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The prediction of combined sewer overflow (CSO) operation in urban environments presents a challenging task for water utilities. The operation of CSOs (most often in heavy rainfall conditions) prevents houses and businesses from flooding. However, sometimes, CSOs do not operate as they should, potentially bringing environmental pollution risks. Therefore, CSOs should be appropriately managed by water utilities, highlighting the need for adapted decision support systems. This paper proposes an automated CSO predictive model construction methodology using field monitoring data, as a substitute for the commonly established hydrological-hydraulic modeling approach for time-series prediction of CSO statuses. It is a systematic methodology factoring in all monitored field variables to construct time-series dependencies for CSO statuses. The model construction process is largely automated with little human intervention, and the pertinent variables together with their associated time lags for every CSO are holistically and automatically generated. A fast least absolute shrinkage and selection operator solution generating scheme is proposed to expedite the model construction process, where matrix inversions are effectively eliminated. The whole algorithm works in a stepwise manner, invoking either an incremental or decremental movement for including or excluding one model regressor into, or from, the predictive model at every step. The computational complexity is thereby analyzed with the pseudo code provided. Actual experimental results from both single-step ahead (i.e., 15 min) and multistep ahead predictions are finally produced and analyzed on a U.K. pilot area with various types of monitoring data made available, demonstrating the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA) method for the unavailability of supply of gas networks. The method is based on the automatic generation of fault trees, which estimate the probability of disruption of the gas delivery from terminals/storages to the demand nodes. Moreover, it allows probabilistic analyses of the availability of gas supply to individual demand nodes and to the overall gas network. To assess the importance of each network component, the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth importance measures are utilized. The developed method can identify weakness in the gas network and can guide expansion planning and maintenance scheduling activities. Furthermore, the developed framework is enriched by steady-state analysis of the gas network operations performed using a physical flow/pressure model. The impact of a component failure on the gas supply interruption at different demand nodes is assessed by the physical model in retrospective to the FTA results. The framework is exemplified with reference to the reduced gas network of Great Britain. The results provide insights to support a robust reliability assessment of the gas network. Moreover, the probability mapping of the most important components in the gas network informs optimal strategies for maintenance scheduling as well for prioritizing improvements of the gas network aimed at significant risk reduction. Remarkably, the failure of components identified as most important according to the FTA importance measures may not have significant effects on the gas supply. A discussion on the range of applicability and limitations of the two methodologies is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This letter analyzes the difficulty of estimating power system inertia under ambient conditions using the Center-of-Inertia (CoI) system model. We show that the main obstacle to doing this is a difficulty in detecting a peak in the Power Spectral Density (PSD) of the frequency trace. This is due to a combination of two factors: (i) the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with a high mean-reversion time, which models the load disturbance and is mathematically equivalent to a low-pass filter with a high time constant; (ii) the CoI dominant mode is highly damped. This observation also explains why it is possible to estimate system inertia under ambient conditions using wide-area PMU measurements by exploiting information about inter-area oscillations which have lower damping than the dominant mode of the CoI model. We validated those findings by using the PSD of the actual 2-hour frequency trace for Great Britain from 00:00 to 02:00 of January 01, 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]