1. The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change
- Author
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Michael Wehner, Suzanne M. Rosier, Ilan Noy, and David J. Frame
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate system ,Event Attribution ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Climate change ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Basic Behavioral and Social Science ,Extreme weather ,Economic cost ,Behavioral and Social Science ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Global and Planetary Change ,Climate Action ,Climatology ,Attributable risk ,Damages ,Environmental science ,Hurricane Harvey ,Tropical cyclone - Abstract
Hurricane Harvey is one of the costliest tropical cyclones in history. In this paper, we use a probabilistic event attribution framework to estimate the costs associated with Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influence on the climate system. Results indicate that the “fraction of attributable risk” for the rainfall from Harvey was likely about at least a third with a preferable/best estimate of three quarters. With an average estimate of damages from Harvey assessed at about US$90bn, applying this fraction gives a best estimate of US$67bn, with a likely lower bound of at least US$30bn, of these damages that are attributable to the human influence on climate. This “bottom-up” event-based estimate of climate change damages contrasts sharply with the more “top-down” approach using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or global macroeconometric estimates: one IAM estimates annual climate change damages in the USA to be in the region of US$21.3bn. While the two approaches are not easily comparable, it is noteworthy that our “bottom-up” results estimate that one single extreme weather event contributes more to climate change damages in the USA than an entire year by the “top-down” method. Given that the “top-down” approach, at best, parameterizes but does not resolve the effects of extreme weather events, our findings suggest that the “bottom-up” approach is a useful avenue to pursue in future attempts to refine estimates of climate change damages.
- Published
- 2020