Search

Carry trade is a speculative financial transaction and a leveraged exchange rate position. Thus, a sudden unwinding in carry trade position leads to a sharp depreciates in the high-interest currency and to increase exchange rate volatility. It can cause global imbalances and financial crises and therefore it can ensue as a source of financial fragility and instability. In this study, we examined effects of unwinding of carry trade on financial variables in regimes when interest rate differential and TL/USD exchange rate volatility are high and low, over the period of January 2005-September 2017 in Turkey. From the results of this study, we concluded that a sudden unwinding of carry trade position led to decrease of interest rate and BİST 100 return and increase of inflation rate in regimes when interest rate differential is high and low. So-called unwinding led to depreciate Turkish Lira and decrease of BİST 100 return in regimes when exchange rate volatility is high and low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of unemployment has special importance because of its economic and social dimensions. That also has become a chronic economic problems for Turkey's economy and continuing the fight against unemployment for special measures to be taken, it reveals the importance of the unemployment problem for Turkey's economy. In this study, the macroeconomic determinants of unemployment in Turkey has tried to be analyzed for 2005.1- 2018.11 period. In the study, the determinants of the number of unemployed were analyzed by using the ARDL model as well as DOLS, FMOLS and Threshold regression models. According to the findings of the ARDL model, industrial production affets negatively the number of unemployed people in line with expectations, and the CPI and interest rate affects positively. The real effective exchange rate affects the number of unemployed positively, but its coefficient is statistically insignificant. FMOLS, DOLS and Threshold Regression models have also similar results with the ARDL model for Turkish Economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between consumer loans and some macroeconomic variables between 2006:Q1 and 2018:Q2 quarter periods in Turkey. In this context; consumer loans, inflation, exchange rate, interest and money supply variables were used. Firstly, the stability of variables are analyzed that structural non-breaking unit root test (ADF, PP) and a structural break (Zivot-Andrews) unit root test. Whether or not there is a long-term relationship between the variables was investigated by the Gregory- Hansen structural fracture cointegration test. The direction of causality between the variables was examined with Toda-Yamamato causality test. In Toda-Yamamoto causality test, it is seen that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between interest rate and consumer loans. In addition, the one-way causality relationship from money supply to consumer loans has been determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]