1. Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East
- Author
-
Zittis, G., Almazroui, M., Alpert, P., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dahdal, Y., Fnais, M., Francis, D., Hadjinicolaou, P., Howari, F., Jrrar, A., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Kulmala, M., Lazoglou, G., Mihalopoulos, N., Lin, X., Rudich, Y., Sciare, J., Stenchikov, G., Xoplaki, E., Lelieveld, J., 1 Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE‐C) The Cyprus Institute Nicosia Cyprus, 2 Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research Department of Meteorology King Abdulaziz University Jeddah Saudi Arabia, 3 Department of Geophysics Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel, 5 Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE) Aix Marseille University CNRS IRD Avignon University Aix‐en‐Provence France, 6 Nature Palestine Society Jerusalem Palestine, 7 College of Sciences King Saud University Riyadh Saudi Arabia, 8 Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab Khalifa University of Science and Technology Abu Dhabi UAE, 9 College of Natural and Health Sciences (CNHS) Zayed University Abu Dhabi UAE, 10 Computational E‐Research Unit Advanced Research Centre Royal Scientific Society Amman Jordan, 11 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development National Observatory of Athens Athens Greece, 13 Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics) University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland, 4 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE) Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Paris France, 14 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot Israel, 15 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal Saudi Arabia, 16 Department of Geography Justus Liebig University Giessen Giessen Germany, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), and Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
N. Mihalopoulos ,E. Xoplaki Methodology: G. Zittis ,E. Xoplaki Formal analysis: G. Zittis ,P. Hadjinicolaou ,G. Lazoglou ,D. G. Kaskaoutis ,D. Francis ,M. Almazroui ,M. Kulmala ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,E. Xoplaki ,F. Howari ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,J. Lelieveld Project Administration: G. Zittis ,P. Ciais ,Y. Rudich ,X. Lin ,Y. Dahdal ,A. Jrrar ,E. Xoplaki Funding acquisition: J. Sciare Investigation: G. Zittis ,Geophysics ,ddc:551.6 ,G. Zittis ,J. Lelieveld Data curation: G. Zittis ,M. Fnais ,P. Alpert - Abstract
Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change., Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes., European Union Horizon 2020, https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF