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Dog and cat rabies cases imported from rabies enzootic countries represent a major threat for areas that have acquired rabies-free status and quantitative risk analyses (QRAs) are developed in order to assess this risk of rabies reintroduction through dog and cat movements. Herein we describe a framework to evaluate dog and cat rabies incidence levels in exporting countries along with the associated uncertainty for such QRAs. For enzootic dog rabies areas (EDRAs), we extended and adapted a previously published method to specify the relationship between dog rabies vaccination coverage and canine rabies incidence, the relationship between dog and cat rabies incidences, and then to predict annual dog and cat rabies incidences. In non-enzootic dog rabies areas (nEDRAs), we provided annual incidence based on declared dog and cat rabies cases. For EDRAs, we predicted an annual incidence potentially greater than 1.5% in dogs and about ten times lower in cats with a high burden in Africa and Asia but much lower in Latin America. In nEDRAs, the occurrence of rabies was lower and of similar magnitude in dogs and cats. However, wildlife could still potentially infect dogs and cats through spillover events. This framework can directly be incorporated in QRAs of rabies reintroduction.

Background Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-seroconversion, or loss of HBsAg and acquisition of anti-hepatitis B surface (HBs) antibodies, defines functional cure of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. After HBsAg-loss, little is known regarding the development of anti-HBs antibodies and even less so in individuals co-infected with HIV. Objectives To determine anti-HBs antibody kinetics after HBsAg-loss and explore determinants of HBsAg-seroconversion in HIV-HBV co-infected patients. Study design Patients enrolled in the French HIV-HBV cohort were included if they had >1 study visit after HBsAg-loss. Individual patient kinetics of anti-HBs antibody levels were modeled over time using mixed-effect non-linear regression, whereby maximum specific growth rate and maximal level of antibody production were estimated from a Gompertz growth equation. Results Fourteen (4.6%) of 308 co-infected patients followed in the cohort exhibited HBsAg-loss, all of whom were undergoing antiretroviral therapy. Nine (64.3%) of these patients achieved HBsAg-seroconversion during a median 3.0 years (IQR = 1.1–5.1) after HBsAg-loss. Across individuals with HBsAg-seroconversion, the fastest rates of antibody growth ranged between 0.57–1.93 year−1 (population maximum growth rate = 1.02) and antibody production plateaued between 2.09–3.66 log10 mIU/mL at the end of follow-up (population maximal antibody levels = 2.66). Patients with HBsAg-seroconversion had substantial decreases in HBV DNA viral loads (P = 0.03) and proportion with elevated ALT levels (P = 0.02) and HBeAg-positive serology (P = 0.08). No such differences were observed in those without HBsAg-seroconversion. Conclusions Most co-infected patients with HBsAg-seroconversion produced and maintained stable antibody levels, yet kinetics of anti-HBs production were much slower compared to those observed post-vaccination or after clearance of acute HBV-infection.

Influenza virus infection in pigs is a major farming problem, causing considerable economic loss and posing a zoonotic threat. In addition the pig is an excellent model for understanding immunity to influenza viruses as this is a natural host pathogen system. Experimentally, influenza virus is delivered to pigs intra-nasally, by intra-tracheal instillation or by aerosol, but there is little data comparing the outcome of different methods. We evaluated the shedding pattern, cytokine responses in nasal swabs and immune responses following delivery of low or high dose swine influenza pdmH1N1 virus to the respiratory tract of pigs intra-nasally or by aerosol and compared them to those induced in naturally infected contact pigs. Our data shows that natural infection by contact induces remarkably high innate and adaptive immune response, although the animals were exposed to a very low virus dose. In contacts, the kinetics of virus shedding were slow and prolonged and more similar to the low dose directly infected animals. In contrast the cytokine profile in nasal swabs, antibody and cellular immune responses of contacts more closely resemble immune responses in high dose directly inoculated animals. Consideration of these differences is important for studies of disease pathogenesis and assessment of vaccine protective efficacy. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13567-016-0390-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Heterogeneity of infectiousness is an important feature of the spread of many infections, with implications for disease dynamics and control, but its relevance to human influenza virus is still unclear. For a transmission event to occur, an infected individual needs to release infectious particles via respiratory symptoms. Key factors to take into account are virus dynamics, particle release in relation to respiratory symptoms, the amount of virus shed and, importantly, how these vary between infected individuals. A quantitative understanding of the process of influenza transmission is relevant to designing effective mitigation measures. Here we develop an influenza infection dynamics model fitted to virological, systemic and respiratory symptoms to investigate how within-host dynamics relates to infectiousness. We show that influenza virus shedding is highly heterogeneous between subjects. From analysis of data on experimental infections, we find that a small proportion (