1. Modelling the probability and impact of false‐positive serology for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato: A case study
- Author
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Houben, Rosa M A C, Meersschaert, Carole, Hendrickx, Guy, Pitel, Pierre-Hugues, Amory, Hélène, Equine Internal Medicine, dES AVR, CS_Welfare & emerging diseases, Department of Equine Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Laboratoires Réunis, Avia-GIS [Zoersel], LABÉO, Pôle d’analyses et de recherche de Normandie (LABÉO), Veterinary Virology and Animal Viral Diseases, Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, FARAH, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Université de Liège, Equine Internal Medicine, dES AVR, and CS_Welfare & emerging diseases
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,040301 veterinary sciences ,Population ,Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay ,Serology ,0403 veterinary science ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Lyme disease ,Belgium ,Borrelia burgdorferi Group ,Seroepidemiologic Studies ,Internal medicine ,Borrelia ,medicine ,Credible interval ,Seroprevalence ,Animals ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Horses ,misdiagnosis ,Borrelia burgdorferi ,education ,education.field_of_study ,Lyme Disease ,Surveys and Population Studies ,[SDV.BA.MVSA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Veterinary medicine and animal Health ,biology ,seroprevalence ,business.industry ,Bayes Theorem ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,General Medicine ,biology.organism_classification ,medicine.disease ,Antibodies, Bacterial ,antimicrobial use ,3. Good health ,LYME ,horse ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Lyme ,Horse Diseases ,General Article ,business - Abstract
International audience; Background: Serological screening tests for Lyme borreliosis have poor specificity, with potential for misdiagnosis and unnecessary antimicrobial treatment.Objectives: To evaluate the impact of Lyme borreliosis seroprevalence and serologic test characteristics on the probability of obtaining a false-positive result and impact on antimicrobial use.Study design: Cross-sectional serological survey and modelling.Methods: Sera from 303 horses in southern Belgium were analysed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Apparent seroprevalence was derived from serological data and a Bayesian estimate of true seroprevalence was computed. These were a starting point to model the impact of test and population characteristics on the probability of obtaining false-positive results and consequently unnecessary treatments and complications.Results: Apparent and true seroprevalence were 22% (95% CI 18%-27%) and 11% (credible interval with 95% probability 0.6%-21%) respectively. We estimate that two-thirds of positive samples are false positive in southern Belgium, with one in five of tested horses potentially misdiagnosed as infected. Around 5% of antimicrobial use in equine veterinary practice in Belgium may be attributable to treatment of a false-positive result.Main limitations: There was uncertainty regarding the ELISA's sensitivity and specificity.Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of appreciating the poor diagnostic value of ELISA screening for Lyme borreliosis as demonstrated by this case study of seroprevalence in southern Belgium where we demonstrate that a nontrivial number of horses is estimated to receive unwarranted treatment due to poor appreciation of screening test characteristics by practitioners, contributing substantially to unnecessary use of antimicrobials.
- Published
- 2021
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