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3 results on '"Roberto Villalobos"'

1. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Author

Elizabeth Lewis, Abdullah Kahraman, Christoph Schär, Conrad Wasko, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Jason P. Evans, Katy L. Peat, Hayley J. Fowler, Paul A. O'Gorman, Selma B. Guerreiro, Harriet G. Orr, David Pritchard, Gabriele Villarini, Steven Chan, Nalan Senol Cabi, Nikolina Ban, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Andreas F. Prein, Seth Westra, Marie Ekström, Richard P. Allan, Haider Ali, Ashish Sharma, Stephen Blenkinsop, Peter A. Stott, Renaud Barbero, Xiaofeng Li, Giorgia Fosser, Murray Dale, Michael Wehner, Brian Golding, Anna Whitford, Geert Lenderink, Robert Dunn, Peter Berg, School of Engineering [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Department of Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Willis Research Network London, JBA Consulting, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], School of Earth and Ocean Sciences [Cardiff], Cardiff University, Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori (IUSS), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), School of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Sydney], Department of Infrastructure Engineering [Melbourne], Melbourne School of Engineering [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, Computational Research Division [LBNL Berkeley] (CRD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), University of Adelaide, NERC-funded FUTURE-STORMS (NE/R01079X/1)FUTURE-DRAINAGE (NE/S017348/1)Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society asa Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (WM140025) holderMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101)NSF AGS-1552195 the MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative, European Project: 617329,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-CoG,INTENSE(2014), European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016), SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE NORRKÖPING SWE, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), JBAConsulting, and South Barn

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, General Mathematics, rainfall, 0207 environmental engineering, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Flash flood, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global warming, Flooding (psychology), General Engineering, Landslide, climate change, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Scale (social sciences), Convective storm detection, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, ZABR, flash flood
Abstract

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Published
2021

2. Towards a compound event-oriented climate model evaluation: A decomposition of the underlying biases in multivariate fire and heat stress hazards

Author

Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Emanuele Bevacqua, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Graeme Auld, Laura Crocetti, Bilyana Mircheva, Minh Ha, Jakob Zscheischler, Carlo De Michele, School of Engineering [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], Escuela de Ingeniería Civil [Costa Rica], Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), School of Mathematics - University of Edinburgh, University of Edinburgh, Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation [Wien], Technical University of Vienna [Vienna] (TU WIEN), Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry [Zürich] (IGP), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Meteorology and Geophysics [Sofia], Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski', SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale (DICA), and Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI)

Subjects
13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 0207 environmental engineering, 02 engineering and technology, 020701 environmental engineering
Abstract

Climate models' outputs are affected by biases that need to be detected and adjusted to model climate impacts. Many climate hazards and climate-related impacts are associated with the interaction between multiple drivers, i.e. by compound events. So far climate model biases are typically assessed based on the hazard of interest, and it is unclear how much a potential bias in the dependence of the hazard drivers contributes to the overall bias and how the biases in the drivers interact. Here, based on copula theory, we develop a multivariate bias assessment framework, which allows for disentangling the biases in hazard indicators in terms of the underlying univariate drivers and their statistical dependence. Based on this framework, we dissect biases in fire and heat stress hazards in a suite of global climate models by considering two simplified hazard indicators, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and the Chandler Burning Index (CBI). Both indices solely rely on temperature and relative humidity. The spatial pattern of the hazards indicators is well represented by climate models. However, substantial biases exist in the representation of extreme conditions, especially in the CBI (spatial average of absolute bias: 21 °C) due to the biases driven by relative humidity (20 °C). Biases in WBGT (1.1 °C) are small compared to the biases driven by temperature (1.9 °C) and relative humidity (1.4 °C), as the two biases compensate each other. In many regions, also biases related to the statistical dependence (0.85 °C) are important for WBGT, which indicates that well-designed physically-based multivariate bias adjustment should be considered for hazards and impacts that depend on multiple drivers. The proposed compound event-oriented evaluation of climate model biases is easily applicable to other hazard types. Furthermore, it can contribute to improved present and future risk assessments through increasing our understanding of the biases’ sources in the simulation of climate impacts.

Published
2020

3. A synthesis of hourly and daily precipitation extremes in different climatic regions

Author

Selma B. Guerreiro, Xiaofeng Li, Seth Westra, Haider Ali, Stephen Blenkinsop, Roberto Villalobos, Renaud Barbero, Steven Chan, Hayley J. Fowler, Elizabeth Lewis, Vincent Moron, Geert Lenderink, Vimal Mishra, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Newcastle University [Newcastle], University of Adelaide, Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England, Indian Institute of Technology Indore (IITI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Geography, Planning and Development, 0207 environmental engineering, Magnitude (mathematics), [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, 02 engineering and technology, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, lcsh:QC851-999, Precipitation duration, Seasonal cycle, 01 natural sciences, Atmosphere, Diurnal cycle, medicine, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Hourly precipitation, Tropics, Storm, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Daily precipitation, CAPE, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Period (geology), Environmental science, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, Precipitation intensity
Abstract

Climatological features of observed annual maximum hourly precipitation have not been documented systematically compared to those on daily timescales due to observational limitations. Drawing from a quality-controlled database of hourly records sampling different climatic regions including the United States, Australia, the British Isles, Japan, India and peninsular Malaysia over the 1950–2016 period, we examined climatological features of annual maximum precipitation (AMP) across timescales ranging from 1-hr (AMP1−hr) to 24-hr (AMP24−hr). Our analysis reveals strong relations between the magnitude of AMP and the climatological average annual precipitation (AAP), with geographic variations in the magnitude of AMP24−hr across topographic gradients not evident in AMP1−hr. Most AMP1−hr are found to be embedded within short-duration storms (>70% of AMP1−hr are embedded within 1–5 h storms), especially in regions with low AAP and in the tropical zone. Likewise, most AMP24−hr are found to be the accumulation of a very limited number of wet hours in the 24-h period (>80% of AMP24−hr are due to storms lasting

Published
2019

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