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BackgroundThe clinical dementia rating (CDR) scale is commonly used to diagnose dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The sum of boxes of the CDR (CDR-SB) has recently been emphasized and applied to interventional trials for tracing the progression of cognitive impairment (CI) in the early stages of AD. We aimed to study the influence of baseline CDR-SB on disease progression to dementia or reversion to normal cognition (NC).Materials and methodsThe baseline CDR < 1 cohort registered from September 2015 to August 2020 with longitudinal follow-up in the History-based Artificial Intelligence Clinical Dementia Diagnostic System (HAICDDS) database was retrospectively analyzed for the rates of conversion to CDR ≥ 1. A Cox regression model was applied to study the influence of CDR-SB levels on progression, adjusting for age, education, sex, neuropsychological tests, neuropsychiatric symptoms, parkinsonism, and multiple vascular risk factors.ResultsA total of 1,827 participants were analyzed, including 1,258 (68.9%) non-converters, and 569 (31.1%) converters with mean follow-up of 2.1 (range 0.4–5.5) and 1.8 (range 0.3–5.0) years, respectively. Conversion rates increased with increasing CDR-SB scores. Compared to a CDR-SB score of 0, the hazard ratios (HR) for conversion to dementia were 1.51, 1.91, 2.58, 2.13, 3.46, 3.85, 3.19, 5.12, and 5.22 for CDR-SB scores of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, and ≥4.5, respectively (all p < 0.05 except for CDR-SB score = 0.5). In addition, older age, lower education, lower cognitive performance, and a history of diabetes also increased conversion rates. Furthermore, reversions to NC were 12.5, 5.6, 0.9, and 0% for CDR-SB scores of 0.5, 1.0–2.0, 2.5–3.5 and ≥4.0, respectively (p < 0.001).ConclusionCDR-SB in predementia or very mild dementia (VMD) stages highly predicts progression to dementia or reversion to NC. Therefore, CDR-SB could be a good candidate for tracing the effectiveness of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions in populations without dementia.