highlight the importance of collecting field data that average over the substantial natural temporal and spatial variability in carbon export fluxes, and advancing satellite algorithms for ocean net primary production, in order to improve predictions of biological carbon export., NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program Grant Numbers: NNX16AR49G, NNXA122G, NNX16AR47G, OBB16_2‐0031; National Science Foundation, 2019-03-13

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 32 (2018): 1312-1328, doi:10.1029/2018GB005934., Ocean biological processes mediate the transport of roughly 10 petagrams of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean each year and thus play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Even so, the globally integrated rate of carbon export out of the surface ocean remains highly uncertain. Quantifying the processes underlying this biological carbon export requires a synthesis between model predictions and available observations of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux; yet the scale dissimilarities between models and observations make this synthesis difficult. Here we compare carbon export predictions from a mechanistic model with observations of POC fluxes from several data sets compiled from the literature spanning different space, time, and depth scales as well as using different observational methodologies. We optimize model parameters to provide the best match between model‐predicted and observed POC fluxes, explicitly accounting for sources of error associated with each data set. Model‐predicted globally integrated values of POC flux at the base of the euphotic layer range from 3.8 to 5.5 Pg C/year, depending on the data set used to optimize the model. Modeled carbon export pathways also vary depending on the data set used to optimize the model, as well as the satellite net primary production data product used to drive the model. These findings highlight the importance of collecting field data that average over the substantial natural temporal and spatial variability in carbon export fluxes, and advancing satellite algorithms for ocean net primary production, in order to improve predictions of biological carbon export., NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program Grant Numbers: NNX16AR49G, NNXA122G, NNX16AR47G, OBB16_2‐0031; National Science Foundation, 2019-03-13

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 8438–8444, doi:10.1002/2014GL061574., Along the continental margins, rivers and submarine groundwater supply nutrients, trace elements, and radionuclides to the coastal ocean, supporting coastal ecosystems and, increasingly, causing harmful algal blooms and eutrophication. While the global magnitude of gauged riverine water discharge is well known, the magnitude of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is poorly constrained. Using an inverse model combined with a global compilation of 228Ra observations, we show that the SGD integrated over the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans between 60°S and 70°N is (12 ± 3) × 1013 m3 yr−1, which is 3 to 4 times greater than the freshwater fluxes into the oceans by rivers. Unlike the rivers, where more than half of the total flux is discharged into the Atlantic, about 70% of SGD flows into the Indo-Pacific Oceans. We suggest that SGD is the dominant pathway for dissolved terrestrial materials to the global ocean, and this necessitates revisions for the budgets of chemical elements including carbon., This work was supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea, through the Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology (KIMST) (20120176) and National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea (2013R1A2A1A05004343 and 2013R1A1A1058203). Charette and Moore's contributions were supported by the US National Science Foundation through the GEOTRACES project.

© The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 8438–8444, doi:10.1002/2014GL061574., Along the continental margins, rivers and submarine groundwater supply nutrients, trace elements, and radionuclides to the coastal ocean, supporting coastal ecosystems and, increasingly, causing harmful algal blooms and eutrophication. While the global magnitude of gauged riverine water discharge is well known, the magnitude of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is poorly constrained. Using an inverse model combined with a global compilation of 228Ra observations, we show that the SGD integrated over the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans between 60°S and 70°N is (12 ± 3) × 1013 m3 yr−1, which is 3 to 4 times greater than the freshwater fluxes into the oceans by rivers. Unlike the rivers, where more than half of the total flux is discharged into the Atlantic, about 70% of SGD flows into the Indo-Pacific Oceans. We suggest that SGD is the dominant pathway for dissolved terrestrial materials to the global ocean, and this necessitates revisions for the budgets of chemical elements including carbon., This work was supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea, through the Korea Institute of Marine Science and Technology (KIMST) (20120176) and National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea (2013R1A2A1A05004343 and 2013R1A1A1058203). Charette and Moore's contributions were supported by the US National Science Foundation through the GEOTRACES project.