Search

BACKGROUND Falls may cause elderly people to be bedridden, requiring professional intervention; thus, prevention is crucial. The use of electronic health records (EHRs) is expected to provide highly accurate risk assessment and length-of-stay data related to falls, which may be used to estimate the costs and benefits of prevention. However, no studies exist that investigate the extent to which hospital stays could be shortened through fall avoidance resulting from the use of prediction tools. OBJECTIVE First, the extended length of hospital stays caused by falls among elderly inpatients was estimated. Next, we developed a model that predicts falls by using clinical text as input and evaluated its accuracy. Finally, we estimated the potentially shortened hospital stay that would be made possible by appropriate interventions based on the prediction model. METHODS Patients 65 years or older were selected as subjects, and the EHRs of 1,728 falls and 70,586 non-falls were subjected to analysis. The extended stay lengths were estimated using the propensity score-matching of 49 associated variables. Bidirectional encoder representations from transformers and bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods were used to predict falls from clinical text. The estimated length of stay and the outputs of the prediction model were used to determine stay reductions. RESULTS The extended length of hospital stay due to falls was estimated to be 17.8 days (95% CI: 16.6–19.0), and it fell to 8.6 days when there were unobserved covariants at an odds ratio of 2.0. The accuracy of the prediction model was as follows: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.851; F-value, 0.165; recall, 0.737; precision, 0.093; and specificity, 0.839. When assuming interventions with 25 or 100% effectiveness against cases where the model predicted a fall, the stay reduction was estimated at 0.038 and 0.154 days/day, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The accuracy of the prediction model using clinical text is thought to be higher than the prediction accuracy of conventional assessments. However, our model’s precision remained low at 9.3%. This may be due, in part, to the inclusion of cases in which falls did not occur because of preventative interventions during hospitalization. Nonetheless, it is estimated that interventions for cases when falls were predicted will reduce medical costs by 1,520 yen/day of intervention, even if the preventative effect is 25%. Limitations include the fact that these results cannot be extrapolated to short- or long-term hospitalization cases, and that this was a single-center study.

BACKGROUND The rate of adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems has increased internationally, and new EMR adoption is currently a major topic in Japan. However, no study has performed a detailed analysis of longitudinal data to evaluate the changes in the EMR adoption status over time. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the changes in the EMR adoption status over time in hospitals and clinics in Japan and to examine the facility and regional factors associated with these changes. METHODS Secondary longitudinal data were created by matching data in fiscal year (FY) 2011 and FY 2014 using reference numbers. EMR adoption status was defined as “EMR adoption,” “specified adoption schedule,” or “no adoption schedule.” Data were obtained for hospitals (n=4410) and clinics (n=67,329) that had no adoption schedule in FY 2011 and for hospitals (n=1068) and clinics (n=3132) with a specified adoption schedule in FY 2011. The EMR adoption statuses of medical institutions in FY 2014 were also examined. A multinomial logistic model was used to investigate the associations between EMR adoption status in FY 2014 and facility and regional factors in FY 2011. Considering the regional variations of these models, multilevel analyses with second levels were conducted. These models were constructed separately for hospitals and clinics, resulting in four multinomial logistic models. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% Bayesian credible interval (CI) were estimated for each variable. RESULTS A total of 6.9% of hospitals and 14.82% of clinics with no EMR adoption schedules in FY 2011 had adopted EMR by FY 2014, while 10.49% of hospitals and 33.65% of clinics with specified adoption schedules in FY 2011 had cancelled the scheduled adoption by FY 2014. For hospitals with no adoption schedules in FY 2011, EMR adoption/scheduled adoption was associated with practice size characteristics, such as number of outpatients (from quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.005-2.84 and OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.80-3.21, respectively), and number of doctors (from quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 4.20, 95% CI 2.39-7.31 and OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.52-2.64, respectively). For clinics with specified EMR adoption schedules in FY 2011, the factors negatively associated with EMR adoption/cancellation of scheduled EMR adoption were the presence of beds (quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.45-0.72 and OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.96, respectively) and having a private establisher (quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.13-0.55 and OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.19-0.91, respectively). No regional factors were significantly associated with the EMR adoption status of hospitals with no EMR adoption schedules; population density was positively associated with EMR adoption in clinics with no EMR adoption schedule (quantile 4 to quantile 1: OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.32-1.69). CONCLUSIONS Different approaches are needed to promote new adoption of EMR systems in hospitals as compared to clinics. It is important to induce decision making in small- and medium-sized hospitals, and regional postdecision technical support is important to avoid cancellation of scheduled EMR adoption in clinics.