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Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is essential for determining risk regions and guiding mitigation strategies. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been broadly utilized, but the uncertainty and interpretability of these models have not been well-studied. This study conducted a comparative analysis and uncertainty assessment of five ML algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LGB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—for LSM in Inje area, South Korea. We optimized these models using Bayesian optimization, a method that refines model performance through probabilistic model-based tuning of hyperparameters. The performance of these algorithms was evaluated using accuracy, Kappa score, and F1 score, with accuracy in detecting landslide-prone locations ranging from 0.916 to 0.947. Among them, the tree-based models (RF, LGB, XGB) showed competitive performance and outperformed the other models. Prediction uncertainty was quantified using bootstrapping and Monte Carlo simulation methods, with the latter providing a more consistent estimate across models. Further, the interpretability of ML predictions was analyzed through sensitivity analysis and SHAP values. We also expanded our investigation to include both the inclusion and exclusion of predictors, providing insights into each significant variable through a comprehensive sensitivity analysis. This paper provides insights into the predictive uncertainty and interpretability of ML algorithms for LSM, contributing to future research in South Korea and beyond.

Landslides are a major natural hazard that can significantly damage infrastructure and cause loss of life. In South Korea, the current landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) approach is mainly based on statistical techniques (logistic regression (LR) analysis). According to previous studies, this method has achieved an accuracy of approximately 75.2%. In this paper, we expand upon this traditional approach by comparing the performance of six machine learning (ML) algorithms for LSM in Inje County, South Korea. The study employed a combination of geographical data gathered from 2005 to 2019 to train and evaluate six algorithms, including LR, Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB). The effectiveness of these models was measured by various criteria, such as the percentage of correct classification (PCC) score, F1 score, and Kappa score. The results demonstrated that the PCC and F1 scores of the six models fell between [0.869–0.941] and [0.857–0.940], respectively. RF and XGB had the highest PCC and F1 scores of 0.939 and 0.941, respectively. This study indicates that ML can be a valuable technique for high-resolution LSM in South Korea instead of the current approach.

When raindrops collide with the topsoil surface, they cause soil detachment, which can be estimated by measuring the kinetic energy (KE) of the raindrops. Considering their direct measurements on terrestrial surfaces are challenging, empirical equations are commonly utilized for estimating the KE from rainfall intensity (Ir), which has a great influence on soil loss and can be easily obtained. However, establishing the optimal relationship between KE and Ir is difficult. In this study, we used a laser-based instrument (OTT Parsivel2 Optical disdrometer) to collect datasets in Sangju City (South Korea) between June 2020 and December 2021 to examine the characteristics of KE–Ir relationships. We derived two different expressions for KE–Ir: KE expenditure (KEexp; J m−2h−1) and KE content (KEcon; J m−2mm−1), using 37 rainfall events. Subsequently, the 37 rainfall events were categorized into three groups based on the magnitude of the mean rainfall intensity of each event. Overall, the KE values estimated through the equations derived based on 37 events were higher than those estimated by the equations derived based on the three rainfall event groups. Our findings should facilitate the development of more suitable physics-based soil erosion models at event scales.