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"This paper aims at describing and explaining the changing distribution of university graduates [UGs] in Japan in order to clarify the effects of interregional migration on changes in the social class composition of the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) and the rest of Japan (Non-TMA).... The analysis thereby begins with the distribution of the UGs by 5-year cohort in 1970, 1980 and 1990 measured by location quotients (LQs) of UGs in the TMA.... The paper then proceeds to an analysis of the determining process of the distribution pattern of the UGs by 5-year cohort." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"This paper aims at analyzing the relationships between net-migration and the transition of population distribution from the perspective of cohort analysis. The article consists of three parts: (1) review of...previous studies...; (2) evaluation of the transition of population distribution in Japan...; (3) presentation of a new projection method, where a basic concept of a new method for regional population projection and the preliminary trial for the Tokyo Region are discussed." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"In this paper, our main aim is to examine long-term trends of Japanese interprefectural migration after the War by using a Markov migration model.... We observed dependence of in- and out-migration on the size of populations by prefecture.... Major findings based on the time-series observation of stationary distributions by year are as follows: First from [the 1950s] to 1970 migrants tended to concentrate [on] densely populated industrialized prefectures (Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi), but after that during [the 1970s] populations have redistributed to provincial prefectures. Reconcentration of population to [the] Tokyo area again occurred around [the mid-1980s, but] it ceased at the beginning of the [1990s] in accordance with economic recession.... It can be concluded that [the] recent Japanese interprefectural migration system has lost its potential power to redistribute populations." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"The purpose of this paper is to describe [attitudes on] marriage among unmarried youths in contemporary Japan, using the unmarried respondents' part of the Tenth Japanese National Fertility Survey carried out in July 1992." Aspects considered include the desirability of arranged marriage; desired age at marriage; desired characteristics of future spouse; women's attitudes on marriage and employment; and the desirability of residing with parents after marriage. (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"The purpose of the present paper is to describe findings from a survey on attitudes toward marriage and family among Japanese never-married youth from the point of view of the general framework of the demand and supply system. The survey was conducted as a part of the Tenth Japanese National Fertility Survey on the first of July in 1992.... The results...indicate that never-married people in Japan are in a kind of paradoxical situation in which they complain about such difficulties...as insufficient availability of prospective spouses, while they have weaker motivation to get married.... This situation can possibly be explained by [the] increasing level of expectation for marriage and spouse due to dynamic changes in [the perceived] function of marriage." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"The perinatal mortality rate (PMR) was analyzed using... Vital Statistics for 1950-1991 in Japan. Secular changes in the PMRs were analyzed according to sex and single-multiple births. This paper also investigated the effects of maternal age, birth order, gestational age, and birthweight on the PMR." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"This paper presents detailed description of a newly developed fertility projection system which was used in population projections for Japan, and population projections by prefectures, officially announced in September and November 1992 respectively. The system is based on a model of age-specific fertility rates by birth order, and it converts parameters which convey behavioral traits of cohort fertility into age-specific fertility rates of future years." (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

"The purpose of the present paper is to review the recent trends in population age structure in Japan and to assess the demographic determinants of those trends relating to the impacts of fertility and mortality change on aging." A decline in cohort mortality and a significant decrease in the birth rate since 1973 have increased the proportion of the aged population. (SUMMARY IN ENG), (excerpt)

The 1st section of this paper, using a method to decompose a change in the total marital fertility rate into the quantum and tempo effects, confirmed the major effect of birth timing on the 1970s trends in the total marital fertility rate based on the pooled data of the 8th and 9th Japanese National Fertility Surveys of 1982 and 1987, respectively. In the next section, proportional hazards model analyses of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd birth functions for the pooled data made it clear that the 1st and 2nd birth intervals among the marriage cohorts since the end of the 1960s were shorter than those in the early 1960s even after having controlled for other variables. Given that 1 conception or more can occur during a birth interval, proportional hazards model analyses were again utilized to examine the effects of various variables on the time elapsed since marriage and the 1st conception, the time between the end of the 1st pregnancy and the 2nd conception, and the time between the end of the 2nd pregnancy and the 3rd conception. The authors found that the 1st-conception probability of the marriage cohorts since the late 1960s was smaller than that of predecessors, while the 2nd-conception probability was not affected by marriage cohort. In the last section, a logistic regression analysis of the probability of induced abortion showed that the probability of aborting a 2nd pregnancy decreased in the 1970s compared with that in the early 1960s. When a proportional hazards model analysis of the 2nd birth function was applied after omitting those cases where the 1st pregnancy did not result in birth and/or the 2nd pregnancy was aborted, the strong effect of marriage cohort on the 2nd birth probability was substantially diluted. These facts suggest that the shortened 2nd birth interval in the 1970s was partly caused by the shrinking probability of aborting a 2nd pregnancy in this period.

The present study is part of a larger project on the formal demographic analysis of Japanese fertility. It deals with the most elusive aspect of fertility, that is the tempo of fertility. The temporal aspect of fertility, particularly in terms of cohort fertility framework with speical reference to parity of women, has been emphasized by Whelpton and Ryder, but in the Japanese demography there have scarcely been studies of this aspect, probably due to lack of interest. In very recent years, however, interest has grown, reflecting the need for more accurate fertility projections in the future in connection with population projections. The present study is an application of life table techniques to explore the temporal aspect of fertility in Japan. 2 methods have been used. One is the age-marriage-parity specific net reproduction rate tables, which were first constructed by the senior author of this paper. The other is by Professor Chin Long Chiang at the University of California, Berkely. In the application of the former type, net reproduction rate tables were constructed for 3 dates -- 1970-71, 1975-76, and 1980-81. Through this method, it was demonstrated that recent fertility for the period 1980-81 was reduced, partly because of the decline in fertility in live-birth order of 1 and 2 among the relatively young ages up to 25 years old. On the other hand, for the ages up to 30 years old, some catching-up mechanisms took place. The 2nd method is by Chiang's new approach to the fertility table. According to his method, which was included in his new book entitled Life Tables and Its Applications, parity-oriented fertility tables have been constructed for the Japanese females for every year from 1971 through 1983, both inclusive. In these cases, denominator is for year z while numerator is concerned with yea z + 1. This method is particularly interesting since it can calculate waiting time for childbearing until the completion of family formation. Some of the findings indicated: 1) recent increases in both parity progession ratio and parity-specific fertility rate in low parity augur a future increase in fertility in the period measure in the near future; and 2) a shortening of the waiting time until the completion of family formation around 1981 and then the recovery of its lengthening in the years 1982 and 1983 suggest a recent trend of lengthening actual reproductive period which definitely contributes to an increase in fertility.

This paper clarifies the child-sex effects on the number of additional children in Japan. The data were retrospective birth histories of the 8th Japanese National Fertility Survey carried out by the Institute of Population Problems in 1982. 1st, the authors found that the majority of the Japanese had a balanced sex preference. There was a slight shift from boy preference to girl preference in terms of the parity progression ratio. The effect of the 1st child's sex was small, but the effect of the parity-2 sex combination was as big or bigger than that of other socioeconomic variables. Next, the authors observed some evidence suggesting strong sex preference in opinion and behavior, such as differential intentions of further childbearing due to the sex of previous children and differences in the number of abortions caused by the sex combination of living children. Finally, the authors noted further issues to be examined in the study of sex preference in Japan.