1. How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach
- Author
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Florence Levréro, Romane H. Cristescu, Amandine Pierre, Jean-Sébastien Pierre, Nelly Ménard, Céline Genton, Pascaline Le Gouar, Sylvain Gatti, Station Biologique de Paimpont CNRS UMR 6653 (OSUR), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] (ECOBIO), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Sydney] (BEES), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Ecologie et Neuro-Ethologie Sensorielles (ENES), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Institut des Neurosciences Paris-Saclay (NeuroPSI), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-11-JVS7-015, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, espèce phares, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, gip ecofor, Ministère de lEcologie et du Développement Durable France, Université de Rennes (UR), Faculty of Science, Health, Education and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia, Centre de Neurosciences Paris-Sud (CNPS), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-11-JSV7-0015,IDiPop,Les maladies infectieuses émergentes : facteur de l'évolution des populations socialement structurées ? Le cas du système Ebola-Gorille.(2011), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1)
- Subjects
Male ,0106 biological sciences ,Gorilla gorilla gorilla ,media_common.quotation_subject ,[SDV.NEU.NB]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Neurobiology ,Population Dynamics ,Population ,Disease ,Biology ,Models, Biological ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Mark and recapture ,03 medical and health sciences ,recovery ,Animals ,Social Behavior ,education ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,030304 developmental biology ,media_common ,2. Zero hunger ,0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,Gorilla gorilla ,[SDV.NEU.PC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Psychology and behavior ,Ecology ,Outbreak ,[SDV.NEU.SC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Cognitive Sciences ,emerging infectious disease ,Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola ,sociality ,capture–recapture ,Ape Diseases ,Social dynamics ,Congo ,Animal ecology ,Emerging infectious disease ,Female ,Animal Science and Zoology ,Psychological resilience ,demographic crash ,Demography - Abstract
International audience; Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances.
- Published
- 2015
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