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The impact of extreme climate events, especially prolonged drought, on ecosystem response, can influence the land-atmosphere interactions and modify local and regional weather and climate. To investigate the impact of vegetation dynamics on the simulation of energy, water, and carbon exchange at the land surface and streamflow, especially during drought conditions, we compared the performance of multiple versions of the Noah- multiparameterization (MP) land surface model (both Noah-MP LSM, version 3.6 and 4.0.1) with default configurations as well as various vegetation physics options, including the dynamic or input leaf area index (LAI) and the fractional vegetated area (FVEG). At the site level, simulated water and energy fluxes from each version were compared to eddy covariance (EC) flux tower measurements and remote sensing data from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at well-characterized natural grassland sites in Kansas from 2008 to 2018. The ability of each version to reproduce annual mean river flows was compared to gauged observations at United States Geological Survey (USGS) stations over 11 years (2008–2018). Model performance in replicating spatial patterns during extreme events was assessed by comparing simulated soil moisture (SM) percentiles over the state of Kansas to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). Results from these comparisons indicate that (a) even though there were differences in the latent heat (LE) components (i.e., transpiration, canopy evaporation, and soil evaporation), the total LE is mostly insensitive to variations in LAI across all model versions. This indicates that the incoming net radiation limits the total evaporation, as the presence of adequate soil moisture allows for higher soil evaporation when LAI limits transpiration; (b) regardless of the model version, the force of the precipitation largely dictates the accuracy of evapotranspiration (ET) simulation; (c) Overestimation of LE resulted in underestimation of streamflow, particularly over the land surface type dominated by a combination of grasses and cropland in the western and central part of the state; (d) all of the tested Noah-MP 4.0.1 vegetation physics produced spatial patterns of drought that more closely matched the USDM as compared to version 3.6. These findings have important relevance for applications of large-scale ecosystem-atmosphere feedbacks in water, carbon, and energy exchange.

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region's large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11 ± 0.45, 1.26 ± 0.11, and 0.85 ± 0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Toward qualifying hydrologic changes in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, this study explores the use of a hyper-resolution (1 km) land data assimilation (DA) framework developed within the NASA Land Information System using the Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP) forced by the meteorological boundary conditions from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 data. Two different sets of DA experiments are conducted: (1) the assimilation of a satellite-derived snow cover map (MOD10A1) and (2) the assimilation of the NASA MEaSUREs landscape freeze/thaw product from 2007 to 2008. The performance of the snow cover assimilation is evaluated via comparisons with available remote sensing-based snow water equivalent product and ground-based snow depth measurements. For example, in the comparison against ground-based snow depth measurements, the majority of the stations (13 of 14) show slightly improved goodness-of-fit statistics as a result of the snow DA, but only four are statistically significant. In addition, comparisons to the satellite-based land surface temperature products (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) show that freeze/thaw DA yields improvements (at certain grid cells) of up to 0.58 K in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 0.77 K in the absolute bias (relative to model-only simulations). In the comparison against three ground-based soil temperature measurements along the Himalayas, the bias and the RMSE in the 0–10 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 10 and 7%, respectively. The improvements in the top layer of soil estimates also propagate through the deeper soil layers, where the bias and the RMSE in the 10–40 cm soil temperature are reduced (on average) by 9 and 6%, respectively. However, no statistically significant skill differences are observed for the freeze/thaw DA system in the comparisons against ground-based surface temperature measurements at mid-to-low altitude. Therefore, the two proposed DA schemes show the potential of improving the predictability of snow mass, surface temperature, and soil temperature states across HMA, but more ground-based measurements are still required, especially at high-altitudes, in order to document a more statistically significant improvement as a result of the two DA schemes.

Flooding remains one of the most devastating and costly natural disasters. As flooding events grow in frequency and intensity, it has become increasingly important to improve flood monitoring, prediction, and early warning systems. Recent efforts to improve flash flood forecasts using deep learning have shown promise, yet commonly-used techniques such as long short term memory (LSTM) models are unable to extract potentially significant spatial relationships among input datasets. Here we propose a hybrid approach using a Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) network to predict stream stage heights using multi-modal hydrometeorological remote sensing and in-situ inputs. Results suggest the hybrid network can more effectively capture the specific spatiotemporal landscape dynamics of a flash flood-prone catchment relative to the current state-of-the-art, leading to a roughly 26% improvement in model error when predicting elevated stream conditions. Furthermore, the methodology shows promise for improving prediction accuracy and warning times for supporting local decision making.