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Additional file 3: Figure S2. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and risk table of the study population before restricting data to 21 days.

Additional file 6: Figure S4. Scaled Schoenfeld residuals plot of reduced consciousness against the transformed time. Solid black line denotes the smoothing spline fit to residuals of the coefficient for variable reduced consciousness (beta(t)), with the dashed lines indicating a ±2 standard error band. The solid black line systematic departures from the horizontal green line, suggesting non-proportional hazards (i.e., time-dependent effect) of reduced consciousness. Red line is the estimated time-dependent coefficient of reduced consciousness (β(t)= 1.37+ 0.14*t) for the Reduced Mortality Model.

Additional file 3: Figure S2. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and risk table of the study population before restricting data to 21 days.

Additional file 1: Table S1. Definitions of daily clinical signs.

Additional file 7: Figure S5. Performance of model-based scores evaluated on selected landmarking days over time. Time-dependent AUC of using risk scores (calculated from Predictive Model 2: Daily Score) assessed on a specific day (admission, day 2, 5, 7, 10) to predict survival outcome for the subsequent days (including the score day) up to 15 days since admission. AUC=0.5 implies performance is no better than random chance.

Additional file 5: Figure S3. Dynamics in the individual clinical signs and survival outcome (conditional density plots).

Additional file 2: Figure S1. Illustration C-index computation for time-static and time-updated predictions based on survival status of hypothetical subjects. (a) Concordance of Time-static Prediction. Illustration of concordance computation in the scenario where risk assessment is made once at a single time point (e.g., admission) for ultimate survival outcome prediction. (b) Concordance of Time-updated Prediction. Illustration of concordance computation in the scenario where risk assessment is repeated every day and the updated risk score is used for survival prediction. Survival information pertaining to the five hypothetical subjects is colored in blue; filled triangles denote occurrence of death (event), empty triangles denote occurrence of discharge (censoring), empty circles denote subjects remaining at risk at a given time point. Solid black arrows indicate valid pairs of risk score comparisons contributing to concordance computation.

Additional file 9: Figure S6. Performance of day-specific risk scores of different predictive models in predicting survival outcome in the subsequent 2 days. AUC of risk scores at different score days (admission, day 1, day 2, …, day 15) calculated from the three predictive models in discriminating deaths for the subsequent 2 days (including the score day). AUC=0.5 implies performance is no better than random chance.

Additional file 4: Table S2. Missing data on daily clinical warning signs.

Additional file 7: Figure S5. Performance of model-based scores evaluated on selected landmarking days over time. Time-dependent AUC of using risk scores (calculated from Predictive Model 2: Daily Score) assessed on a specific day (admission, day 2, 5, 7, 10) to predict survival outcome for the subsequent days (including the score day) up to 15 days since admission. AUC=0.5 implies performance is no better than random chance.

Additional file 4: Table S2. Missing data on daily clinical warning signs.

Additional file 5: Figure S3. Dynamics in the individual clinical signs and survival outcome (conditional density plots).

Additional file 8: Table S3. Proportion of children with changes in number of CWS between two consecutive hospitalization days.

Additional file 10: Table S4. Patient characteristics at admission, by country.

Additional file 6: Figure S4. Scaled Schoenfeld residuals plot of reduced consciousness against the transformed time. Solid black line denotes the smoothing spline fit to residuals of the coefficient for variable reduced consciousness (beta(t)), with the dashed lines indicating a ±2 standard error band. The solid black line systematic departures from the horizontal green line, suggesting non-proportional hazards (i.e., time-dependent effect) of reduced consciousness. Red line is the estimated time-dependent coefficient of reduced consciousness (β(t)= 1.37+ 0.14*t) for the Reduced Mortality Model.

Additional file 9: Figure S6. Performance of day-specific risk scores of different predictive models in predicting survival outcome in the subsequent 2 days. AUC of risk scores at different score days (admission, day 1, day 2, …, day 15) calculated from the three predictive models in discriminating deaths for the subsequent 2 days (including the score day). AUC=0.5 implies performance is no better than random chance.

Additional file 8: Table S3. Proportion of children with changes in number of CWS between two consecutive hospitalization days.