1. Prognostic factors associated with 15-year mortality in patients with hospitalized systolic HF: Results of the observational community-based EPICAL cohort study
- Author
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Faiez Zannad, Jean-Pierre Villemot, François Alla, Nelly Agrinier, Nathalie Thilly, Serge Briançon, Paul-Michel Mertes, Yves Juillière, CIC 1433 Epidémiologie clinique, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Maladies chroniques, santé perçue, et processus d'adaptation (APEMAC), Université de Lorraine (UL), Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 (UPD5), Centre d'Investigation Clinique - Epidemiologie Clinique/essais Cliniques Nancy, Cancéropôle du Grand Est-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Service de Cardiologie [CHRU Nancy], Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy), CIC-Nancy, Institut Lorrain du Coeur et des Vaisseaux Louis Mathieu [Nancy]-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Nouvel Hôpital Civil, Hospices Civils de Strasbourg, Fédération de Médecine Translationnelle de Strasbourg (FMTS), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA), Service de Chirurgie Cardio-vasculaire [CHRU Nancy], EPICAL, Centre d'investigation clinique - Epidémiologie clinique [Nancy] (CIC-EC), Centre d'investigation clinique [Nancy] (CIC), Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL), and Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)
- Subjects
Male ,Survival rate ,Time Factors ,Kaplan-Meier Estimate ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Severity of Illness Index ,Cohort Studies ,0302 clinical medicine ,Cause of Death ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Prospective Studies ,Survivors ,Prospective cohort study ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,education.field_of_study ,Ejection fraction ,Age Factors ,Middle Aged ,Prognosis ,3. Good health ,Hospitalization ,Female ,France ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,Cohort study ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Population ,Heart failure ,Prognostic factors ,Risk Assessment ,03 medical and health sciences ,Sex Factors ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,education ,Aged ,Proportional Hazards Models ,Proportional hazards model ,business.industry ,medicine.disease ,Comorbidity ,Survival Analysis ,Multivariate Analysis ,Physical therapy ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,business ,Heart Failure, Systolic - Abstract
Aims Little data on very long-term survival and associated prognostic factors in heart failure (HF) are available. The aim was to describe 15-year survival and to identify the baseline prognostic factors associated with mortality in a community-based sample of patients hospitalized for systolic HF. Methods Vital status was collected 15years after inclusion of 352 patients hospitalized for systolic HF born in France from the prospective cohort EPICAL. The prognostic value of baseline socioeconomic, clinical and biological characteristics on 15-year mortality was assessed using Cox models. Results The mean (±SD) age was 63.9 (±10.8)years, 76% of the patients were male, median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 23% IR [18–27]. Overall, the mean (±SD) follow-up was 1826 (±111)days. A total of 290 (82.4%) deaths and 22 heart transplantations occurred during the follow-up. The 15-year survival rate was 13.2% (95% CI [9.0–16.3]), i.e. 4.7 times lower than the one observed in the general population. Baseline characteristics associated with 15-year mortality were: age older than 65years (HR=1.48, CI 95% [1.15–1.90]), diabetes mellitus (1.31 [1.00–1.72]), chronic kidney disease (1.73 [1.23–2.43]), serious comorbidity (1.29 [1.02–1.64]), time from first HF diagnosis exceeding 1year at inclusion (1.68 [1.26–2.24]), HF hospitalization during the previous 12months (1.36 [1.04–1.78]), heart rate higher than 110 beats per minute (1.87 [1.26–2.76]), LVEF % (0.88 per quartile increase [0.80–1.98]), and serum sodium below 130mmol/L (3.14 [1.76–5.61]. Conclusions Only 13% of patients hospitalized for HF survived at 15years. The usual mid-term prognostic factors are also predictive of very long-term survival.
- Published
- 2017