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Background: Early identification of an acute respiratory infection is important for reducing transmission and enabling earlier therapeutic intervention. We aimed to prospectively evaluate the feasibility of home-based diagnostic self-testing of viral pathogens in individuals prompted to do so on the basis of self-reported symptoms or individual changes in physiological parameters detected via a wearable sensor., Methods: DETECT-AHEAD was a prospective, decentralised, randomised controlled trial carried out in a subpopulation of an existing cohort (DETECT) of individuals enrolled in a digital-only observational study in the USA. Participants aged 18 years or older were randomly assigned (1:1:1) with a block randomisation scheme stratified by under-represented in biomedical research status. All participants were offered a wearable sensor (Fitbit Sense smartwatch). Participants in groups 1 and 2 received an at-home self-test kit (Alveo be.well) for two acute respiratory viral pathogens: SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus. Participants in group 1 could be alerted through the DETECT study app to take the at-home test on the basis of changes in their physiological data (as detected by our algorithm) or due to self-reported symptoms; those in group 2 were prompted via the app to self-test only due to symptoms. Group 3 served as the control group, without alerts or home testing capability. The primary endpoints, assessed on an intention-to-treat basis, were the number of acute respiratory infections presented (self-reported) and diagnosed (electronic health record), and the number of participants using at-home testing in groups 1 and 2. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04336020., Findings: Between Sept 28 and Dec 30, 2021, 450 participants were recruited and randomly assigned to group 1 (n=149), group 2 (n=151), or group 3 (n=150). 179 (40%) participants were male, 264 (59%) were female, and seven (2%) identified as other. 232 (52%) were from populations historically under-represented in biomedical research. 118 (39%) of the 300 participants in groups 1 and 2 were prompted to self-test, with 61 (52%) successfully completing self-testing. Participants were prompted to home-test more frequently due to symptoms (41 [28%] in group 1 and 51 [34%] in group 2) than due to detected physiological changes (26 [17%] in group 1). Significantly more participants in group 1 received alerts to test than did those in group 2 (67 [45%] vs 51 [34%]; p=0·047). Of the 61 individuals who were prompted to test and successfully did so, 19 (31%) tested positive for a viral pathogen-all for SARS-CoV-2. The individuals diagnosed as positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the electronic health record were eight (5%) in group 1, four (3%) in group 2, and two (1%) in group 3, but it was difficult to confirm if they were tied to symptomatic episodes documented in the trial. There were no adverse events., Interpretation: In this direct-to-participant trial, we showed early feasibility of a decentralised programme to prompt individuals to use a viral pathogen diagnostic test based on symptoms tracked in the study app or physiological changes detected using a wearable sensor. Barriers to adequate participation and performance were also identified, which would need to be addressed before large-scale implementation., Funding: Janssen Pharmaceuticals., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JVi, KH, JVe, MA, LK, JWC, and DT are employed by Janssen Pharmaceuticals. JMR was supported by The Rockefeller Foundation and is now employed by Moderna. ER is employed by CareEvolution. KB-M is a consultant for CareEvolution and was on the Heartline Study Executive Committee. SRS is a consultant for PhysIQ and declares payment for being on the Heartline Study Executive Committee. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Traditional viral illness surveillance relies on in-person clinical or laboratory data, paper-based data collection, and outdated technology for data transfer and aggregation. We aimed to assess whether continuous sensor data can provide an early warning signal for COVID-19 activity as individual physiological and behavioural changes might precede symptom onset, care seeking, and diagnostic testing., Methods: This multivariable, population-based, modelling study recruited adult (aged ≥18 years) participants living in the USA who had a smartwatch or fitness tracker on any device that connected to Apple HealthKit or Google Fit and had joined the DETECT study by downloading the MyDataHelps app. In the model development cohort, we included people who had participated in DETECT between April 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2022. In the validation cohort, we included individuals who had participated between Jan 15 and Feb 15, 2022. When a participant joins DETECT, they fill out an intake survey of demographic information, including their ZIP code (postal code), and surveys on symptoms, symptom onset, and viral illness test dates and results, if they become unwell. When a participant connects their device, historical sensor data are collected, if available. Sensor data continue to be collected unless a participant withdraws from the study. Using sensor data, we collected each participant's daily resting heart rate and step count during the entire study period and identified anomalous sensor days, in which resting heart rate was higher than, and step count was lower than, a specified threshold calculated for each individual by use of their baseline data. The proportion of users with anomalous data each day was used to create a 7-day moving average. For the main cohort, a negative binomial model predicting 7-day moving averages for COVID-19 case counts, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in real time, 6 days in the future, and 12 days in the future in the USA and California was fitted with CDC-reported data from 3 days before alone (H 0 ) or in combination with anomalous sensor data (H 1 ). We compared the predictions with Pearson correlation. We then validated the model in the validation cohort., Findings: Between April 1, 2020, and Jan 14, 2022, 35 842 participants enrolled in DETECT, of whom 4006 in California and 28 527 in the USA were included in our main cohort. The H 1 model significantly outperformed the H 0 model in predicting the 7-day moving average COVID-19 case counts in California and the USA. For example, Pearson correlation coefficients for predictions 12 days in the future increased by 32·9% in California (from 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·73] to 0·93 [0·92-0·94]) and by 12·2% (from 0·82 [0·79-0·84] to 0·92 [0·91-0·93]) in the USA from the H 0 model to the H 1 model. Our validation model also showed significant correlations for predictions in real time, 6 days in the future, and 12 days in the future., Interpretation: Our study showed that passively collected sensor data from consenting participants can provide real-time disease tracking and forecasting. With a growing population of wearable technology users, these sensor data could be integrated into viral surveillance programmes., Funding: The National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the US National Institutes of Health, The Rockefeller Foundation, and Amazon Web Services., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests LMW works for The Rockefeller Foundation, which funded part of this study. VK is the principal and an employee of CareEvolution. ER is the principal science officer and an employee of CareEvolution and Scripps Research. JAP is an adviser for Angiotensin Therapeutics, Precision Health, Cardiosense, and Sense AI. GQ and JMR are supported in part under a grant from The Rockefeller Foundation and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, the US National Institutes of Health. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)