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This research focuses on determining the level of inventory in a downstream supply chain for fuel products in Indonesian oil and gas company prespective. The variability in supply and demand is a problem in maintaining the stability of services to the consumers. High inventory costs that are completely borne by the company are also a problem that needs to be controlled. Therefore, determining inventory levels is very important to mitigate the variability of supply and demand that occurs with optimum inventory costs. This research designs a probabilistic model by considering variability in supply and demand to determine safety stock so that the correct level of Fuel Product inventory at each Storage Point can be determined. This research method is quantitative research based on empirical data. It is hoped that the research results will be able to obtain inventory control which can be taken into consideration by oil and gas company in managing the downstream supply chain of fuel products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]