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Existing prediction algorithms for the identification of patients with heart failure (HF) at high risk of readmission or death after hospital discharge are only modestly effective. We sought to validate a recently developed predictive model of 30-day readmission or death in HF using an Australia-wide sample of patients. This study used data from 1,046 patients with HF at teaching hospitals in 5 Australian capital cities to validate a predictive model of 30-day readmission or death in HF. Besides standard clinical and administrative data, we collected data on individual sociodemographic and socioeconomic status, mental health (Patient Health Questionnaire [PHQ]-9 and Generalized Anxiety Disorder [GAD]-7 scale score), cognitive function (Montreal Cognitive Assessment [MoCA] score), and 2-dimensional echocardiograms. The original sample used to develop the predictive model and the validation sample had similar proportions of patients with an adverse event within 30 days (30% vs 29%, p = 0.35) and 90 days (52% vs 49%, p = 0.36). Applying the predicted risk score to the validation sample provided very good discriminatory power (C-statistic = 0.77) in the prediction of 30-day readmission or death. This discrimination was greater for predicting 30-day death (C-statistic = 0.85) than for predicting 30-day readmission (C-statistic = 0.73). There was a small difference in the performance of the predictive model among patients with either a left ventricular ejection fraction of <40% or a left ventricular ejection fraction of ≥40%, but an attenuation in discrimination when used to predict longer-term adverse outcomes. In conclusion, our findings confirm the generalizability of the predictive model that may be a powerful tool for targeting high-risk patients with HF for intensive management., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Myocardial deformation parameters are sensitive markers of global left ventricular (LV) systolic function, but their interaction with LV geometry is unknown. We sought to investigate the effect of LV geometry on myocardial deformation and its interaction with coronary artery disease (CAD). A total of 126 patients with normal resting LV function who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography subsequently underwent coronary angiography within 6 months. Longitudinal myocardial deformation was calculated using tissue Doppler echocardiography. The extent of CAD was identified by quantitative coronary angiography. Patients with an increased relative wall thickness had a significantly lower peak strain rate (SR) and a smaller change in SR with stress, with no differences in the at rest values. Those with CAD, had significantly lower peak SR values and change in SR with no difference in resting measures. A linear regression model showed that the relative wall thickness and extent of CAD were the strongest predictors of change in SR. An increasing extent of CAD caused a steady degradation in the peak SR and change in peak SR. Markers of longitudinal myocardial deformation at peak stress reflect both myocardial and interstitial properties. In conclusion, a major determinant of subendocardial function is the wall thickness, as measured by the relative wall thickness, and not LV hypertrophy.

Different patterns of abnormal left ventricular (LV) geometry are associated with variations in prognosis, but the mechanisms of these effects remain undefined. We investigated the association of myocardial deformation with these findings and their evolution. Two-dimensional echocardiography was performed in 85 hypertensive patients referred for serial evaluation (age 58 +/- 13 years, 48% male). LV mass index and regional wall thickness were used to assign patients into groups with normal geometry, concentric remodeling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy. Septal strain and strain rate were measured using velocity vector imaging. The evolution of morphological changes was followed over 2.7 +/- 1.3 years. Analysis of LV geometry revealed normal geometry in 13 patients (15%), concentric remodeling in 20 (24%), concentric hypertrophy in 42 (49%), and eccentric hypertrophy in 10 (12%). Overall strain was -13.6 +/- 4.5%, and strain rate was -0.65 +/- 0.24/second. Strain was significantly lower in patients with concentric remodeling (-12.8 +/- 4.2%) or concentric hypertrophy (-12.5 +/- 4.1%) compared with patients with normal geometry (-17.5 +/- 5.5%, p < or =0.05), and these associations were independent of blood pressure. Strain rate was also significantly reduced in patients with concentric hypertrophy (p < or =0.01). There were no significant differences in baseline strain, wall stress, blood pressure, or age between patients who changed LV geometric class and those who did not. In conclusion, baseline myocardial tissue deformation, but not evolution, is associated with LV geometry in treated hypertensive patients.

Echocardiography is frequently used for sequential evaluation of left ventricular (LV) function, although the reproducibility of such conventional measurements as LV ejection fraction (EF) have been questioned. The utility of such newer measurements as tissue Doppler imaging and left atrial (LA) size in serial clinical testing are undefined. The magnitude and clinical relevance of changes in conventional and new measurements of LV function were investigated and compared in 346 consecutive patients undergoing sequential echocardiography. Change in LA area, LVEF, tissue E velocity (Em), and transmitral E to Em ratio (E/Em) were compared over 304 +/- 239 days. Changes within and between parameters (after mean correction to make measurements comparable) were assessed in groups designated as stable (n = 144) or unstable (n = 202) according to clinical progress. A single observer remeasured these parameters in stable patients individually and with paired studies side by side. Significant variability was seen in all measurements, with change in LVEF the only parameter differing between stable and unstable groups (6.4 +/- 8.9% vs 9.4 +/- 5.4%; p <0.001). Tissue Em and E/Em ratio were more variable than LA area or LVEF. In stable patients, LVEF changed the least and E/Em changed the most over time (p <0.05). With a single blinded observer, Em had improved reproducibility (1.5 +/- 1.9 vs 2.3 +/- 2.6 cm/s; p <0.001), as did visual EF. In conclusion, variability in all measurements was high irrespective of clinical status. Newer measurements were no better than LVEF in detecting changes in clinical status. Sequential LV assessment should be interpreted with caution, and more robust measurements are needed.