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Background: Spinocerebellar ataxia types 2 (SCA2) and 3 (SCA3/MJD) are diseases due to dominant unstable expansions of CAG repeats (CAGexp). Age of onset of symptoms (AO) correlates with the CAGexp length. Repeat instability leads to increases in the expanded repeats, to important AO anticipations and to the eventual extinction of lineages. Because of that, compensatory forces are expected to act on the maintenance of expanded alleles, but they are poorly understood. Objectives: we described the CAGexp dynamics, adapting a classical equation and aiming to estimate for how many generations will the descendants of a de novo expansion last. Methods: A mathematical model was adapted to encompass anticipation, fitness, and allelic segregation; and empirical data fed the model. The arbitrated ancestral mutations included in the model had the lowest CAGexp and the highest AO described in the literature. One thousand generations were simulated until the alleles were eliminated, fixed, or 650 generations had passed. Results : All SCA2 lineages were eliminated in a median of 10 generations. In SCA3/MJD lineages, 593 were eliminated in a median of 29 generations. The other ones were eliminated due to anticipation after the 650th generation or remained indefinitely with CAG repeats transitioning between expanded and unexpanded ranges. Discussion : the model predicted outcomes compatible with empirical data - the very old ancestral SCA3/MJD haplotype, and the de novo SCA2 expansions -, which previously seemed to be contradictory. This model accommodates these data into understandable dynamics and might be useful for other CAGexp disorders., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Sena, Lemes, Furtado, Saraiva-Pereira and Jardim.)

Objectives: Spinocerebellar ataxia type 3/Machado-Joseph disease (SCA3/MJD) is a polyglutamine disorder with no current disease-modifying treatment. Conformational changes in mutant ataxin-3 trigger different pathogenic cascades, including reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation; however, the clinical relevance of oxidative stress elements as peripheral biomarkers of SCA3/MJD remains unknown. We aimed to evaluate ROS production and antioxidant defense capacity in symptomatic and presymptomatic SCA3/MJD individuals and correlate these markers with clinical and molecular data with the goal of assessing their properties as disease biomarkers., Methods: Molecularly confirmed SCA3/MJD carriers and controls were included in an exploratory case-control study. Serum ROS, measured by 2',7'-dichlorofluorescein diacetate (DCFH-DA) as well as superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) antioxidant enzyme activities, levels were assessed., Results: Fifty-eight early/moderate stage symptomatic SCA3/MJD, 12 presymptomatic SCA3/MJD, and 47 control individuals were assessed. The DCFH-DA levels in the symptomatic group were 152.82 nmol/mg of protein [95% confidence interval (CI), 82.57-223.08, p  < 0.001] higher than in the control and 243.80 nmol/mg of protein (95% CI, 130.64-356.96, p  < 0.001) higher than in the presymptomatic group. The SOD activity in the symptomatic group was 3 U/mg of protein (95% CI, 0.015-6.00, p  = 0.048) lower than in the presymptomatic group. The GSH-Px activity in the symptomatic group was 13.96 U/mg of protein (95% CI, 5.90-22.03, p  < 0.001) lower than in the control group and 20.52 U/mg of protein (95% CI, 6.79-34.24, p  < 0.001) lower than in the presymptomatic group and was inversely correlated with the neurological examination score for spinocerebellar ataxias ( R  = -0.309, p  = 0.049)., Conclusion: Early/moderate stage SCA3/MJD patients presented a decreased antioxidant capacity and increased ROS generation. GSH-Px activity was the most promising oxidative stress disease biomarker in SCA3/MJD. Further longitudinal studies are necessary to identify both the roles of redox parameters in SCA3/MJD pathophysiology and as surrogate outcomes for clinical trials.