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This paper presents a probabilistic approach in the modeling of stand-alone microgrids to predict their operational adequacy performance considering uncertainty of energy storage system (ESS), photovoltaic system (PVS) and conventional generator (CG). Instead of using the daily or hourly time step, operating period a minutely time step is considered to incorporate the effect of fast ramp up/down of system components on microgrid operating adequacy through expected energy not supplied (EENS) and expected energy not used (EENU), due to load and resource variations. A time varying state of charge (SOC) model is proposed to determine power output of an ESS in reliability modeling. The reliability of a PVS is modeled in detail based on the total cross-tied configuration (TCTC) of photovoltaic (PV) cells and arrays. The proposed technique and indices will be useful for system planners to select the type and size of microgrid systems that contain alternative energy sources and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

To exploit the information of power market activities, a bootstrap technique is proposed in the available transfer capability (ATC) calculation. This is a computer-based method for assigning accuracy to statistical estimates. The standard confidence intervals calculated provide useful information to transmission customers in their evaluation of transaction bids and purchase of transmission right. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]