1. Robust Queue Inference from Waiting Times.
- Author
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Bandi, Chaithanya, Han, Eojin, and Proskynitopoulos, Alexej
- Subjects
QUEUEING networks ,ROBUST optimization ,OPERATIONS research ,INFERENTIAL statistics ,STATISTICAL services - Abstract
Modeling and decision making for queueing systems have been one of fundamental topics in operations research. For these problems, uncertainty models are established by estimation of key parameters such as expected interarrival and service times. In practice, however, their distributions are unknown, and decision makers are only given historical records of waiting times, which contain relevant but indirect information on the uncertainties. Their complex temporal dependence on the queueing dynamics and the absence of distributional information on the model primitives render estimation of queueing systems remarkably challenging. In the paper "Robust Queue Inference from Waiting Times" by Chaithanya Bandi, Eojin Han, and Alexej Proskynitopoulos, a new inference framework based on robust optimization is proposed to estimate unknown service times from waiting time observations. This new framework allows data-driven, distribution-free estimation on unknown model primitives by solving tractable optimization problems. Observational data from queueing systems are of great practical interest in many application areas because they can be leveraged for better statistical inference of service processes. However, these observations often only provide partial information of the system for various reasons in real-world settings. Moreover, their complex temporal dependence on the queueing dynamics and the absence of distributional information on the model primitives render estimation of queueing systems remarkably challenging. To this end, we consider the problem of inferring service times from waiting time observations. Specifically, we propose an inference framework based on robust optimization, where service times are described via sets that are calibrated by the observed waiting times. We provide conditions under which these data-driven uncertainty sets become asymptotically confident estimators of the service process; that is, they contain unknown service times almost surely as the number of observations grows. We also introduce tractable optimization formulations to compute bounds of various service time characteristics such as moments and risk measures. In this way, our approach is data driven and free of distributional assumptions on unknown model primitives, which is required by existing methods. We also generalize the proposed inference framework to tandem queues and feed-forward networks, offering broader capability in estimation of real-world queueing systems. Our simulation study demonstrates that the proposed approach easily incorporates information of arrival processes such as moments and correlations and performs consistently well on queueing networks under various settings. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.0091. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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