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Climate change is increasing the occurrence of the so-called heatwaves with a trend that is expected to worsen in the next years due to global warming. The growing intensity and duration of these extreme weather events are leading to a significant number of power system failures, especially in urban areas. This is drastically affecting the reliability and normal operation of power distribution grids around the world, with high financial costs and huge negative impacts on people's life. Typically, the response to these failure events is approached by post-event analysis, aimed at identifying the grid areas that require resources to increase the resilience of the system and prevent future outages. Nevertheless, understanding the nature of heatwaves and forecasting their impact on power distribution systems can be useful to anticipate them and accelerate a reaction, possibly avoiding negative impacts on power systems and customers. In this study, a structured method to predict distribution grid disruptions caused by heatwaves is defined. The proposed method relies on machine learning to analyze previous failure data and forecast power grid outages using operational and meteorological information. The method is evaluated using real failure data from a large power distribution network located in southern Italy.

This article proposes a novel methodology for multistage, multiproduct, multi-item, and closed-loop Supply Chain Network (SCN) design under uncertainty. The method considers that multiple products are manufactured by the SCN, each composed by multiple items, and that some of the sold products may require repair, refurbishing, or remanufacturing activities. We solve the two main decisions that take place in the medium-/short-term planning horizon, namely partners’ selection and allocation of the received orders among them. The partners’ selection problem is solved by a cross-efficiency fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis technique, which allows evaluating the efficiency of each SCN member and ranking them against multiple conflicting objectives under uncertain data on their performance. Then, according to the estimated customers’ demand, the order allocation problem is solved by a fuzzy bargaining game problem, where each SCN actor behaves to simultaneously maximize both its own profit and the service level of the overall SCN in terms of efficiency, costs, and lead time. An illustrative example from the literature is finally presented. Note to Practitioners —We present a decision tool to address the optimal design, performance evaluation, and continuous improvement of modern cooperative SCNs. We propose an effective method to jointly solve the members’ selection and the orders’ allocation, considering the complex structure of modern SCNs, the multiobjective nature of the problems, and the uncertainty characterizing economic markets. Competition within SCNs stages and cooperation along the chain are considered, with the aim to improve both financial and environmental sustainability, while ensuring the highest service levels to customers.

This paper proposes a stochastic non-linear model predictive controller to support policy-makers in determining robust optimal non-pharmaceutical strategies to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic waves. First, a time-varying SIRCQTHE epidemiological model is defined to get predictions on the pandemic dynamics. A stochastic model predictive control problem is then formulated to select the necessary control actions (i.e., restrictions on the mobility for different socio-economic categories) to minimize the socio-economic costs. In particular, considering the uncertainty characterizing this decision-making process, we ensure that the capacity of the healthcare system is not violated in accordance with a chance constraint approach. The effectiveness of the presented method in properly supporting the definition of diversified non-pharmaceutical strategies for tackling the COVID-19 spread is tested on the network of Italian regions using real data. The proposed approach can be easily extended to cope with other countries' characteristics and different levels of the spatial scale. Postprint accepted for pubblication in IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering (T-ASE) How to cite: P. Scarabaggio, R. Carli, G. Cavone, N. Epicoco and M. Dotoli, (2021) "Non-Pharmaceutical Stochastic Optimal Control Strategies to Mitigate the COVID-19 Spread," in IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1109/TASE.2021.3111338 © 2021 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.

The COVID-19 outbreak is deeply influencing the global social and economic framework, due to restrictive measures adopted worldwide by governments to counteract the pandemic contagion. In multi-region areas such as Italy, where the contagion peak has been reached, it is crucial to find targeted and coordinated optimal exit and restarting strategies on a regional basis to effectively cope with possible onset of further epidemic waves, while efficiently returning the economic activities to their standard level of intensity. Differently from the related literature, where modeling and controlling the pandemic contagion is typically addressed on a national basis, this paper proposes an optimal control approach that supports governments in defining the most effective strategies to be adopted during post-lockdown mitigation phases in a multi-region scenario.Based on the joint use of a non-linear Model Predictive Control scheme and a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-based epidemiological model, the approach is aimed at minimizing the cost of the so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, mitigation strategies), while ensuring that the capacity of the network of regional healthcare systems is not violated. In addition, the proposed approach supports policy makers in taking targeted intervention decisions on different regions by an integrated and structured model, thus both respecting the specific regional health systems characteristics and improving the system-wide performance by avoiding uncoordinated actions of the regions.The methodology is tested on the COVID-19 outbreak data related to the network of Italian regions, showing its effectiveness in properly supporting the definition of effective regional strategies for managing the COVID-19 diffusion.

The COVID-19 outbreak is deeply influencing the global social and economic framework, due to restrictive measures adopted worldwide by governments to counteract the pandemic contagion. In multi-region areas such as Italy, where the contagion peak has been reached, it is crucial to find targeted and coordinated optimal exit and restarting strategies on a regional basis to effectively cope with possible onset of further epidemic waves, while efficiently returning the economic activities to their standard level of intensity. Differently from the related literature, where modeling and controlling the pandemic contagion is typically addressed on a national basis, this paper proposes an optimal control approach that supports governments in defining the most effective strategies to be adopted during post-lockdown mitigation phases in a multi-region scenario.Based on the joint use of a non-linear Model Predictive Control scheme and a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)-based epidemiological model, the approach is aimed at minimizing the cost of the so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, mitigation strategies), while ensuring that the capacity of the network of regional healthcare systems is not violated. In addition, the proposed approach supports policy makers in taking targeted intervention decisions on different regions by an integrated and structured model, thus both respecting the specific regional health systems characteristics and improving the system-wide performance by avoiding uncoordinated actions of the regions.The methodology is tested on the COVID-19 outbreak data related to the network of Italian regions, showing its effectiveness in properly supporting the definition of effective regional strategies for managing the COVID-19 diffusion.

In this paper, we show how first-order hybrid Petri nets can be efficiently used to model and manage intermodal freight transport terminals. The proposed formalism enables the terminal decision maker to choose the speeds associated with continuous transitions in order to optimize the terminal performance by two alternative control policies: the container flows maximization and the minimization of the residual containers in the storage area. The approach may be used either offline, to take decisions on the terminal resources, or online, to solve congestions/malfunctions. A real case study is modeled and managed by the proposed optimal control policies.