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BACKGROUND:: Adjustment for differing risks among patients is usually incorporated into newer payment approaches, and current risk models rely on age, sex, and diagnosis codes. It is unknown the extent to which controlling additionally for disease severity improves cost prediction. Failure to adjust for within-disease variation may create incentives to avoid sicker patients. We address this issue among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS:: Cost and clinical data were collected prospectively from 1202 COPD patients at Kaiser Permanente. Baseline analysis included age, sex, and diagnosis codes (using the Diagnostic Cost Group Relative Risk Score) in a general linear model predicting total medical costs in the following year. We determined whether adding COPD severity measures - forced expiratory volume in 1 second, 6-Minute Walk Test, dyspnea score, body mass index, and BODE Index (composite of the other 4 measures) - improved predictions. Separately, we examined household income as a cost predictor. RESULTS:: Mean costs were $12,334/y. Controlling for Relative Risk Score, each 1/2 SD worsening in COPD severity factor was associated with $629 to $1135 in increased annual costs (all P

Objectives. We estimated the extent to which socioeconomic status (SES) gradients in adult asthma and rhinitis outcomes can be explained by home and neighborhood environmental factors. Methods. Using survey data for 515 adults with either asthma or rhinitis, or both, we examined environmental mediators of SES associations with disease severity, using the Severity of Asthma Scale, and health-related quality of life (HRQL), using the Rhinasthma Scale. We defined SES on the basis of education and household income. Potential environmental mediators included home type and ownership, exposures to allergens and irritants, and a summary measure of perceived neighborhood problems. We modeled each outcome as a function of SES, and controlled for age, gender, and potential mediators. Results. Gradients in SES were apparent in disease severity and HRQL. Living in a rented house partially mediated the SES gradient for both severity and HRQL (P Conclusions. Differences in home and neighborhood environments partially explained associations of SES with adult asthma and rhinitis outcomes.