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Implementation of prevention policies has often been impeded or delayed due to the lack of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with hard clinical outcomes (eg, incident disease, mortality). Despite the prominent role of RCTs in health care, it may not always be feasible to conduct RCTs of public health interventions with hard outcomes due to logistical and ethical considerations. RCTs may also lack external validity and have limited generalizability. Currently, there is insufficient guidance for policymakers charged with establishing evidence-based policy to determine whether an RCT with hard outcomes is needed before policy recommendations. In this context, the purpose of this article is to assess, in a case study, the feasibility of conducting an RCT of the oft-cited issue of sodium reduction on cardiovascular outcomes and then propose a framework for decision-making, which includes an assessment of the feasibility of conducting an RCT with hard clinical outcomes when such trials are unavailable. We designed and assessed the feasibility of potential individual- and cluster-randomized trials of sodium reduction on cardiovascular outcomes. Based on our assumptions, a trial using any of the designs considered would require tens of thousands of participants and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, which is prohibitively expensive. Our estimates may be conservative given several key challenges, such as the unknown costs of sustaining a long-term difference in sodium intake, the effect of differential cotreatment with antihypertensive medications, and long lag time to clinical outcomes. Thus, it would be extraordinarily difficult to conduct such a trial, and despite the high costs, would still be at substantial risk for a spuriously null result. A robust framework, such as the one we developed, should be used to guide policymakers when establishing evidence-based public health interventions in the absence of trials with hard clinical outcomes.

Background Coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) may occur after Kawasaki disease (KD) and lead to important morbidity and mortality. As CAA in patients with KD are rare and heterogeneous lesions, prognostication and risk stratification are difficult. We sought to derive the cumulative risk and associated factors for cardiovascular complications in patients with CAAs after KD. Methods and Results A 34-institution international registry of 1651 patients with KD who had CAAs (maximum CAA Z score ≥2.5) was used. Time-to-event analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard models for risk factor analysis. In patients with CAA Z scores ≥10, the cumulative incidence of luminal narrowing (>50% of lumen diameter), coronary artery thrombosis, and composite major adverse cardiovascular complications at 10 years was 20±3%, 18±2%, and 14±2%, respectively. No complications were observed in patients with a CAA Z score

BackgroundBlood pressure (BP) and cholesterol are major modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but effects of exposures during young adulthood on later life CVD risk have not been well quantified.ObjectiveThe authors sought to evaluate the independent associations between young adult exposures to risk factors and later life CVD risk, accounting for later life exposures.MethodsThe authors pooled data from 6 U.S. cohorts with observations spanning the life course from young adulthood to later life, and imputed risk factor trajectories for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterols, systolic and diastolic BP starting from age 18 years for every participant. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during young (age 18 to 39 years) and later adulthood (age ≥40 years) were calculated and linked to subsequent risks of coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), or stroke.ResultsA total of 36,030 participants were included. During a median follow-up of 17 years, there were 4,570 CHD, 5,119 HF, and 2,862 stroke events. When young and later adult risk factors were considered jointly in the model, young adult LDL ≥100 mg/dl (compared with

Background Accurate prediction of coronary artery aneurysms ( CAAs ) in patients with Kawasaki disease remains challenging in North American cohorts. We sought to develop and validate a risk model for CAA prediction. Methods and Results A binary outcome of CAA was defined as left anterior descending or right coronary artery Z score ≥2.5 at 2 to 8 weeks after fever onset in a development cohort (n=903) and a validation cohort (n=185) of patients with Kawasaki disease. Associations of baseline clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables with later CAA were assessed in the development cohort using logistic regression. Discrimination (c statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) of the final model were evaluated. A practical risk score assigning points to each variable in the final model was created based on model coefficients from the development cohort. Predictors of CAAs at 2 to 8 weeks were baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0, age 40-fold greater in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 44.0; 95% CI, 10.8-180 [ P

BackgroundCoronary artery aneurysms (CAA) are a serious complication of Kawasaki disease. Treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) within 10 days of fever onset reduces the risk of CAA from 25% to

ImportanceAmerican Heart Association guidelines recommend echocardiography in Kawasaki disease at baseline, 1 to 2 weeks, and 4 to 6 weeks after treatment to detect coronary artery abnormalities. However, these examinations are expensive and may require sedation in young children, which is burdensome and carries some risk.ObjectiveTo assess the benefit of additional echocardiographic imaging at 6 weeks in patients with uncomplicated Kawasaki disease who had previously normal coronary arteries.Design, setting, and participantsThis is a retrospective review of patients with Kawasaki disease who were cared for between 1995 and 2014 in 2 academic pediatric referral practices Eligibility criteria included receiving intravenous immunoglobulin treatment for acute Kawasaki disease at a center; the absence of significant congenital heart disease; available echocardiographic measurements of both the right and left anterior descending coronary arteries at 10 days or less after diagnosis (baseline), 2 (±1) weeks, and 6 (±3) weeks of illness; and normal coronary arteries at baseline and 2 weeks, defined as maximum coronary artery z scores less than 2.0 and no distal aneurysms. Data analysis was completed from March 2015 to November 2015.Main outcomes and measuresThe number of patients with right coronary artery or left anterior descending coronary artery z scores of 2.0 or more at 6 weeks.ResultsThe median age of the 464 included patients was 3.3 years (interquartile range, 1.8-5.4 years); 264 (56.9%) were male, 351 of 414 for whom data were available (84.8%) had complete Kawasaki disease, and 66 (14.2%) received additional intravenous immunoglobulin treatment. At 6 weeks of illness, 456 patients (98.3%) who had had normal coronary artery z scores at baseline and 2 weeks continued to have normal z scores. Of the remaining 8 patients (1.7%), the maximum z score within 6 weeks was 2.0 to 2.4 in 5 patients (1.2%), 2.5 to 2.9 in 1 patient (0.2%), and 3.0 or more in 2 patients (0.4% [95% CI, 0.1%-1.5%]). Coronary artery dimensions ultimately normalized in all but 1 patient, who had minimal dilation at 6 weeks (right coronary artery z score, 2.1). Sensitivity analyses using less restrictive cut points (eg, a maximum z score

Historically, fruit juice was recommended by pediatricians as a source of vitamin C and as an extra source of water for healthy infants and young children as their diets expanded to include solid foods with higher renal solute load. It was also sometimes recommended for children with constipation. Fruit juice is marketed as a healthy, natural source of vitamins and, in some instances, calcium. Because juice tastes good, children readily accept it. Although juice consumption has some benefits, it also has potential detrimental effects. High sugar content in juice contributes to increased calorie consumption and the risk of dental caries. In addition, the lack of protein and fiber in juice can predispose to inappropriate weight gain (too much or too little). Pediatricians need to be knowledgeable about juice to inform parents and patients on its appropriate uses.