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Passive surveillance can be most effective in the early detection of disease outbreaks given that farmers observe their animals daily. The European Animal Health Law states that unexplained excess mortality should be reported to the veterinary authorities. In the Netherlands, in addition to notifications to the competent authority, Royal GD is commissioned a passive surveillance component that consists of a veterinary helpdesk and postmortem examination for early detection of emerging diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate this voluntary passive surveillance component through excess mortality in cattle. Weekly on-farm mortality was calculated using the cattle Identification and Registration records. Mortality was assessed on regional level for dairy, veal and other beef cattle using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) (log-link, negative binomial). We used a cumulative sum of the model residuals to identify periods of excess mortality. The mortality was defined as excessive when above five times the standard error. The analysis was also conducted on herd level, but these models did not converge. We checked for an association between the two passive surveillance components elements and excess mortality. A GLM (log-link, negative binomial) with the number of contacts or submissions per region as the dependent variables and excess mortality per region and year as independent variables was carried out. Overall, the models showed significantly higher use of passive surveillance components in periods of excess mortality compared to non-excess periods. In dairy cattle the odds for contact or submission were between 1.72 (1.59-1.86) and 2.02 (1.82-2.25). For veal calves we found the odds of 2.19 (1.18-4.04) and 2.24 (1.78-2.83) relative to periods without excess mortality. Beef cattle operations, other than veal, showed only an increased odds for postmortem submissions in calves of 3.71 (2.74-5.01), submissions for cattle and contact in general was not increased for this farm type. In conclusion, the voluntary passive surveillance component in the Netherlands is used more often in periods of excess mortality in cattle. The chance of getting a timely response is highest for dairy farms. For veal calf operations the chance of receiving a timely response is more likely for postmortem submissions. A comparison with passive surveillance for excess mortality in other countries was not possible because no literature could be found. However, the method of this study can be used by other countries to evaluate their passive surveillance. This would make comparison of the performance of passive surveillance in different countries possible., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest G.S. is parttime employed at Royal GD; the other authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The true prevalence of dairy cattle herds with M. bovis infections in the Netherlands is unknown. Previous attempts to estimate prevalences were hampered by the absence of a diagnostic serological test that was validated under field conditions. This study estimated sensitivity and specificity of two commercial serum ELISAs and the true M. bovis herd prevalence using different Bayesian latent class models. A total of 7305 serum samples from 415 randomly chosen dairy herds were collected in fall/winter 2019 and investigated for presence of antibodies against M. bovis using the BIO-K-260 ELISA from Bio-X. Serum samples from 100 of these herds were also tested with a second ELISA, from IDvet. A Bayesian latent class model using the paired test results estimated a sensitivity of 14.1% (95% Bayesian probability interval (BPI): 11.6-16.7%) for the Bio-X ELISA and a specificity of 97.2% (95% BPI: 95.9-98.4%). Sensitivity and specificity for the IDvet ELISA were estimated at 92.5% (95% BPI: 88.3-96.5%) and 99.3% (95% BPI: 98.7-99.8%), respectively. Also, Bio-X ELISA sensitivity was considerably higher with data from calves only and with data from a selection of herds with a clinical outbreak, whereas the IDvet ELISA sensitivity was fairly constant under these conditions. These differences in test sensitivity is expected to be related to an effect of time since infection. A second Bayesian model, applied on test results of all 415 herds, estimated a true herd prevalence of 69.9% (95% BPI: 62.7-77.6%), suggesting M. bovis in endemic amongst dairy cattle herds in the Netherlands. To what extent seropositive herds have experienced a clinical outbreak needs further investigation., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: A. Veldhuis reports a relationship with Royal GD that includes: employment. M. Aalberts reports a relationship with Royal GD that includes: employment. P. Penterman reports a relationship with Royal GD that includes: employment. G. van Schaik reports a relationship with Royal GD that includes: employment., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Understanding antibiotic prescription patterns and non-clinical factors influencing antibiotic use is essential for implementing strategies to promote appropriate antibiotic use. There is, however, limited research exploring these issues with Ecuadorian veterinarians. Therefore, a questionnaire was developed and applied cross-sectionally to veterinarians (n = 173) from two professional organizations to explore the antibiotic prescription patterns and non-clinical factors (e.g., attitudes and perceptions) influencing antibiotic use, and to identify strategies to reduce antibiotic use. The response rate was 78.4%. Responses were compared between veterinarians working mainly on cattle and poultry farms using Mann-Whitney U tests. The most important attitudes, beliefs and perceptions towards antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and antibiotic use were identified with the Relative Importance Index (RII). Veterinarians showed high awareness of AMR and its implications for public health, as well as the necessity of reducing antibiotic use. However, some veterinarians appear to underestimate the potential contribution of veterinary antibiotic use on AMR in humans. Veterinarians self-reported high prescription (> 20%) of antibiotics for cattle and poultry that are critically important for human medicine, such as 3rd and 4th generation cephalosporins, polymyxins and quinolones. Further, antibiotic therapy was not tailored to disease type. Cattle and poultry veterinarians perceived similar barriers to increasing antibiotic stewardship including: poor biosecurity measures, animal confinement, low feed quality, farmers' behaviors (such as stopping antibiotic treatment, storing antibiotics on farms, buying antibiotics in veterinary supply stores), and sales agents' roles as non-professional prescribers of antibiotics. Overall, veterinarians were broadly supportive (>90%) of most strategies to promote appropriate antibiotic use. They saw more merit in improving biosecurity of farms and implementing educational programs for farmers and veterinarians. This study provides insight into the complexity of antibiotic use on Ecuadorian farms and the need for holistic strategies in a One Health context, to achieve antibiotic stewardship., Competing Interests: Declarations of interest None., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: In the Netherlands, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is monitored in commensal indicator Escherichia coli from healthy broilers at slaughter as part of a European monitoring programme. In a separate programme for poultry health, AMR is monitored in veterinary pathogens from diseased broilers. So far, it is unknown how the outcomes of these two AMR monitoring approaches in the same animal population are associated., Aims: This study aims to investigate the association between the outcomes of monitoring non-wildtype susceptibility (using epidemiological cut-off values, ECOFF, as prescribed by EU legislation) in commensal E. coli isolated from healthy broilers (i.e. active surveillance) with the outcomes of monitoring clinical resistance (using clinical breakpoints, to determine susceptibility for antibiotic treatment in veterinary practice) in E. coli isolated from diseased broilers (i.e. passive surveillance)., Methods: Data acquired by broth microdilution was analysed for commensal indicator E. coli and clinical E. coli from the Netherlands, 2014-2019. A generalized linear multivariable model (Poisson regression) was used to determine time trends and identify differences in mean resistant proportions., Results: Observed resistant proportions of the monitored commensal E. coli and clinical E. coli were similar with overlapping confidence intervals for most time points for ampicillin, gentamicin, cefotaxime, tetracycline, colistin and trimethoprim/sulfonamide. The statistical analysis showed that only for cefotaxime and tetracycline, mean resistant proportions were different. In commensal E. coli, a decrease of resistant proportions over time was observed, except for gentamicin. In clinical E. coli, no time trend was detected in resistant proportions, except for cefotaxime and colistin., Conclusions: Generally, the resistant proportions monitored in commensal and clinical E. coli were similar. However, some relevant differences were found, which can be explained by the type of monitoring approach, i.e. active or passive surveillance. The random sample of commensal E. coli isolated from healthy animals (active surveillance), was more suitable to monitor AMR time trends. The sample of clinical isolates from diseased animals (passive surveillance), resulted in a higher chance to detect low-prevalent resistance: i.e. cefotaxime and colistin. The clinical E. coli data showed more fluctuation over time, and data from a longer period of time would be needed to determine the association. This study shows the value of both an active and a passive surveillance component for AMR monitoring., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) monitoring in animals is performed in commensal Escherichia coli, and other microorganisms relevant for human or veterinary health. Due to advances in the field and major reductions in cost, it is expected that whole-genome sequencing (WGS)-based antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) will (partly) replace culture-based AST. So far, no studies have been performed without using culture-based AST as the gold standard. Our aim was to use Bayesian latent class analysis to evaluate the accuracy of susceptibility testing of commensal E. coli by WGS-based AST versus culture-based AST as this test does not assume a gold standard. OpenBUGS was used to model two independent tests in three animal populations (N = 150, 50 bacterial isolates per population): veal calves, pigs, and broilers. This resulted in the first estimation of sensitivity and specificity of WGS-based AST versus culture-based AST to detect AMR without a gold standard. Both methods had high sensitivity (>0.92, lowest limit probability interval: 0.76) and specificity was generally high for both methods for all antimicrobial classes except for aminoglycosides and macrolides. We compared WGS results for different length and identity settings (%) of gene alignment and found few differences between the 60/90, 90/90 and 95/95 settings. We recommend to further investigate sensitivity and specificity of WGS-based AST by means of latent class analysis, especially for low-prevalent resistance., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Several European countries have implemented country specific programmes to control cattle diseases with little or no regulation in the European Union (EU). These control programmes vary between member states, impairing a confident comparison of freedom from disease when cattle originate from different countries. In order to facilitate safe trade, there is a need to support the development of transparent methods that enable comparison of outputs of surveillance, control or eradication programmes. The aim of the COST Action (CA 17110), Standardizing OUtput-based surveillance to control Non-regulated Diseases in the EU (SOUND control), is the development of a generic and joint understanding of the requirements and characteristics needed for a flexible output-based framework. This framework should be able to substantiate the confidence of disease freedom and cost-effectiveness of heterogeneous surveillance, control or eradication programmes for cattle diseases in the EU. This project supports other initiatives in the development of an output-based framework which will subsequently facilitate safe trade and support the improvement of disease control measures, which is of great importance as the cattle sector contributes to one third of the total gross production value of EU agriculture., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

In the late summer of 2011, a sudden rise in incidence of fever, drop in milk production and diarrhoea was observed in dairy cows in the eastern region of the Netherlands and in north-western Germany. In the autumn of 2011, a novel orthobunyavirus was identified by metagenomic analyses in samples from acutely diseased cows on a farm near the German city of Schmallenberg, and was thereafter named Schmallenberg virus (SBV). Due to the novelty of the virus, there was an immediate need for knowledge regarding the epidemiological characteristics of SBV-infections to inform surveillance and control strategies. A rapid assessment of the spread and impact of an emerging disease supports decision-makers on allocation of resources. This paper reviews the disease mitigation activities during and after the SBV epidemic in the Netherlands, to illustrate the phases in surveillance when a new (vector-borne) pathogen emerges in a country or region. Immediate and short-term disease mitigation activities that were initiated after SBV was identified are discussed in detail, as well as ways to enhance future surveillance (e.g. by syndromic surveillance) and preparedness for similar disease outbreaks. By doing so, lessons learnt from the SBV epidemic will also improve surveillance for other emerging diseases in cattle., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This study aimed at comparing the surveillance program of bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BHV1) as laid down by EU Decision 2004/558/EC and 2007/584/EC ('conventional design') with an alternative design. The alternative design was based on monthly bulk-milk testing, clinical surveillance and a risk-based component that involves testing of animals that are purchased from non-free cattle herds. Scenario-tree analyses were carried out to determine sensitivities of the surveillance system (and its components) and the monthly confidence of freedom on herd-level. Also, the expected costs per surveillance design and components thereof were calculated. Results showed that the conventional (EU) and alternative surveillance designs to obtain a BHV1-free status performed equally well in terms of sensitivity. However, total costs per cattle herd to obtain a free status were highest in the conventional design. In an endemic situation and with a within-herd design prevalence of 10%, the conventional design led to a varying probability of freedom ranging from 99.6% to 100% per month. With the alternative design, in this situation, a constant probability of freedom of >99.9% per month was found. In a disease-free situation, both designs performed equally well (probability of freedom >99.9% per month). The yearly costs per farm for monitoring the disease-free status decreased by approximately 25% in the alternative design. The alternative strategy based on monthly bulk-milk monitoring therefore was deemed most cost-effective. This study showed that the surveillance regime to attain and maintain a BHV1-free status as described by EU-legislation can be improved to reduce the monitoring costs without reduction of the system's sensitivity, given a within-herd design prevalence of 10%. The assessment of various surveillance designs could be highly useful to support decision-making towards a more risk-based approach of animal health surveillance., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This study aimed to evaluate the use of routinely collected reproductive and milk production data for the early detection of emerging vector-borne diseases in cattle in the Netherlands and the Flanders region of Belgium (i.e., the northern part of Belgium). Prospective space-time cluster analyses on residuals from a model on milk production were carried out to detect clusters of reduced milk yield. A CUSUM algorithm was used to detect temporal aberrations in model residuals of reproductive performance models on two indicators of gestation length. The Bluetongue serotype-8 (BTV-8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) epidemic of 2011 were used as case studies to evaluate the sensitivity and timeliness of these methods. The methods investigated in this study did not result in a more timely detection of BTV-8 and SBV in the Netherlands and BTV-8 in Belgium given the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. This could be due to (i) the large geographical units used in the analyses (country, region and province level), and (ii) the high level of sensitivity of the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. Nevertheless, it might be worthwhile to use a syndromic surveillance system based on non-specific animal health data in real-time alongside regular surveillance, to increase the sense of urgency and to provide valuable quantitative information for decision makers in the initial phase of an emerging disease outbreak., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3-4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3°C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Two culicoides-borne diseases, Bluetongue (BTV) and Schmallenberg, have emerged in the European cattle population since 2006. Other diseases transmitted by these vectors could emerge. This justifies the development of syndromic surveillance programs whereby one or several indicators would be routinely monitored for the early detection of emerging diseases. The aim of this study was to evaluate milk yield from milk recording in dairy cattle as an indicator to be included in an emerging disease surveillance system. It was hypothesized that emergences would result in episodes of low milk production clustered in space and time. The 2007 BTV epizootic in France was used as a case study. Because it had already emerged in neighbouring countries, the disease emergence was expected and notification was mandatory. Herd-test-day milk productions were predicted for the entire country for 2006 and 2007 from herd historical data using linear mixed models. The differences between observed and predicted milk productions were averaged per week and per municipality and used as input for a space-time prospective scan statistic. Log likelihood ratios (LLR) associated with clusters were used to define alarms. The threshold chosen was a trade-off between detection timeliness and the number of false alarms per week. The first four BTV notifications occurred on the 12th (two notifications), 13th and 27th of July 2007. The 12th of July was considered to be the date of emergence. Alarms occurring before the 1st of March 2007 were considered to be false alarms. Using an LLR of 50, there were an average of 1.7 false alarms per week and the BTV emergence was detected seven weeks after emergence. Using an LLR of 100, there were an average of 0.8 false alarms per week and the BTV emergence was detected 9 weeks after emergence. Detection may have been delayed because of a discontinuation of milk recording between mid-July and mid-August. The first cluster with an LLR>100 located in the emergence area was further investigated. A difference between observed and predicted production of >1 kg/cow/day was observed around the time of emergence. However, a difference of equal magnitude was observed during the year preceding the outbreak. Milk production predicted from herd history alone did not allow the detection of the 2007 BTV emergence in France. Further research should be conducted on improving the prediction of test-day milk yield and on combining it with other indicators based on routinely collected data., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Age at which cattle become faecal culture positive for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) can be used as a proxy parameter for age at onset of faecal shedding, which is an important parameter in the control of Map in cattle herds. To investigate the age at becoming faecal culture positive, survival analysis methods were applied. The analyses were carried out on asynchronous interval censored data of faecal culture results of samples collected from 18,979 female Holstein-Frisian cattle in 353 Dutch herds between 1996 and 2002. The data were analysed with a Weibull proportional hazards model. The results indicate that the distribution of age at onset of faecal shedding in Holstein-Frisian dairy cattle in infected herds is associated with the within-herd prevalence. In higher classes of apparent prevalence, cattle started to shed Map at younger age on average. In herds with an apparent prevalence <0.05, 0.05-0.1, 0.1-0.2 and ≥0.2, the proportion (95% CI) of cattle with onset of faecal shedding before 2 years of age was estimated at 1% (0.5%; 2%), 4% (3%; 5%), 8% (5%; 10%) and 20% (11%; 32%), respectively. This study indicates that a considerable proportion of young stock is shedding Map, especially in high prevalence herds. Therefore, infectious young stock should be a major concern in the control of paratuberculosis., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Two tests are used on a regular basis to detect Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map): ELISA and fecal culture. Fecal culture is considered more sensitive and specific but is costly and requires 3-4 months for results. Pooling of fecal samples of individual animals may reduce the high costs of fecal culture. The objective of the study was to investigate the diagnostic validity and costs for pooling of fecal samples in dairy farms relative to culture or an ELISA on individual samples to determine the cow- or herd-status for Map. Fifty fecal and blood samples per herd were collected in 12 Chilean dairy herds. The sensitivity of pooling was estimated given the pool-size, amount of shedding in the pool and the prevalence in the herd. The sensitivity of the pools relative to individual fecal culture was 46% (95% CI 29-63%) and 48% (28-68%) for pools of 5 and 10 cows, respectively. The sensitivity of the pools was lower in pools with low shedders (26 and 24% for pools of 5 and 10, respectively) than in pools with moderate or heavy shedders (>75% sensitivity). Pools of 10 cows are the better option to determine or monitor the herd status. A whole-herd ELISA is the least expensive way to determine the status of individual cows but has a lower Se and Sp than individual culture.

We conducted a study on 81 initially bulk-milk ELISA negative dairy herds taken from a random sample of Dutch dairy herds to evaluate variation in bulk-milk S/P ratios and to study reasons for bulk-milk conversion. These herds were repeatedly (3-month intervals) tested between April 2004 and August 2005 and serostatus of all animals had previously been established as negative (N), low-positive (LP) or high-positive (HP). Of these herds, herd- and test-related factors associated with variation in sample over positive (S/P) ratios were analysed using a multivariable linear-mixed model with 'herd' as random effect. In addition, changes of animal serostatus in converting herds were described. S/P ratios were calculated as the optical density of the bulk-milk sample minus the optical density of the negative serum control divided by the difference in optical density between the positive and negative serum control. Sixteen bulk-milk conversions in 12 dairy herds were seen with few indications of serological conversion in lactating cattle except for one herd in which recrudescence of infection appeared likely in nine cows. The effect of HP serostatus on bulk-milk S/P ratio was 2-3 times stronger compared with LP serostatus. In addition, bulk-milk S/P-ratio increased when the proportion of HP animals between 1 and 60 days in milk increased and decreased when the average milk-production level of the herd increased. Besides these herd-related factors, the use of different ELISA-testkits between test rounds had a significant effect on the S/P-ratio in bulk-milk samples.

In this study we used field data collected from October 2001 to January 2002 to estimate number of days of faecal excretion of Salmonella Dublin bacteria and time to seroconversion in infected calves below the age of 180 days. Based on these estimates all calves in four endemically infected dairy herds were grouped into the following infection states: susceptible (S), infectious (I) and resistant/recovered (R). Resistant calves had either acquired maternal antibodies through colostrum or they have recovered from previous infection and had a high level of antibodies directed against Salmonella Dublin possibly protecting them from becoming infected again until the level of antibodies had decreased to sufficiently low levels. Using the antibody measurements and faecal excretion periods, it was possible to assign the most likely infection state to each calf per week of the study period. Estimates of transmission parameter, beta, were obtained from a generalised linear model relating the number of new infections to the proportion of susceptible and infectious calves per week. From beta, the reproduction ratio R at steady state and the basic reproduction ratio R(0) were estimated for each herd and across herds. The R(0) denotes the average number of new infections caused by one infectious individual that is introduced to a fully susceptible population. The point estimates for R(0) ranged from 1.1 to 2.7 in the study herds. However, the confidence intervals were wide. Data were too limited to show possible significant differences in the parameters between the study herds. However, the tendency in the data suggested that there may be important differences. Across herds the R(0) was close to two suggesting that on average one infectious calf will produce two new infectious calves when introduced into a fully susceptible population under typical Danish dairy production systems. Further, the analyses indicated that environmental contamination from infectious calves plays an important role in transmitting Salmonella Dublin between calves.

We quantified the effect of Neospora caninum (NC)-serostatus on culling and (re)production in 83 herds randomly selected from the Dutch dairy herd population (random group) and in 17 herds that had experienced an abortion epidemic associated with NC infection (epidemic-abortion group). In the random group, a single whole-herd blood sampling was done during the spring of 2003, while in the epidemic-abortion group whole-herd blood sampling was done repeatedly at least once a year starting after the abortion epidemic during the period 1997-2000 until the summer of 2004. Serological test-results for NC were given as 'negative' (N), 'low-positive' (LP) and 'high-positive' (HP). For analysing the time to culling, calving interval and age of first calving, survival analysis was used. For categorical reproduction parameters either a logistic-regression model (abortion, non-return after 1st insemination) or a Poisson-regression model (number of inseminations per pregnancy) was used. For milk production a linear-mixed model was used. All models were controlled, if applicable, for confounding variables like parity, production, season, year and abortion and adjusted for within-herd clustering. In random herds, HP serostatus increased the hazard for culling 1.73-fold (95% CI: 1.37-2.19) compared to N and LP serostatus. Compared to N serostatus, LP and HP serostatus in epidemic-abortion herds increased the odds for abortion 1.88-fold (95% CI: 1.41-2.52) and 1.72-fold (95% CI: 1.38-2.14), respectively. No other reproduction parameters were associated with NC-serostatus in the random or epidemic-abortion herds. We found no effect of serostatus on milk production in the random group. In contrast, milk production of LP and HP serostatus in the epidemic-abortion group was respectively, 0.72kgmilk/day (95% CI: 0.15-1.03) and 0.59kgmilk/day (95% CI: 0.13-1.30), less during the first 100 days of lactation in the first year after the abortion epidemic compared with N serostatus.

In control programs for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), the infection status of the cows in a herd is often obtained by testing (a sample of) the herd with an ELISA that may lack some sensitivity and specificity but that is fast and inexpensive. In New York State (NYS), an unabsorbed kinetics ELISA (KELA) has been used extensively for Map control. The objective of this study was to determine the relative sensitivity and specificity of the KELA for detection of fecal shedding of Map for the NYS dairy cow population, taking into account possible confounders such as different antigen batches and Map prevalence in a herd. The data for the study consisted of all serum samples from NYS dairy cows with concurrent fecal culture results submitted to the NY Animal Health Diagnostic Laboratory (NYAHDL) between 1991 and 1996 (n=10,562). The data represented cows with different levels of fecal shedding from herds with different within-herd Map prevalence, including herds that were whole herd fecal culture negative on repeated testing. The cutoff values were based on the predictive value for fecal shedding obtained with a multiple logistic regression model that included variables for the three antigen batches and the Map prevalence in the herd. The KELA could not distinguish between non-shedders and low shedders (30 TCFU) was modeled. The three cutoff values of 65, 135 and 170 were based on low (<0.2), moderate (<0.80) and high (>0.95) probabilities for moderate to heavy fecal shedding. The sensitivity and specificity values relative to culture were 67% and 95.2%, 31% and 99.7%, and 11% and 99.9% for the three cutoff values, respectively. Cutoff values for the KELA decreased for herds with increasing within-herd Map prevalence. For the best positive predictive value of a KELA for moderate to heavy fecal shedding, the cutoff values should be determined based on the apparent within-herd prevalence in a herd.