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IntroductionMethods and tools evaluating treatment effect have been primarily developed for binary type of treatment. Yet, treatment is rarely binary outside the experimental setting, varies by dosage, frequency and time. Treatment is routinely adjusted, initiated or stopped when being administered over a period of time.MethodsBoth Gaussian Process (GP) regression and Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) have been used successfully for handling complex setting involving time-varying treatments that is either adaptive or non-adaptive. Here, we introduce an application programming interface (API) that implements both BART and GP for estimating averaged treatment effect (ATE) and conditional averaged treatment (CATE) for the two-stage time-varying treatment strategies.ResultsWe provide two real applications for evaluating comparative effectiveness of time-varying treatment strategies. The first example evaluates an early aggressive treatment strategies for caring children with newly diagnosed Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA). The second evaluates the persistent per-protocol treatment effectiveness in a large randomized pragmatic trial. The examples demonstrate the use of the API calling from R and Python, for handling both non-adaptive or adaptive treatments, with presences of partially observed or missing data issues. Summary tables and interactive figures of the results are downloadable.

The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) allows to experimentally assess individuals' risk-taking profiles in an ecologically sound setting. Many psychological and neuroscientific studies implemented the BART for its simplicity and intuitive nature. However, some issues in the design of the BART are systematically unconsidered in experimental paradigms, which may bias the estimation of individual risk-taking profiles. Since there are no methodological guidelines for implementing the BART, many variables (e.g., the maximum explosion probabilities, the rationale underlying stochastic events) vary inconstantly across experiments, possibly producing contrasting results. Moreover, the standard version of the BART is affected by the interaction of an individual-dependent, unavoidable source of stochasticity with a trial-dependent, more ambiguous source of stochasticity (i.e., the probability of the balloon to explode). This paper shows the most appropriate experimental choices for having the lowest error in the approximation of risk-taking profiles. Performance tests of a series of simulated data suggest that a more controlled, eventually non-stochastic version of the BART, better approximates original risk-taking profiles. Selecting optimal BART parameters is particularly important in neuroscience experiments to optimize the number of trials in a time window appropriate for acquiring neuroimaging data. We also provide helpful suggestions to researchers in many fields to allow the implementation of optimized risk-taking experiments using the BART. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) allows to experimentally assess individuals’ risk-taking profiles in an ecologically sound setting. Many psychological and neuroscientific studies implemented the BART for its simplicity and intuitive nature. However, some issues in the design of the BART are systematically unconsidered in experimental paradigms, which may bias the estimation of individual risk-taking profiles. Since there are no methodological guidelines for implementing the BART, many variables (e.g., the maximum explosion probabilities, the rationale underlying stochastic events) vary inconstantly across experiments, possibly producing contrasting results. Moreover, the standard version of the BART is affected by the interaction of an individual-dependent, unavoidable source of stochasticity with a trial-dependent, more ambiguous source of stochasticity (i.e., the probability of the balloon to explode). This paper shows the most appropriate experimental choices for having the lowest error in the approximation of risk-taking profiles. Performance tests of a series of simulated data suggest that a more controlled, eventually non-stochastic version of the BART, better approximates original risk-taking profiles. Selecting optimal BART parameters is particularly important in neuroscience experiments to optimize the number of trials in a time window appropriate for acquiring neuroimaging data. We also provide helpful suggestions to researchers in many fields to allow the implementation of optimized risk-taking experiments using the BART.

Epstein–Barr virus (EBV), which encodes >80 genes and nearly 50 non-coding RNAs, is a double-stranded DNA virus. EBV is associated with various types of lymphomas and lymphoproliferative disorders not only of B-cell but also T/NK-cell origin. However, the oncogenic mechanism remains poorly understood, including the EBV receptors expressed on T/NK cells, relationship of EBV with host genes, and epigenetic regulation of EBV and host genes. The roles of host and viral non-coding RNAs during tumorigenesis have been elucidated. EBV encodes at least 49 mature microRNAs (miRNAs), of which 44 are located in BamHI-A rightward transcripts (BARTs) region, and the remaining five are located in BamHI-H rightward fragment 1. BART miRNAs modulate cell differentiation, proliferation, apoptosis, and the cell cycle, and they are considered positive regulators of oncogenesis. We and others have recently reported that EBV-positive lymphomas frequently possess large deletions in BART miRNA clusters, suggesting that some viral miRNAs have suppressive effects on oncogenesis, and that deletion of these miRNAs may aid lymphoma formation.

Epstein–Barr virus (EBV), which encodes >80 genes and nearly 50 non-coding RNAs, is a double-stranded DNA virus. EBV is associated with various types of lymphomas and lymphoproliferative disorders not only of B-cell but also T/NK-cell origin. However, the oncogenic mechanism remains poorly understood, including the EBV receptors expressed on T/NK cells, relationship of EBV with host genes, and epigenetic regulation of EBV and host genes. The roles of host and viral non-coding RNAs during tumorigenesis have been elucidated. EBV encodes at least 49 mature microRNAs (miRNAs), of which 44 are located in Bam HI-A rightward transcripts (BARTs) region, and the remaining five are located in Bam HI-H rightward fragment 1. BART miRNAs modulate cell differentiation, proliferation, apoptosis, and the cell cycle, and they are considered positive regulators of oncogenesis. We and others have recently reported that EBV-positive lymphomas frequently possess large deletions in BART miRNA clusters, suggesting that some viral miRNAs have suppressive effects on oncogenesis, and that deletion of these miRNAs may aid lymphoma formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maladaptive risk taking can have severe individual and societal consequences; thus, individual differences are prominent targets for intervention and prevention. Although brain activation has been shown to be associated with individual differences in risk taking, the directionality of the reported brain–behavior associations is less clear. Here, we argue that one aspect contributing to the mixed results is the low convergence between risk-taking measures, especially between the behavioral tasks used to elicit neural functional markers. To address this question, we analyzed within-participant neuroimaging data for two widely used risk-taking tasks collected from the imaging subsample of the Basel–Berlin Risk Study (N = 116 young human adults). Focusing on core brain regions implicated in risk taking (nucleus accumbens, anterior insula, and anterior cingulate cortex), for the two tasks, we examined group-level activation for risky versus safe choices, as well as associations between local functional markers and various risk-related outcomes, including psychometrically derived risk preference factors. While we observed common group-level activation in the two tasks (notably increased nucleus accumbens activation), individual differences analyses support the idea that the presence and directionality of associations between brain activation and risk taking varies as a function of the risk-taking measures used to capture individual differences. Our results have methodological implications for the use of brain markers for intervention or prevention.

Maladaptive risk taking can have severe individual and societal consequences; thus, individual differences are prominent targets for intervention and prevention. Although brain activation has been shown to be associated with individual differences in risk taking, the directionality of the reported brain–behavior associations is less clear. Here, we argue that one aspect contributing to the mixed results is the low convergence between risk-taking measures, especially between the behavioral tasks used to elicit neural functional markers. To address this question, we analyzed within-participant neuroimaging data for two widely used risk-taking tasks collected from the imaging subsample of the Basel–Berlin Risk Study (N = 116 young human adults). Focusing on core brain regions implicated in risk taking (nucleus accumbens, anterior insula, and anterior cingulate cortex), for the two tasks, we examined group-level activation for risky versus safe choices, as well as associations between local functional markers and various risk-related outcomes, including psychometrically derived risk preference factors. While we observed common group-level activation in the two tasks (notably increased nucleus accumbens activation), individual differences analyses support the idea that the presence and directionality of associations between brain activation and risk taking varies as a function of the risk-taking measures used to capture individual differences. Our results have methodological implications for the use of brain markers for intervention or prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) establishes lifelong latent infection in humans and is associated with several lymphoid and epithelial cancers. In nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), EBV expresses few viral proteins but elevated levels of Bam-HI A rightward transcripts (BARTs) RNA, which includes viral microRNAs and long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs). BART lncRNAs localize within the nucleus of EBV-infected cells and knockdown of BART lncRNAs significantly affects the expression of genes associated with cell adhesion, oxidoreductase activity, inflammation, and immunity. Notably, downregulation of IKAROS family zinc finger 3 (IKZF3/Aiolos), which plays a role in lymphocyte development and cell attachment, occurred in NPC C666-1 cells following BART lncRNA-knockdown. Since Aiolos expression is normally restricted to lymphoid cells and rarely observed in epithelial cells, induction of Aiolos by BART lncRNA was confirmed by expressing the major BART lncRNA isoform, RPMS1, in EBV-positive and -negative cells. BART lncRNA associated with the CBP/p300 complex and RNA polymerase II (Pol II) in the nucleus, suggesting that BART lncRNAs may mediate epigenetic regulation of gene expression through interaction with the chromatin remodeling machinery. This contention is further supported by evidence that BART lncRNA appears to stall Pol II at the promoter region and may regulate IFNB1 and CXCL8 expression by inhibiting transcription by Pol II in NPC. We hypothesize that EBV BART lncRNA expression modulates host gene expression and maintains EBV latency by interfering with histone methylation and acetylation processes. Aberrant expression of affected host genes mediated by BART lncRNA may lead to immune evasion, progression, and metastasis of NPC.

Impulsivity and risk-taking are known to have an important impact on problematic substance use and criminal behavior. This study examined the predictive value of baseline self-report and behavioral impulsivity and risk-taking measures [Delay Discounting Task (DDT), Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) and Behavioral Inhibition, Behavioral Activation Scale (BIS/BAS)] in 12-months follow-up substance use outcomes (e.g., use of alcohol, cannabis and other substances) and criminal recidivism (yes/no). Participants were 213 male offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD) under probation supervision. Bivariate regression analyses showed that BIS and BAS levels were associated (respectively) with the use of alcohol and cannabis. Multiple regression analysis showed that BIS was negatively associated with alcohol use at follow-up, whereas cannabis use at baseline and BAS predicted cannabis use at follow-up. At a trend level, interactions between delay discounting and risk-taking, and interactions between baseline cannabis use and BAS and BART predicted cannabis use at follow-up. Other substance use at follow-up was solely predicted by baseline other substance use. Overall, the findings provide marginal support for the predictive utility of impulsivity and risk-taking in accounting for variability in substance use among offenders with a SUD. This may be partly explained by the fact that only a limited number of psychological factors was assessed in this study. The studied population consists of a severe group, in which relapse into substance use or criminal behavior likely is related to complex, interacting biopsychosocial factors, of which impulsivity measures play a relatively small part.

Many studies claim to measure decision-making under risk by employing the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, a self-report measure, or the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), a behavioural task. However, these tasks do not measure decision-making under risk but decision-making under uncertainty, a related but distinct concept. The present commentary discusses both the theoretical and empirical basis of the distinction between uncertainty and risk from the viewpoint of several scientific disciplines and reports how many studies wrongfully employ the DOSPERT scale and BART as risk-taking measures. Importantly, we call for proper distinguishing between (tasks measuring) decision-making under uncertainty and decision-making under risk in psychology, and related fields. We believe this is vital as research has shown that people’s attitudes, behaviour, and brain activity differ between both concepts, indicating that confusing the concepts may lead researchers to erroneous conclusions.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) establishes lifelong latent infection in humans and is associated with several lymphoid and epithelial cancers. In nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), EBV expresses few viral proteins but elevated levels of Bam- HI A rightward transcripts (BARTs) RNA, which includes viral microRNAs and long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs). BART lncRNAs localize within the nucleus of EBV-infected cells and knockdown of BART lncRNAs significantly affects the expression of genes associated with cell adhesion, oxidoreductase activity, inflammation, and immunity. Notably, downregulation of IKAROS family zinc finger 3 (IKZF3/ Aiolos), which plays a role in lymphocyte development and cell attachment, occurred in NPC C666-1 cells following BART lncRNA-knockdown. Since Aiolos expression is normally restricted to lymphoid cells and rarely observed in epithelial cells, induction of Aiolos by BART lncRNA was confirmed by expressing the major BART lncRNA isoform, RPMS1 , in EBV-positive and -negative cells. BART lncRNA associated with the CBP/p300 complex and RNA polymerase II (Pol II) in the nucleus, suggesting that BART lncRNAs may mediate epigenetic regulation of gene expression through interaction with the chromatin remodeling machinery. This contention is further supported by evidence that BART lncRNA appears to stall Pol II at the promoter region and may regulate IFNB1 and CXCL8 expression by inhibiting transcription by Pol II in NPC. We hypothesize that EBV BART lncRNA expression modulates host gene expression and maintains EBV latency by interfering with histone methylation and acetylation processes. Aberrant expression of affected host genes mediated by BART lncRNA may lead to immune evasion, progression, and metastasis of NPC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impulsivity and risk-taking are known to have an important impact on problematic substance use and criminal behavior. This study examined the predictive value of baseline self-report and behavioral impulsivity and risk-taking measures [Delay Discounting Task (DDT), Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) and Behavioral Inhibition, Behavioral Activation Scale (BIS/BAS)] in 12-months follow-up substance use outcomes (e.g., use of alcohol, cannabis and other substances) and criminal recidivism (yes/no). Participants were 213 male offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD) under probation supervision. Bivariate regression analyses showed that BIS and BAS levels were associated (respectively) with the use of alcohol and cannabis. Multiple regression analysis showed that BIS was negatively associated with alcohol use at follow-up, whereas cannabis use at baseline and BAS predicted cannabis use at follow-up. At a trend level, interactions between delay discounting and risk-taking, and interactions between baseline cannabis use and BAS and BART predicted cannabis use at follow-up. Other substance use at follow-up was solely predicted by baseline other substance use. Overall, the findings provide marginal support for the predictive utility of impulsivity and risk-taking in accounting for variability in substance use among offenders with a SUD. This may be partly explained by the fact that only a limited number of psychological factors was assessed in this study. The studied population consists of a severe group, in which relapse into substance use or criminal behavior likely is related to complex, interacting biopsychosocial factors, of which impulsivity measures play a relatively small part. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies claim to measure decision-making under risk by employing the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, a self-report measure, or the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), a behavioural task. However, these tasks do not measure decision-making under risk but decision-making under uncertainty, a related but distinct concept. The present commentary discusses both the theoretical and empirical basis of the distinction between uncertainty and risk from the viewpoint of several scientific disciplines and reports how many studies wrongfully employ the DOSPERT scale and BART as risk-taking measures. Importantly, we call for proper distinguishing between (tasks measuring) decision-making under uncertainty and decision-making under risk in psychology, and related fields. We believe this is vital as research has shown that people's attitudes, behaviour, and brain activity differ between both concepts, indicating that confusing the concepts may lead researchers to erroneous conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the dual-process theoretical perspective adopted in the presented research, the efficiency of deliberative processes in decision making declines with age, but experiential processes are relatively well-preserved. The age-related differences in deliberative and experiential processes in risky decision-making were examined in this research by applying the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). We analyzed the influence of age on risk acceptance and decision-making performance in two age groups of female participants (younger adults, n = 81; older adults, n = 76), with additional experimental manipulation of initial risk perception. We predicted and confirmed that aging significantly worsens performance on the behavioral BART measures due to age-related decline in deliberative processes. Older participants were found to exhibit significantly higher risk aversion and lower BART performance, and the effect of age was mediated by cognitive (processing speed) and motivational (need for cognitive closure) mechanisms. Moreover, older adults adapt to the initial failure (vs. success) similarly as younger adults due to preserved efficiency of experiential processes. These results suggest future directions for minimizing negative effects of aging in risky decision-making and indicate compensatory processes, which are preserved during aging.

Greater impulse and risk-taking and reduced decision-making ability were reported as the main behavioral impairments in individuals with internet gaming disorder (IGD), which has become a serious mental health issue worldwide. However, it is not clear to date how the risk level modulates brain activity during the decision-making process in IGD individuals. In this study, 23 adolescents with IGD and 24 healthy controls (HCs) without IGD were recruited, and the balloon analog risk task (BART) was used in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment to evaluate the modulation of the risk level (the probability of balloon explosion) on brain activity during risky decision making in IGD adolescents. Reduced modulation of the risk level on the activation of the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active BART was found in IGD group compared to the HCs. In the IGD group, there was a significant negative correlation between the risk-related DLPFC activation during the active BART and the Barratt impulsivity scale (BIS-11) scores, which were significantly higher in IGD group compared with the HCs. Our study demonstrated that, as a critical decision-making-related brain region, the right DLPFC is less sensitive to risk in IGD adolescents compared with the HCs, which may contribute to the higher impulsivity level in IGD adolescents.

According to the dual-process theoretical perspective adopted in the presented research, the efficiency of deliberative processes in decision making declines with age, but experiential processes are relatively well-preserved. The age-related differences in deliberative and experiential processes in risky decision-making were examined in this research by applying the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART). We analyzed the influence of age on risk acceptance and decision-making performance in two age groups of female participants (younger adults, n = 81; older adults, n = 76), with additional experimental manipulation of initial risk perception. We predicted and confirmed that aging significantly worsens performance on the behavioral BART measures due to age-related decline in deliberative processes. Older participants were found to exhibit significantly higher risk aversion and lower BART performance, and the effect of age was mediated by cognitive (processing speed) and motivational (need for cognitive closure) mechanisms. Moreover, older adults adapt to the initial failure (vs. success) similarly, as younger adults due to preserved efficiency of experiential processes. These results suggest future directions for minimizing negative effects of aging in risky decision-making and indicate compensatory processes, which are preserved during aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Space is characterized by risk and uncertainty. As humans play an important role in long-duration space missions, the ability to make risky decisions effectively is important for astronauts who spend extended time periods in space. The present study used the Balloon Analog Risk Task to conduct both behavioral and fMRI experiments to evaluate the effects of simulated microgravity on individuals’ risk-taking behavior and the neural basis of the effect. The results showed that participants’ risk-taking behavior was not affected by bed rest. However, we found that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) showed less deactivation after bed rest and that the VMPFC activation in the active choice condition showed no significant difference between the win outcome and the loss outcome after bed rest, although its activation was significantly greater in the win outcome than in the loss outcome before bed rest. These results suggested that the participants showed a decreased level of value calculation after the bed rest. Our findings can contribute to a better understanding of the effect of microgravity on individual higher-level cognitive functioning.

Space is characterized by risk and uncertainty. As humans play an important role in long-duration space missions, the ability to make risky decisions effectively is important for astronauts who spend extended time periods in space. The present study used the Balloon Analog Risk Task to conduct both behavioral and fMRI experiments to evaluate the effects of simulated microgravity on individuals' risk-taking behavior and the neural basis of the effect. The results showed that participants' risk-taking behavior was not affected by bed rest. However, we found that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) showed less deactivation after bed rest and that the VMPFC activation in the active choice condition showed no significant difference between the win outcome and the loss outcome after bed rest, although its activation was significantly greater in the win outcome than in the loss outcome before bed rest. These results suggested that the participants showed a decreased level of value calculation after the bed rest. Our findings can contribute to a better understanding of the effect of microgravity on individual higher-level cognitive functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing age is associated with subtle but meaningful changes in decision-making. It is unknown, however, to what degree these psychological changes are reflective of age-related changes in decision quality. Here, we investigated the effect of age on latent cognitive processes associated with risky decision-making on the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). In the BART, participants repetitively inflate a balloon in order to increase potential reward. At any point, participants can decide to cash out to harvest the reward, or they can continue, risking a balloon pop that erases all earnings. We found that among seniors, increasing age was associated with greater reward-related risk taking when the balloon has a higher probability of popping (i.e., a high risk condition). Cognitive modeling results from hierarchical Bayesian estimation suggested that performance differences were due to increased reward sensitivity in high risk conditions in seniors.

Functional imaging studies examining the neural correlates of risk have mainly relied on paradigms involving exposure to simple chance gambles and an economic definition of risk as variance in the probability distribution over possible outcomes. However, there is little evidence that choices made during gambling tasks predict naturalistic risk-taking behaviors such as drug use, extreme sports, or even equity investing. To better understand the neural basis of naturalistic risk-taking, we scanned participants using fMRI while they completed the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), an experimental measure that includes an active decision/choice component and that has been found to correlate with a number of naturalistic risk taking behaviors. In the task, as in many naturalistic settings, escalating risk-taking occurs under uncertainty and might be experienced either as the accumulation of greater potential rewards, or as exposure to increasing possible losses (and decreasing expected value). We found that areas previously linked to risk and risk-taking (bilateral anterior insula, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC)) were activated as participants continued to inflate balloons. Interestingly, we found that ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) activity decreased as participants further expanded balloons. In light of previous findings implicating the vmPFC in value calculation, this result suggests that escalating risk-taking in the task might be perceived as exposure to increasing possible losses (and decreasing expected value) rather than the increasing potential total reward relative to the starting point of the trial. A better understanding of how neural activity changes with risk-taking behavior in the task offers insight into the potential neural mechanisms driving naturalistic risk-taking.

The process of evaluating risks and benefits involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). It has been proposed that in conflict and reward situations, theta-band (4–8 Hz) oscillatory activity in the frontal cortex may reflect an electrophysiological mechanism for coordinating neural networks monitoring behavior, as well as facilitating task-specific adaptive changes. The goal of the present study was to investigate the hypothesis that theta-band oscillatory balance between right and left frontal and prefrontal regions, with a predominance role to the right hemisphere, is crucial for regulatory control during decision-making under risk. In order to explore this hypothesis, we used transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation (tACS), a novel technique that provides the opportunity to explore the functional role of neuronal oscillatory activities and to establish a causal link between specific oscillations and functional lateralization in risky decision-making situations. For this aim, healthy participants were randomly allocated to one of three stimulation groups (LH stimulation / RH stimulation / Sham stimulation), with active AC stimulation delivered in a frequency-dependent manner (at 6.5 Hz; 1mA peak to-peak). During the AC stimulation, participants performed the Balloon Analog Risk Task. This experiment revealed that participants receiving LH stimulation displayed riskier decision-making style compared to sham and RH stimulation groups. However, there was no difference in decision-making behaviors between sham and RH stimulation groups. The current study extends the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for adaptive decision-making in the context of risk-taking and emphasis the role of theta-band oscillatory activity during risky decision-making situations.

Despite evidence supporting a relationship between impulsivity and naturalistic risk-taking, the relationship of impulsivity with laboratory-based measures of risky decision-making remains unclear. One factor contributing to this gap in our understanding is the degree to which different risky decision-making tasks vary in their details. We conducted an fMRI investigation of the Angling Risk Task (ART), which is an improved behavioral measure of risky decision-making. In order to examine whether the observed pattern of neural activation was specific to the ART or generalizable, we also examined correlates of the Balloon Analog Risk Taking (BART) task in the same sample of 23 healthy adults. Exploratory analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between neural activation, performance, impulsivity and self-reported risk-taking. While activation in a valuation network was associated with reward tracking during the ART but not the BART, increased fronto-cingulate activation was seen during risky choice trials in the BART as compared to the ART. Thus, neural activation during risky decision-making trials differed between the two tasks, and this observation was likely driven by differences in task parameters, namely the absence vs. presence of ambiguity and/or stationary vs. increasing probability of loss on the ART and BART, respectively. Exploratory association analyses suggest that sensitivity of neural response to the magnitude of potential reward during the ART was associated with a suboptimal performance strategy, higher scores on a scale of dysfunctional impulsivity (DI) and a greater likelihood of engaging in risky behaviors, while this pattern was not seen for the BART. Our results suggest that the ART is decomposable and associated with distinct patterns of neural activation; this represents a preliminary step toward characterizing a behavioral measure of risky decision-making that may support a better understanding of naturalistic risk-taking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing age is associated with subtle but meaningful changes in decision-making. It is unknown, however, to what degree these psychological changes are reflective of age-related changes in decision quality. Here, we investigated the effect of age on latent cognitive processes associated with risky decision-making on the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART). In the BART, participants repetitively inflate a balloon in order to increase potential reward. At any point, participants can decide to cash-out to harvest the reward, or they can continue, risking a balloon pop that erases all earnings.We found that among seniors, increasing age was associated with greater reward-related risk taking when the balloon has a higher probability of popping (i.e., a "high risk" condition). Cognitive model-ing results from hierarchical Bayesian estimation suggested that performance differences were due to increased reward sensitivity in high risk conditions in seniors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional imaging studies examining the neural correlates of risk have mainly relied on paradigms involving exposure to simple chance gambles and an economic definition of risk as variance in the probability distribution over possible outcomes. However, there is little evidence that choices made during gambling tasks predict naturalistic risk-taking behaviors such as drug use, extreme sports, or even equity investing. To better understand the neural basis of naturalistic risk-taking, we scanned participants using fMRI while they completed the Balloon Analog Risk Task, an experimental measure that includes an active decision/choice component and that has been found to correlate with a number of naturalistic risk-taking behaviors. In the task, as in many naturalistic settings, escalating risk-taking occurs under uncertainty and might be experienced either as the accumulation of greater potential rewards, or as exposure to increasing possible losses (and decreasing expected value).We found that areas previously linked to risk and risk-taking (bilateral anterior insula, anterior cingulate cortex, and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) were activated as participants continued to inflate balloons. Interestingly, we found that ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) activity decreased as participants further expanded balloons. In light of previous findings implicating the vmPFC in value calculation, this result suggests that escalating risk-taking in the task might be perceived as exposure to increasing possible losses (and decreasing expected value) rather than the increasing potential total reward relative to the starting point of the trial. A better understanding of how neural activity changes with risk-taking behavior in the task offers insight into the potential neural mechanisms driving naturalistic risk-taking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]