1. 辽东山区春季极端低温时空分布特征及发生概率预测.
- Author
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蔡慧君, 金 磊, 肇同斌, 陈庆达, 冯香程, and 李秀芬
- Abstract
The spatiotemporal characteristics are investigated by EOF method and Morlet wavelet analysis based on the spring daily minimum temperature of 13 representative weather stations in Eastern Liaoning mountainous region during 1960-2014. The probability distributions of each station’s extreme minimum temperature sequence are also modeled by the following methods:Gumble-I distribution, Weibull distribution, and Normal distribution. The best model was selected to calculate the extreme minimum temperature at different recurrence periods and occurrence probability and spatial distribution. We find that (1) The spatial distribution of spring extreme minimum temperature in the Eastern Liaoning mountainous region was mainly decomposed into the entire domain EOF mode, the north-south EOF mode, and the east-west EOF mode; (2) There were periods of 5 years and 10 years in the entire domain for extreme minimum temperature; (3) The Weibull distribution was the most appropriate model for the patterns of spring extreme minimum temperature in Eastern Liaoning mountainous region. The insignificant differences between predicted and measured extreme minimum temperature in different recurrence periods indicated minior errors (Absolute error <1℃, R2=0.98); (4) The northern area and high-altitude area are vulnerable to spring low-temperature disasters. The probability and distribution of mild low-temperature disasters is the largest, the moderate follows, and the severe is the minimal. In conclusion, our results provide scientific reference for the prediction of extreme minimum temperature in this region, and the prevention of recurring low-temperature disaster after spring warm-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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