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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Plasma triglyceride concentration is a biomarker for circulating triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and their metabolic remnants. Common mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridaemia is typically multigenic, and results from the cumulative burden of common and rare variants in more than 30 genes, as quantified by genetic risk scores. Rare autosomal recessive monogenic hypertriglyceridaemia can result from large-effect mutations in six different genes. Hypertriglyceridaemia is exacerbated by non-genetic factors. On the basis of recent genetic data, we redefine the disorder into two states: severe (triglyceride concentration >10 mmol/L), which is more likely to have a monogenic cause; and mild-to-moderate (triglyceride concentration 2-10 mmol/L). Because of clustering of susceptibility alleles and secondary factors in families, biochemical screening and counselling for family members is essential, but routine genetic testing is not warranted. Treatment includes management of lifestyle and secondary factors, and pharmacotherapy. In severe hypertriglyceridaemia, intervention is indicated because of pancreatitis risk; in mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridaemia, intervention can be indicated to prevent cardiovascular disease, dependent on triglyceride concentration, concomitant lipoprotein disturbances, and overall cardiovascular risk.

Both reduced filtration power and increased excretion of albumin in the urine are powerful markers for renal and cardiovascular progressive function loss. These risk markers indicate the risk above and beyond the conventional existing risk markers/factors. The risk is substantial, because both reduced filtration and microalbuminuria are highly prevalent in the general population, matching in prevalence with the most well-known risk factor, hypertension. Therapeutic interventions to preserve renal and cardiovascular function, such as with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor antagonists, are highly effective, particularly in those patients that have reduced filtration power. In addition, short-term reduction of albuminuria that follows the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system intervention appears to be predictive of long-term cardiovascular and renal protection. In conclusion, estimated glomerular filtration rate as well as albumin excretion in the urine are powerful predictors for cardiovascular and renal outcome and should be used as such. Intervention and prevention could be aimed at not only at reducing conventional risk markers, but also at reducing albuminuria.

Objective: Different from the general observed decline in old-age mortality, for The Netherlands and Norway there have been reports of stagnation in the decline since the 1980s. We detect periods of stagnation in recent old-age mortality trends, and explore for which causes of death the recent stagnation is most apparent.Study Design and Setting: We applied Poisson regression analysis to total and cause-specific mortality data by age (80+), period (1950-1999), and sex for seven European low-mortality countries.Results: We found large heterogeneity in the pace of decline in the countries under investigation, with periods of stagnation being widespread. In the 1980s and 1990s, stagnation was observed in Denmark, The Netherlands, and Norway (males). Continued mortality decline was observed especially in France. Although smoking has had a marked influence on the trends in old-age mortality, the role of smoking in the recent stagnation seems only modest and restricted to Norway. Mortality from cardiovascular diseases showed important crossnational variations in the pace of decline. Mortality from diseases specifically related to old age increased recently in all countries, except France.Conclusion: Old-age mortality seems highly plastic and susceptible to many factors, with both favorable and unfavorable effects on trends over time. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.