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ObjectivesTo construct a novel model based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and serological biomarkers to predict the early recurrence (ER) of primary hepatocellular carcinoma within 2 years after hepatectomy.MethodsA total of 466 patients who underwent CEUS and curative resection between 2016.1.1 and 2019.1.1 were retrospectively recruited from one institution. The training and testing cohorts comprised 326 and 140 patients, respectively. Data on general characteristics, CEUS Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) parameters, and serological were collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to evaluate the independent prognostic factors for tumor recurrence, and the Contrast-enhanced Ultrasound Serological (CEUSS) model was constructed. Different models were compared using prediction error and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The CEUSS model's performances in ER prediction were assessed.ResultsThe baseline data of the training and testing cohorts were equal. LI-RADS category, α-fetoprotein level, tumor maximum diameter, total bilirubin level, starting time, iso-time, and enhancement pattern were independent hazards, and their hazards ratios were 1.417, 1.309, 1.133, 1.036, 0.883, 0.985, and 0.70, respectively. The AUCs of CEUSS, BCLC,TNM, and CNLC were 0.706, 0.641, 0.647, and 0.636, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.680, 0.583, 0.607, and 0.597, respectively, in the testing cohort. The prediction errors of CEUSS, BCLC, TNM, and CNLC were 0.202, 0.205, 0.205, and 0.200, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.204, 0.221, 0.219, and 0.211, respectively, in the testing cohort.ConclusionsThe CEUSS model can accurately and individually predict ER before surgery and may represent a new tool for individualized treatment.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a serious threat to the agricultural sector due to its highly contagious nature. Outbreaks of FMD can lead to substantial disruptions to livestock markets due to loss of production and access to international markets. In a previously FMD-free country, the use of vaccination to augment control of an FMD outbreak is increasingly being recognized as an alternative control strategy to direct slaughtering [stamping-out (SO)]. The choice of control strategy has implications on production, trade, and hence prices of the sector. Specific choice of eradication strategies depends on their costs and benefits. Economic impact assessments are often based on benefit–cost framework, which provide detailed information on the changes in profit for a farm or budget implications for a government (1). However, this framework cannot capture price effects caused by changes in production due to culling of animals; access to international markets; and consumers’ reaction. These three impacts combine to affect equilibrium within commodity markets (2). This paper provides assessment of sectoral level impacts of the eradication choices of FMD outbreaks, which are typically not available from benefit–cost framework, in the context of the UK. The FAPRI-UK model, a partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector, is utilized to investigate market outcomes of different control strategies (namely SO and vaccinate-to-die) in the case of FMD outbreaks. The outputs from the simulations of the EXODIS epidemiological model (number of animals culled/vaccinated and duration of outbreak) are used as inputs within the economic model to capture the overall price impact of the animal destruction, export ban, and consumers’ response.