Search

Your search keyword '"D. G. Fraser"' showing total 3 results
Start Over Author "D. G. Fraser" Publisher iop publishing
3 results on '"D. G. Fraser"'

1. Climate change creates opportunities to expand agriculture in the Hindu Kush Himalaya but will cause considerable ecosystem trade-offs

Author

Krishna Bahadur KC, Evan D G Fraser, Dan Wassmansdorf, and Edan Tzadok

Subjects
climate change, ecosystem services, food security, trade-offs, hindukush himalaya, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

Theoretically, climate change will create warmer temperatures and greater precipitation in mountainous regions, making agriculture possible in areas that were once unsuitable for cropping. But the extent and the nature of these ‘agricultural frontiers’ is as yet unknown. Building upon recent research on Climate Change Driven Agricultural Frontiers [CCDAFs], this paper assesses the potential of agricultural expansion in the Hindukush Himalaya [HKH]. Using FAO crop suitability data, we estimated the extent of CCDAFs under three Representative Concentration Pathways for 13 crops as well as the potential impacts of developing these frontiers on ecosystem services. We show that under climate change projected by the IPSL- CM5A-LR climate model, 34,507 km ^2 of agricultural frontiers may emerge in the HKH by 2100 under RCP 6.0. Additionally, results suggest that there will be new opportunities for crop diversification as individual crops will gain frontier area. However, developing these CCDAFs will impact supportive and regulating ecosystem services including carbon storage and sequestration, soil quality, biodiversity, and hydrological processes—with implications for regional water security. These impacts must be considered alongside the benefits of additional food production when evaluating the net benefits of developing CCDAFS.

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

2. Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

Author

Andrew J. Challinor, Evan D. G. Fraser, Elisabeth Simelton, Mathew Collins, and Debbie Hemming

Subjects
Vulnerability index, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Natural resource economics, business.industry, fungi, Simulation modeling, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, food and beverages, Climate change, Investment (macroeconomics), Agronomy, Agriculture, Environmental science, Mean radiant temperature, Adaptation, business, Productivity, General Environmental Science
Abstract

Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty and adaptation, using spring wheat in Northeast China as a case study. A parallel ‘vulnerability index’ approach uses quantitative socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. The simulations show crop failure rates increasing under climate change, due to increasing extremes of both heat and water stress. Crop failure rates increase with mean temperature, with increases in maximum failure rates being greater than those in median failure rates. The results suggest that significant adaptation is possible through either socio-economic measures such as greater investment, or biophysical measures such as drought or heat tolerance in crops. The results also show that adaptation becomes increasingly necessitated as mean temperature and the associated number of extremes rise. The results, and the limitations of this study, also suggest directions for research for linking climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritize options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.

Published
2010

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results