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Introduction This study examined the predictive relationships between biomarkers of nicotine exposure and 16-item self-reported level of tobacco dependence (TD) and subsequent tobacco use outcomes. Aims and Methods The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study surveyed adult current established tobacco users who provided urine biospecimens at Wave 1 (September 2013–December 2014) and completed the Wave 2 (October 2014–October 2015) interview (n = 6872). Mutually exclusive user groups at Wave 1 included: Cigarette Only, E-cigarette Only, Cigar Only, Hookah Only, Smokeless Tobacco Only, Cigarette Plus E-cigarette, multiple tobacco product users who smoked cigarettes, and multiple tobacco product users who did not smoke cigarettes. Total Nicotine Equivalents (TNE-2) and TD were measured at Wave 1. Approximate one-year outcomes included frequency/quantity used, quitting, and adding/switching to different tobacco products. Results For Cigarette Only smokers and multiple tobacco product users who smoked cigarettes, higher TD and TNE-2 were associated with: a tendency to smoke more, smoking more frequently over time, decreased likelihood of switching away from cigarettes, and decreased probability of quitting after one year. For other product user groups, Wave 1 TD and/or TNE-2 were less consistently related to changes in quantity and frequency of product use, or for adding or switching products, but higher TNE-2 was more consistently predictive of decreased probability of quitting. Conclusions Self-reported TD and nicotine exposure assess common and independent aspects of dependence in relation to tobacco use behaviors for cigarette smokers. For other product user groups, nicotine exposure is a more consistent predictor of quitting than self-reported TD. Implications This study suggests that smoking cigarettes leads to the most coherent pattern of associations consistent with a syndrome of TD. Because cigarettes continue to be prevalent and harmful, efforts to decrease their use may be accelerated via conventional means (eg, smoking cessation interventions and treatments), but also perhaps by decreasing their dependence potential. The implications for noncombustible tobacco products are less clear as the stability of tobacco use patterns that include products such as e-cigarettes continue to evolve. TD, nicotine exposure measures, and consumption could be used in studies that attempt to understand and predict product-specific tobacco use behavioral outcomes.

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Background and aims With no established standard for assessing tobacco dependence (TD) across tobacco products in surveys, the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study provides a unique platform for examining the psychometric properties and validity of multiple indicators of tobacco dependence across a range of tobacco products. Participants A U.S. nationally representative sample from the 32,320 adult Wave 1 interviews with analyses focused on 14,287 respondents who were current established users of tobacco products. Findings This analysis confirms a single primary latent construct underlying responses to TD indicators for cigarettes, e-cigarettes, cigars, hookah, and smokeless tobacco products. Mutually exclusive past year tobacco-user groups included: cigarette only (n = 8689), e-cigarette only (n = 437), cigar only (traditional, cigarillo, or filtered) (n = 706), hookah only (n = 461), smokeless tobacco only (n = 971), cigarette plus e-cigarette (n = 709), and multiple tobacco product users (n = 2314). Differential Item Functioning (DIF) analyses supported use of 16 of the 24 examined TD indicators for comparisons across tobacco users. With cigarette users as a reference (mean = 0.0, SD = 1.0), we observed a range of TD with hookah (mean = −1.71) and cigar (mean = −1.92) only users being the lowest, and cigarette plus e-cigarette product users being the highest (mean = 0.35). Regression models including sociodemographic factors supported concurrent validity with increased product use frequency and TD among cigarette-only (p