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A generic Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM) approach is presented. This provides advice to farmers and policy makers on good practice for reducing nutrient loss and, hopefully, persuades them to implement such measures. Combined with a range of nutrient transport modelling tools and field experiments, NERMs can play an important role in reducing nutrient export from agricultural land. The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is presented as an example NERM. The PERM integrates hydrological understanding of runoff with a number of agronomic and policy factors into a clear problem-solving framework. This allows farmers and policy makers to visualise strategies for reducing phosphorus loss through proactive land management. The risk of pollution is assessed by a series of informed questions relating to farming intensity and practice. This information is combined with the concept of runoff management to point towards simple, practical remedial strategies which do not compromise farmers’ ability to obtain sound economic returns from their crop and livestock. Keywords: nutrients, phosphorus, export, risk, decision support, matrix

The impacts of afforestation at Plynlimon in the Severn catchment, mid-Wales, and in the Bedford Ouse catchment in south-east England are evaluated using the INCA model to simulate Nitrogen (N) fluxes and concentrations. The INCA model represents the key hydrological and N processes operating in catchments and simulates the daily dynamic behaviour as well as the annual fluxes. INCA has been applied to five years of data from the Hafren and Hore headwater sub-catchments (6.8 km2 area in total) of the River Severn at Plynlimon and the model was calibrated and validated against field data. Simulation of afforestation is achieved by altering the uptake rate parameters in the model. INCA simulates the daily N behaviour in the catchments with good accuracy as well as reconstructing the annual budgets for N release following clearfelling; a four-fold increase in N fluxes was followed by a slow recovery after re-afforestation. For comparison, INCA has been applied to the large (8380 km2) Bedford Ouse catchment to investigate the impact of replacing 20% arable land with forestry. The reduction in fertiliser inputs from arable farming and the N uptake by the forest are predicted to reduce the N flux reaching the main river system, leading to a 33% reduction in N-Nitrate concentrations in the river water. Keywords: afforestation, water quality, nitrogen, modelling, land-use change, Wales, Plynlimon, Hore, Hafren, Bedford Ouse, Severn

A regional overview of the water quality and ecology of the River Lee catchment is presented. Specifically, data describing the chemical, microbiological and macrobiological water quality and fisheries communities have been analysed, based on a division into river, sewage treatment works, fish-farm, lake and industrial samples. Nutrient enrichment and the highest concentrations of metals and micro-organics were found in the urbanised, lower reaches of the Lee and in the Lee Navigation. Average annual concentrations of metals were generally within environmental quality standards although, on many occasions, concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc were in excess of the standards. Various organic substances (used as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chlorination by-products and industrial solvents) were widely detected in the Lee system. Concentrations of ten micro-organic substances were observed in excess of their environmental quality standards, though not in terms of annual averages. Sewage treatment works were the principal point source input of nutrients, metals and micro-organic determinands to the catchment. Diffuse nitrogen sources contributed approximately 60% and 27% of the in-stream load in the upper and lower Lee respectively, whereas approximately 60% and 20% of the in-stream phosphorus load was derived from diffuse sources in the upper and lower Lee. For metals, the most significant source was the urban runoff from North London. In reaches less affected by effluent discharges, diffuse runoff from urban and agricultural areas dominated trends. High microbiological content, observed in the River Lee particularly in urbanised reaches, was far in excess of the EC Bathing Water Directive standards. Water quality issues and degraded habitat in the lower reaches of the Lee has led to impoverished aquatic fauna but, within the mid-catchment reaches and upper agricultural tributaries, less nutrient enrichment and channel alteration has permitted more diverse aquatic fauna. Keywords: River Lee, River Thames, water quality, nutrients, metals, ecology, hydrology, diffuse and point source pollution

International audience; The results of a literature study examining quantitative estimates of N2O emission rates are presented for a range of land-uses across Europe. The analysis shows that the highest N2O emission rates are for agricultural lands compared to forests and grasslands. The main factors regulating these rates are available mineral nitrogen, soil temperature, soil water content and the available labile organic compounds. These controls operate across different time-scales, all must exceed a certain threshold for N2O emission to occur. The results support the need for an emission factor function of land-use and climate within models describing nitrogen dynamics in catchments. This would allow the assessment of the net N2O emission within catchments in terms of current levels and potential changes associated with climate variability, climate change and land use change. Keywords: nitrous oxide, soil water content, inorganic N, soil temperature, ecosystems, land-use management, soil type

The INCA (Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments) model was applied to the River Tweed in the Scottish Borders, a large-scale (4400km2), spatially heterogeneous catchment, draining a wide range of agricultural land-use types, and which contributes approximately 20% of UK river flows to the North Sea. The model was calibrated for the first four years' data record (1994 to 1997) and tested over the following three years (1998 to 2000). The model calibration and testing periods incorporated a high degree of variability in climatic conditions and river flows within the Tweed catchment. The ability of the INCA model to reproduce broad-scale spatial patterns and seasonal dynamics in river flows and nitrate concentrations suggests that the processes controlling first order variability in river water nitrate concentrations have been represented successfully within the model. The tendency of the model to overestimate summer/early autumn baseflow nitrate concentrations during dry years may be linked to the operation of aquatic plant uptake effects. It is, therefore, suggested that consideration be given to incorporating a spatially and temporally variable in-stream plant uptake term for the application of INCA to lowland eutrophic rivers. Scenarios to examine possible impacts of environmental change on nitrate concentrations on the Tweed are examined. These include the effects of (i) implementing different recommendations for fertiliser use and land use change under the Nitrate Sensitive Areas (NSA) Scheme and the Scottish Code of Good Agricultural Practice, (ii) worst case scenario changes linked to a dramatic reduction in livestock numbers as a result of a crisis in UK livestock farming and (iii) changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Keywords: Nitrate, nitrogen, modelling, Tweed, INCA