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Consumers’ transformers play an important role in power systems, and they are essential for operation reliability and commercial benefits. In the past, maintenance personnel had to spend plenty of time on examining consumers’ transformers one by one. Nowadays, with the wide deployment of power user electric energy data acquire system (PUEEDAS), informative metering data are becoming available, which can be utilized for further condition monitoring. Thus, this paper proposes a data-driven abnormal condition monitoring algorithm of data acquisition for consumers’ transformers, which could timely send abnormal condition alerts to operators and maintenance personnel. In the proposed algorithm, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is utilized to show the degree of correlation among phase currents, and its t-Statistics is used to determine whether abnormal condition of data acquisition exists based on the hypothesis testing. Finally, actual acquisition data from Zhejiang power system in China are employed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, and to analyze the characteristics of normal and abnormal conditions, respectively. Sensitive analyses on different significant levels and sampling rates are performed for considering its impact on monitoring results; the application in real power systems is also given to demonstrate the practicality of the proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatiotemporal data fusion is a methodology to generate images with both high spatial and temporal resolution. Most spatiotemporal data fusion methods generate the fused image at a prediction date based on pairs of input images from other dates. The performance of spatiotemporal data fusion is greatly affected by the selection of the input image pair. There are two criteria for selecting the input image pair: the “similarity” criterion, in which the image at the base date should be as similar as possible to that at the prediction date, and the “consistency” criterion, in which the coarse and fine images at the base date should be consistent in terms of their radiometric characteristics and imaging geometry. Unfortunately, the “consistency” criterion has not been quantitatively considered by previous selection strategies. We thus develop a novel method (called “cross-fusion”) to address the issue of the determination of the base image pair. The new method first chooses several candidate input image pairs according to the “similarity” criterion and then takes the “consistency” criterion into account by employing all of the candidate input image pairs to implement spatiotemporal data fusion between them. We applied the new method to MODIS–Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data fusion. The results show that the cross-fusion method performs better than four other selection strategies, with lower average absolute difference (AAD) values and higher correlation coefficients in various vegetated regions including a deciduous forest in Northeast China, an evergreen forest in South China, cropland in North China Plain, and grassland in the Tibetan Plateau. We simulated scenarios for the inconsistency between MODIS and Landsat data and found that the simulated inconsistency is successfully quantified by the new method. In addition, the cross-fusion method is less affected by cloud omission errors. The fused NDVI time-series data generated by the new method tracked various vegetation growth trajectories better than previous selection strategies. We expect that the cross-fusion method can advance practical applications of spatiotemporal data fusion technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is the basis of power system planning and operation. With regard to the fast-growing load in China, a novel two-stage hybrid forecasting method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, daily load is forecasted by time-series methods; in the second stage, the deviation caused by time-series methods is forecasted considering the impact of relative factors, and then is added to the result of the first stage. Different from other conventional methods, this paper does an in-depth analysis on the impact of relative factors on the deviation between actual load and the forecasting result of traditional time-series methods. On the basis of this analysis, an adaptive algorithm is proposed to perform the second stage which can be used to choose the most appropriate algorithm among linear regression, quadratic programming, and support vector machine (SVM) according to the characteristic of historical data. These ideas make the forecasting procedure more accurate, adaptive, and effective, comparing with SVM and other prevalent methods. The effectiveness has been demonstrated by the experiments and practical application in China. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) and Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (SNPP-VIIRS) data are valuable records of nighttime lights (NTLs) in analyzing socioeconomic development. However, inconsistencies between these data have severely restricted long time-series analyses. Published time-series NTL data sets are not widely available or accurate because the DMSP-OLS calibration is inadequate and some missing data in the SNPP-VIIRS data are seldom considered for patching. To address these issues, we calibrated DMSP-OLS data (1992–2013) by using a quadratic model based on a “pseudo-invariant pixel” method. Thereafter, an exponential smoothing model was used to predict and patch missing data in the monthly SNPP-VIIRS data (2013–2019). Outliers and noise were also removed from the annual data. In addition, a sigmoid model was employed to generate improved simulated DMSP-OLS (SDMSP-OLS) data (2013–2019), which were appended with the calibrated DMSP-OLS data (1992–2013) to develop improved DMSP-OLS-like data (1992–2019) in China. Finally, we qualitatively and quantitatively compared these data with published NTL data to examine data availability. Results showed that choosing invariant pixels to calibrate DMSP-OLS data can minimize discontinuity. The correlation between the SNPP-VIIRS data synthesized by the patched monthly SNPP-VIIRS data and the official annual SNPP-VIIRS data in 2015 ($R^{2} =0.931$) and 2016 ($R^{2} =0.930$) was higher than those of the two existing correction methods with $R^{2}$ values below 0.90. Spatial patterns of pixels in the improved SDMSP-OLS data in 2013 were more similar with the DMSP-OLS data than those in the published data. Strong correlations likewise existed between the total (average) pixel values of the improved SDMSP-OLS data (2013–2019) and the DMSP-OLS data in 2012. We also found that the improved DMSP-OLS-like data held strong linear correlations with different statistics, the average $R^{2}$ values of which were 0.931 and 0.654 at the national and provincial levels, respectively. Meanwhile, the average regression $R^{2}$ values between the two published data sets and statistics were 0.858/0.506 and 0.911/0.611, respectively. Our study has proven that the improved DMSP-OLS-like data (1992–2019) have immense potential to effectively evaluate socioeconomic development and anthropic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last decade, neural networks have emerged as one of the most powerful and accurate nonlinear models for load forecasting. However, using neural networks requires users to have in-depth knowledge to determine the model structure and parameters, which limits their wide application. To overcome this weakness, this paper proposes an integrated approach which combines a self-organizing fuzzy neural network (SOFNN) learning method with a bilevel optimization method. SOFNNs can automatically determine both the model structure and parameters, while the bilevel optimization method automatically selects the best pre-training parameters to ensure that the best fuzzy neural networks be identified. Therefore, the proposed approach is able to automatically identify the best fuzzy neural network for a given forecasting task and is much easier to use in practice. The proposed approach is tested on real-load data from the Southern Power Network of Hebei Province, China, and on the EUNITE competition data. Results show the proposed approach improves existing load forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitable water vapor (PWV) products from the second generation of China’s geostationary meteorological satellite Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) have the advantage of high spatiotemporal resolution and can play an increasingly important role in the study of atmosphere and climate. Using the radiosonde, the global navigation satellite system (GNSS), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalysis 5 (ERA5) reanalysis data, this study presented a comprehensive evaluation of PWV products from FY-4A for a one-year period from January 2019 to January 2020. Results indicated that FY-4A PWV data have a good agreement with radiosonde and GNSS measured ones with the same correlation coefficient of 0.976, and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) are 3.95 and 3.73 mm, respectively. Compared with the radiosonde and GNSS, the FY-4A Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI) was found to underestimate the water vapor during humid conditions when the PWV is greater than 50 mm. The magnitude of underestimation increases with the growth in water vapor content. In terms of spatial variability, the RMSE of FY-4A PWV decreases with the increase in latitude, while the relative RMSE (R-RMSE) displays an opposite pattern. RMSE from the comparison between FY-4A and ERA5 PWV varies from 0 to 6 mm depending upon the location. Statistics showed that 55.08%, 59.79%, and 83.13% RMSE values are less than 4 mm in the evaluation by radiosonde, GNSS, and ERA5, respectively. The seasonal and diurnal variations of RMSE showed that: 1) summer exhibited larger RMSE than winter and 2) daytime obtained slightly worse performance than nighttime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparative experiment was carried out to discuss the detectability and influence factors on heterogeneous distributions of the stress field for underground panels in North China. The panels are situated in the center and the eastern margin of the North China plate, having similar layouts and stress states. Seismic surveys were performed before coal extractions, and travel-time topographies for refracted P-waves from stiff roofs were computed with a ray-based inversion. The tomographic distributions of P-wave velocity were interpreted by a K-means clustering to categorize the stress fields. The estimated high-stress anomalies show strong correlations with the monitored dynamic roof ruptures and high-energy microseisms. Besides, the relationship among high-stress areas, geological factors, and mined-out voids is also discussed through feature comparisons, Monte–Carlo simulations, and point process statistics. Our results show that the curvature variations and the mined-out voids are dominant factors that affect the heterogeneous distribution of the stress field in the panels. However, the leading causes of the curvature variations in the small-scale panels are different, but they do follow the large-scale regional patterns of the geological regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese GF-1 satellite, the first satellite of the China High-resolution Earth Observation System launched in 2013, can be used to help estimate evapotranspiration (LE), which is important for myriad hydroclimatic and ecosystem science and applications. We propose a novel approach to use the GF-1 visible and near-infrared (VNIR) measurements at 16 m and 4-day resolutions to estimate LE. The NIR (near-infrared)–red spectral-domain (NRSD) model is coupled to a perpendicular soil moisture index (PSI) and a perpendicular vegetation index (PVI). We applied the model to the Huailai agricultural region of China with 55 scenes of GF-1 imagery during 2013–2017 and validated using ground measurements with footprint models for two eddy-covariance (EC) flux tower sites and one large aperture scintillometer (LAS) site. The results illustrate that the terrestrial daily LE can be estimated with squared correlation coefficients (R2) of 0.77–0.84 (p < 0.01) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of 17.9–21.5 W/m2 among all three sites. The site-calibrated statistics are improved by 0.14–0.25 for R2 and decreased by 4.2–8.3 W/m2 for RMSE as compared to the commonly used universal PT-JPL model. A satisfactory performance is achieved across all experimental conditions, encouraging the application of the NRSD model to estimate LE for other broad regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate land use/land cover (LULC) mapping over a large area is essential to environmentally sustainable development. Recently, the Chinese government established a new national economic zone called the Xiongan New Area, and along with the upcoming large-scale urban construction, this area will inevitably experience a dramatic LULC change, which will threaten the local ecological balance. In this article, we proposed a two-stage approach for LULC mapping in the Xiongan New Area ahead of the forthcoming dense urban construction. The first stage is to obtain base-class maps through a supervised imagery classification. Specifically, we designed a new object-based framework consisting of automatic image segmentation, pixel-based probabilistic estimation, and area-weighted probability statistics for Sentinel-2 multiresolution imagery classification. The second stage is an LULC map refinement process in which the temporal features of each land use category are extracted to refine the LULC classification. Through the implementation of the proposed two-stage approach, an LULC map containing permanent water, temporal water, natural vegetation, barren land, built-up land, and cropland categories can be produced. Through an accuracy assessment, the proposed multiresolution imagery classification method achieved the highest overall accuracy of 88.58% and an average accuracy (AA) of 87.78% compared with conventional classification methods. After obtaining the refined LULC map, we find that the current Xiongan New Area is in a less developed state, that is, cropland accounts for the highest proportion of 51.59%, which is followed by natural vegetation (22.38%) and built-up land (15.69%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term electricity consumption forecasting has been a hot issue due to its importance in power systems planning. Recently, system dynamics (SD) have been considered a potential method for electricity consumption forecasting. However, traditional SD methods are failed in forecasting future power systems toward low-carbon, due to the complex influencing factors and the simple SD model structure. In this study, a novel method combining SD and the ImPACT equation is proposed to solve the above problem. First, a new influencing factor system including emerging factors is established to consider the development of future power system. Subsequently, the ImPACT equation is employed to decompose the electricity consumption into four subsystems. By doing this, the linkage between factors and electricity consumption can be better revealed, which helps to improve the forecasting accuracy. Next, models for quantifying the correlation between subsystems and factors are established using SD. Finally, the proposed method is verified by forecasting the power consumption of China in the future year 2030 to 2050. Furthermore, various scenarios are set to analyze the changing trend of future power consumption by different influencing factors. The results of this article can provide important basic information for power supply and power grid planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric disturbance, sensor malfunctions, and other factors can cause serious gap pixels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference snow index (NDSI) products. In this article, MODIS NDSI gap pixels are reconstructed in a highly heterogeneous area with drastic snow accumulation and melting changes using a long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Three LSTM-based MODIS NDSI gap pixel reconstruction schemes, i.e., forward, backward, and bidirectional LSTM networks that separately use earlier, subsequent, and integrated earlier and subsequent timestamp information, are developed. NDSI information for the gap pixel is restored using the long-term spatiotemporal information for this pixel and its adjacent pixels. A case study of NDSI reconstruction in the source area of the Yellow River, northwestern China, during the 2018–2019 snow season, demonstrates that all three LSTM-based schemes can reliably generate spatiotemporally continuous NDSI data with an accuracy comparable to that of the original MODIS NDSI products under clear-sky conditions. The bidirectional LSTM-based scheme, which has the best performance, can achieve a desirable overall accuracy of 89.93%, with an omission error of 3.82% and a commission error of 6.25%, in terms of dichotomous evaluation based on in situ snow depth observations. The $R^{2}$ , average RMSE, overestimation error, and underestimation error are 0.95, 5.13%, 5.39, and 6.40%, respectively, in terms of the continuous value assessment based on the gap pixels assumption. Our results demonstrate the reliability and feasibility of the LSTM-based schemes in recovering the missing values in MODIS NDSI products by deeply excavating the spatial continuity and long-time series dependence of the snow cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of ongoing efforts to contain the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding the role of asymptomatic patients in the transmission system is essential for infection control. However, the optimal approach to risk assessment and management of asymptomatic cases remains unclear. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) epidemic propagation model. The model was constructed based on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China and accounting for the heterogeneity of social contact networks. The early community outbreaks in Wuhan were reconstructed and fitted with the actual data. We used this model to assess epidemic control measures for asymptomatic cases in three dimensions. The impact of asymptomatic cases on epidemic propagation was examined based on the effective reproduction number, abnormally high transmission events, and type and structure of transmission. Management of asymptomatic cases can help flatten the infection curve. Tracing 75% of the asymptomatic cases corresponds to a 32.5% overall reduction in new cases (compared with tracing no asymptomatic cases). Regardless of population-wide measures, household transmission is higher than other types of transmission, accounting for an estimated 50% of all cases. The magnitude of tracing of asymptomatic cases is more important than the timing; when all symptomatic patients were traced, tested, and isolated in a timely manner, the overall epidemic was not sensitive to the time of implementing the measures to trace asymptomatic patients. Disease control and prevention within families should be emphasized during an epidemic. Note to Practitioners—This article addresses the urgent need to assess the risk of another COVID-19 outbreak caused by asymptomatic cases and to find the optimal, most practical approach to asymptomatic case management. Previous studies mostly focused on the clinical and statistical characteristics of asymptomatic cases; few have evaluated the impact of asymptomatic case measures using mathematical modeling at the community scale. This study proposed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, No symptoms, Hospitalized and reported, Recovered, Death (SEINRHD) propagation model based on local community structures and social contact networks, according to the development characteristics and trend of COVID-19 in a Chinese community. The conclusion provides theoretical support for emergency work of relevant departments in different periods of an epidemic. In the early stages of the epidemic, timely detection and isolation of symptomatic patients should be a priority. Where there are surplus resources for epidemic prevention, the authorities should consider increasing the proportion of asymptomatic patients being traced. Epidemic prevention measures among family members should be a primary focus of attention. This combination of strategies can help reduce the rate of viral transmission and result in extinguishing the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operational indices optimization is crucial for the global optimization in beneficiation processes. This paper presents a multitasking multiobjective evolutionary method to solve operational indices optimization, which involves a formulated multiobjective multifactorial operational indices optimization (MO-MFO) problem and the proposed multiobjective MFO algorithm for solving the established MO-MFO problem. The MO-MFO problem includes multiple level of accurate models of operational indices optimization, which are generated on the basis of a data set collected from production. Among the formulated models, the most accurate one is considered to be the original functions of the solved problem, while the remained models are the helper tasks to accelerate the optimization of the most accurate model. For the MFO algorithm, the assistant models are alternatively in multitasking environment with the accurate model to transfer their knowledge to the accurate model during optimization in order to enhance the convergence of the accurate model. Meanwhile, the recently proposed two-stage assortative mating strategy for a multiobjective MFO algorithm is applied to transfer knowledge among multitasking tasks. The proposed multitasking framework for operational indices optimization has conducted on 10 different production conditions of beneficiation. Simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing the operational indices optimization of beneficiation problem. Note to Practitioners—Operational indices optimization is a typical approach to achieve global production optimization by efficiently coordinating all the indices to improve the production indices. In this paper, a multiobjective multitasking framework is developed to address the operational indices optimization, which includes a multitasking multiobjective operational indices optimization problem formulation and a multitasking multiobjective evolutionary optimization to solve the above-formulated optimization problem. The proposed approach can achieve a solution set for the decision-making. The simulation results on a real beneficiation process in China with 10 operational conditions show that the proposed approach is able to obtain a superior solution set, which is associated with a higher grade and yield of the product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, our objective is to propose a stability concept within the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) that does not require knowledge about preferences of other decision makers (DMs) in the conflict and is flexible to analyze the conflict with variable horizon. For that we propose the use of the maximin decision rule within the GMCR. More specifically, we consider a GMCR with two DMs and introduce the concept of Maximinh stability with horizon h for a given DM. The Maximinh stability concept was inspired by the notion of limited-move stability with horizon h present in the GMCR literature and it is adequate for modeling cautious DMs in conflicts where they have no knowledge about the other DM’s preferences. We establish what is the relationship among the Maximinhstabilities for different horizons and the relationship among Maximinh stability and other GMCR stability concepts. Finally, we present an application to illustrate the proposed stability concept, namely, a neuroscience technological selection conflict in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]