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3. Empirical Effort and Schedule Estimation Models for Agile Processes in the US DoD

Author

Rosa, Wilson, Clark, Bradford K., Madachy, Raymond, Boehm, Barry W., Naval Postgraduate School, and Systems Engineering (SE)

Subjects
Agile software processes, Cost estimation, Software acquisition, Requirements/Specification, Software process, Time estimation
Abstract

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TSE.2021.3080666 Estimating the cost and schedule of agile software projects is critical at an early phase to establish baseline budgets and schedules for the selection of competitive bidders. The challenge is that common agile sizing measures such as story points and user stories are not practical for early estimation as these are often reported after contract award in DoD. This study provides a set of effort and schedule estimation models for agile projects using a sizing measure that is available before proposal evaluation based on data from 36 DoD agile projects. The results suggest that initial software requirements, defined as the sum of functions and external interfaces, is an effective sizing measure for early estimation of effort and schedule of agile projects. The models’ accuracy improves when application domain groups and peak staff are added as inputs.

Published
2021

4. Empirical Effort and Schedule Estimation Models for Agile Processes in the US DoD

Author

Naval Postgraduate School, Systems Engineering (SE), Rosa, Wilson, Clark, Bradford K., Madachy, Raymond, Boehm, Barry W., Naval Postgraduate School, Systems Engineering (SE), Rosa, Wilson, Clark, Bradford K., Madachy, Raymond, and Boehm, Barry W.

Abstract

Estimating the cost and schedule of agile software projects is critical at an early phase to establish baseline budgets and schedules for the selection of competitive bidders. The challenge is that common agile sizing measures such as story points and user stories are not practical for early estimation as these are often reported after contract award in DoD. This study provides a set of effort and schedule estimation models for agile projects using a sizing measure that is available before proposal evaluation based on data from 36 DoD agile projects. The results suggest that initial software requirements, defined as the sum of functions and external interfaces, is an effective sizing measure for early estimation of effort and schedule of agile projects. The models’ accuracy improves when application domain groups and peak staff are added as inputs.

Published
2021

17. Early Phase Cost Models for Agile Software Processes in the US DoD

Author

Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), Systems Engineering (SE), Rosa, Wilson, Madachy, Raymond, Clark, Bradford, Boehm, Barry, Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), Systems Engineering (SE), Rosa, Wilson, Madachy, Raymond, Clark, Bradford, and Boehm, Barry

Abstract

Background: Software effort estimates are necessary and critical at an early phase for decision makers to establish initial budgets, and in a government context to select the most competitive bidder for a contract. The challenge is that estimated software requirements is the only size information available at this stage, compounded with the newly increasing adoption of agile processes in the US DoD. Aims: The objectives are to improve cost estimation by investigating available sizing measures, and providing practical effort estimation models for agile software development projects during the contract bidding phase or earlier. Method: The analysis explores the effects of independent variables for product size, peak staff, and domain on effort. The empirical data for model calibration is from 20 industrial projects completed recently for the US DoD, among a larger dataset of recent projects using other lifecycle processes. Results: Statistical results showed that initial software requirements is a valid size metric for estimating agile software development effort. Prediction accuracy improves when peak staff and domain are added as inputs to the cost models. Conclusion: These models may be used for estimates of agile projects, and evaluating software development contract cost proposals with inputs available during the bidding phase or earlier.

Published
2017

35. US DoD Application Domain Empirical Software Cost Analysis

Author

Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), Systems Engineering (SE), Madachy, Raymond, Boehm, Barry, Clark, Brad, Tan, Thomas, Rosa, Wilson, Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.), Systems Engineering (SE), Madachy, Raymond, Boehm, Barry, Clark, Brad, Tan, Thomas, and Rosa, Wilson

Abstract

General software cost parameters such as size, effort distribution, and productivity are necessarily imprecise due to variations by domain. To improve this situation, empirical software cost analysis using the primary US DoD cost database has been segmented by domain. This analysis supports a software cost estimation metrics manual for improvements in acquisition policies, procedures and tools. We have addressed the challenges of consistent data definitions and taxonomies across diverse stakeholder communities, data integrity, data formats, and others. We highlight example analysis results from an application domain demonstrating cost estimating relationships, benchmarks on reuse parameters and effort distributions for estimators to use.

Published
2011

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