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This article investigates a physics-informed statistical approach capable of (i) learning nonlinear system dynamics by using data generated from a nonlinear system as well as the underlying governing physics, and (ii) predicting system dynamics with reasonable accuracy and a computational speed much faster than numerical methods. The proposed approach obtains the reduced-order model from the full-order governing equations. A function-to-function regression, based on multivariate Functional Principal Component Analysis, establishes the mapping between external forcing and system dynamics, while a multivariate Gaussian Process is used to capture the relationship between parameters and external forcing. In the application, the proposed approach is applied to predict aircraft nose skin deformation after Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) collisions at different impact attitudes (i.e., pitch, yaw and roll degrees). We show that the proposed physics-informed statistical model can achieve a 12% out-of-sample mean relative error, and is more than 103 times faster than Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Computer code and sample data are available on GitHub.

Statistical analysis of multimodal imaging data is a challenging task, since the data involves high-dimensionality, strong spatial correlations and complex data structures. In this paper, we propose rigorous statistical testing procedures for making inferences on the complex dependence of multimodal imaging data. Motivated by the analysis of multi-task fMRI data in the Human Connectome Project (HCP) study, we particularly address three hypothesis testing problems: (a) testing independence among imaging modalities over brain regions, (b) testing independence between brain regions within imaging modalities, and (c) testing independence between brain regions across different modalities. Considering a general form for all the three tests, we develop a global testing procedure and a multiple testing procedure controlling the false discovery rate. We study theoretical properties of the proposed tests and develop a computationally efficient distributed algorithm. The proposed methods and theory are general and relevant for many statistical problems of testing independence structure among the components of high-dimensional random vectors with arbitrary dependence structures. We also illustrate our proposed methods via extensive simulations and analysis of five task fMRI contrast maps in the HCP study.

Wavelet shrinkage estimators are widely applied in several fields of science for denoising data in wavelet domain by reducing the magnitudes of empirical coefficients. In nonparametric regression problem, most of the shrinkage rules are derived from models composed by an unknown function with additive gaussian noise. Although gaussian noise assumption is reasonable in several real data analysis, mainly for large sample sizes, it is not general. Contaminated data with positive noise can occur in practice and nonparametric regression models with positive noise bring challenges in wavelet shrinkage point of view. This work develops bayesian shrinkage rules to estimate wavelet coefficients from a nonparametric regression framework with additive and strictly positive noise under exponential and lognormal distributions. Computational aspects are discussed and simulation studies to analyse the performances of the proposed shrinkage rules and compare them with standard techniques are done. An application in winning times Boston Marathon dataset is also provided.

Out-of-sample prediction is the acid test of predictive models, yet an independent test dataset is often not available for assessment of the prediction error. For this reason, out-of-sample performance is commonly estimated using data splitting algorithms such as cross-validation or the bootstrap. For quantitative outcomes, the ratio of variance explained to total variance can be summarized by the coefficient of determination or in-sample $R^2$, which is easy to interpret and to compare across different outcome variables. As opposed to the in-sample $R^2$, the out-of-sample $R^2$ has not been well defined and the variability on the out-of-sample $\hat{R}^2$ has been largely ignored. Usually only its point estimate is reported, hampering formal comparison of predictability of different outcome variables. Here we explicitly define the out-of-sample $R^2$ as a comparison of two predictive models, provide an unbiased estimator and exploit recent theoretical advances on uncertainty of data splitting estimates to provide a standard error for the $\hat{R}^2$. The performance of the estimators for the $R^2$ and its standard error are investigated in a simulation study. We demonstrate our new method by constructing confidence intervals and comparing models for prediction of quantitative $\text{Brassica napus}$ and $\text{Zea mays}$ phenotypes based on gene expression data.

A new method for clustering functional data is proposed via information maximization. The proposed method learns a probabilistic classifier in an unsupervised manner so that mutual information (or squared loss mutual information) between data points and cluster assignments is maximized. A notable advantage of this proposed method is that it only involves continuous optimization of model parameters, which is simpler than discrete optimization of cluster assignments and avoids the disadvantages of generative models. Unlike some existing methods, the proposed method does not require estimating the probability densities of Karhunen-Lo`eve expansion scores under different clusters and also does not require the common eigenfunction assumption. The empirical performance and the applications of the proposed methods are demonstrated by simulation studies and real data analyses. In addition, the proposed method allows for out-of-sample clustering, and its effect is comparable with that of some supervised classifiers.

This paper presents interval estimation for the population mean and coefficient of variation in a two-parameter exponential distribution. The new generalized pivot, profile likelihood function and likelihood ratio statistic are derived and used to construct the confidence intervals. A highlight of this paper is that the generalized and likelihood ratio confidence intervals for the mean and coefficient of variation perform well in terms of coverage probability in many cases. Finally, two real-data applications on the air pollution of particulate matter (PM2.5) and the renewable energy through wind power of Thailand are used for illustration purposes.

The minimum covariance determinant (MCD) estimator is ubiquitous in multivariate analysis, the critical step of which is to select a subset of a given size with the lowest sample covariance determinant. The concentration step (C-step) is a common tool for subset-seeking; however, it becomes computationally demanding for high-dimensional data. To alleviate the challenge, we propose a depth-based algorithm, termed as \texttt{FDB}, which replaces the optimal subset with the trimmed region induced by statistical depth. We show that the depth-based region is consistent with the MCD-based subset under a specific class of depth notions, for instance, the projection depth. With the two suggested depths, the \texttt{FDB} estimator is not only computationally more efficient but also reaches the same level of robustness as the MCD estimator. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to assess the empirical performance of our estimators. We also validate the computational efficiency and robustness of our estimators under several typical tasks such as principal component analysis, linear discriminant analysis, image denoise and outlier detection on real-life datasets. A R package \textit{FDB} and potential extensions are available in the Supplementary Materials.

Convex clustering has recently garnered increasing interest due to its attractive theoretical and computational properties, but its merits become limited in the face of high-dimensional data. In such settings, pairwise affinity terms that rely on $k$-nearest neighbors become poorly specified and Euclidean measures of fit provide weaker discriminating power. To surmount these issues, we propose to modify the convex clustering objective so that feature weights are optimized jointly with the centroids. The resulting problem becomes biconvex, and as such remains well-behaved statistically and algorithmically. In particular, we derive a fast algorithm with closed form updates and convergence guarantees, and establish finite-sample bounds on its prediction error. Under interpretable regularity conditions, the error bound analysis implies consistency of the proposed estimator. Biconvex clustering performs feature selection throughout the clustering task: as the learned weights change the effective feature representation, pairwise affinities can be updated adaptively across iterations rather than precomputed within a dubious feature space. We validate the contributions on real and simulated data, showing that our method effectively addresses the challenges of dimensionality while reducing dependence on carefully tuned heuristics typical of existing approaches.

Online averaged stochastic gradient algorithms are more and more studied since (i) they can deal quickly with large sample taking values in high dimensional spaces, (ii) they enable to treat data sequentially, (iii) they are known to be asymptotically efficient. In this paper, we focus on giving explicit bounds of the quadratic mean error of the estimates, and this, with very weak assumptions, i.e without supposing that the function we would like to minimize is strongly convex or admits a bounded gradient.