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PurposeIn order to use a breast cancer prediction model in clinical practice to guide screening and prevention, it must be well calibrated and validated in samples independent from the one used for development. We assessed the accuracy of the breast cancer surveillance consortium (BCSC) model in a racially diverse population followed for up to 10 years.MethodsThe BCSC model combines breast density with other risk factors to estimate a woman's 5- and 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer. We validated the model in an independent cohort of 252,997 women in the Chicago area. We evaluated calibration using the ratio of expected to observed (E/O) invasive breast cancers in the cohort and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).ResultsIn an independent cohort of 252,997 women (median age 50 years, 26% non-Hispanic Black), the BCSC model was well calibrated (E/O = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.98), but underestimated the incidence of invasive breast cancer in younger women and in women with low mammographic density. The AUROC was 0.633, similar to that observed in prior validation studies.ConclusionsThe BCSC model is a well-validated risk assessment tool for breast cancer that may be particularly useful when assessing the utility of supplemental screening in women with dense breasts.

BackgroundThe extent of coronary artery calcium (CAC) improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction. The association between common dyslipidemias (combined hyperlipidemia, simple hypercholesterolemia, metabolic Syndrome (MetS), isolated low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and isolated hypertriglyceridemia) compared with normolipidemia and the risk of multivessel CAC is underinvestigated.ObjectivesTo determine whether there is an association between common dyslipidemias compared with normolipidemia, and the extent of coronary artery involvement among MESA participants who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline.MethodsIn a cross-sectional analysis, 4,917 MESA participants were classified into six groups defined by specific LDL-c, HDL-c, or triglyceride cutoff points. Multivessel CAC was defined as involvement of at least 2 coronary arteries. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis evaluated the association of each group with multivessel CAC after adjusting for CVD risk factors.ResultsUnadjusted analysis showed that all groups except hypertriglyceridemia had statistically significant prevalence ratios of having multivessel CAC as compared to the normolipidemia group. The same groups maintained statistical significance prevalence ratios with multivariate analysis adjusting for other risk factors including Agatston CAC score [combined hyperlipidemia 1.41 (1.06-1.87), hypercholesterolemia 1.55 (1.26-1.92), MetS 1.28 (1.09-1.51), and low HDL-c 1.20 (1.02-1.40)].ConclusionCombined hyperlipidemia, simple hypercholesterolemia, MetS, and low HDL-c were associated with multivessel coronary artery disease independent of CVD risk factors and CAC score. These findings may lay the groundwork for further analysis of the underlying mechanisms in the observed relationship, as well as for the development of clinical strategies for primary prevention.

BackgroundThe extent of coronary artery calcium (CAC) improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction. The association between common dyslipidemias (combined hyperlipidemia, simple hypercholesterolemia, metabolic Syndrome (MetS), isolated low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and isolated hypertriglyceridemia) compared with normolipidemia and the risk of multivessel CAC is underinvestigated.ObjectivesTo determine whether there is an association between common dyslipidemias compared with normolipidemia, and the extent of coronary artery involvement among MESA participants who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline.MethodsIn a cross-sectional analysis, 4,917 MESA participants were classified into six groups defined by specific LDL-c, HDL-c, or triglyceride cutoff points. Multivessel CAC was defined as involvement of at least 2 coronary arteries. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis evaluated the association of each group with multivessel CAC after adjusting for CVD risk factors.ResultsUnadjusted analysis showed that all groups except hypertriglyceridemia had statistically significant prevalence ratios of having multivessel CAC as compared to the normolipidemia group. The same groups maintained statistical significance prevalence ratios with multivariate analysis adjusting for other risk factors including Agatston CAC score [combined hyperlipidemia 1.41 (1.06-1.87), hypercholesterolemia 1.55 (1.26-1.92), MetS 1.28 (1.09-1.51), and low HDL-c 1.20 (1.02-1.40)].ConclusionCombined hyperlipidemia, simple hypercholesterolemia, MetS, and low HDL-c were associated with multivessel coronary artery disease independent of CVD risk factors and CAC score. These findings may lay the groundwork for further analysis of the underlying mechanisms in the observed relationship, as well as for the development of clinical strategies for primary prevention.