1. Long-term precipitation in Southwestern Europe reveals no clear trend attributable to anthropogenic forcing
- Author
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Fergus Reig, Ricardo García-Herrera, Yves Tramblay, A. El Kenawy, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Iván Noguera, M. Y. Luna, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Marco Turco, Dhais Peña-Angulo, Ricardo M. Trigo, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, M. Aznarez-Balta, Conor Murphy, Comisión Interministerial de Ciencia y Tecnología, CICYT (España), European Commission, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Environmental Protection Agency (Ireland), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Tomás-Burguera, Miquel, Tomás-Burguera, Miquel [0000-0002-3035-4171], Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
trends ,Southwestern Europe ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Forcing (mathematics) ,precipitation ,010501 environmental sciences ,7. Clean energy ,01 natural sciences ,Variability of climate ,[SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques ,Precipitation ,Global climate model ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,anthropogenic forcing ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,Series (stratigraphy) ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Física atmosférica ,Term (time) ,13. Climate action ,Internal variability ,Climatology ,General Circulation Model ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,Environmental science ,Precipitation trends - Abstract
11 Pags.- 1 Tabl.- 4 Figs. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence., We present a long-term assessment of precipitation trends in Southwestern Europe (1850–2018) using data from multiple sources, including observations, gridded datasets and global climate model experiments. Contrary to previous investigations based on shorter records, we demonstrate, using new long-term, quality controlled precipitation series, the lack of statistically significant long-term decreasing trends in precipitation for the region. Rather, significant trends were mostly found for shorter periods, highlighting the prevalence of interdecadal and interannual variability at these time-scales. Global climate model outputs from three CMIP experiments are evaluated for periods concurrent with observations. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles show precipitation decline, with only CMIP6 showing agreement with long term trends in observations. However, for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 large interannual and internal variability among ensemble members makes it difficult to identify a trend that is statistically different from observations. Across both observations and models, our results make it difficult to associate any declining trends in precipitation in Southwestern Europe to anthropogenic forcing at this stage., This work was supported by the research projects CGL2017-82216-R, CGL2017-83866-C3-3-R and PCI2019-103631, financed by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; CROSSDRO project financed by the AXIS (Assessment of Cross(X)—sectoral climate Impacts and pathways for Sustainable transformation), JPI-Climate co-funded call of the European Commission and INDECIS which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). Dhais Peña-Angulo received a 'Juan de la Cierva' postdoctoral contract (FJCI-2017-33652 Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, MEC). Conor Murphy was supported by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (Grant Nos. 2019-CCRP-MS.60). Marco Turco has received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the project PREDFIRE (RTI2018-099711-J-I00), which is co-financed with the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER).
- Published
- 2020