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Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a public health problem in the world, particularly in tropical and sub‐tropical countries. This study aimed to determine the hotspots of CL in Kerman Province of Iran and model their potential for the establishment of new disease foci. All documents related to studies conducted in Kerman Province on CL published between 1978 and 2017 were retrieved and categorized. Spatial distributions of the vector, reservoir and human infection of CL were mapped. MaxEnt ecological model was used to predict the environmental suitability of the vector and reservoir(s) of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL). The most hazardous sites with the potential for the establishment of new disease foci were determined for field operations. Statistics of new cases of CL was obtained from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) of the ministry of health for the period 2011–2016. A total of 6,056 cases of CL were recorded, while we found a decreasing pattern in the incidence of CL from 46.48 per 100,000 inhabitants to 22.97. The best ecological niches for Phlebotomus papatasi are located in the central, western, northwest and southwest regions of the province. Also, environmental suitability for the reservoirs was highest in the central, southern and southwestern regions. The model predicted the gerbils can be present in some foci of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). However, this result should be confirmed through a precise field study, and if validated, plans should be made to prevent the emergence of new foci of ZCL in the risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]