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Drug development for tuberculosis is hindered by the methodological limitations in the definitions of patient outcomes, particularly the slow organism growth and difficulty in obtaining suitable and representative samples throughout the treatment. We developed target product profiles for biomarker assays suitable for early-phase and late-phase clinical drug trials by consulting subject-matter experts on the desirable performance and operational characteristics of such assays for monitoring of tuberculosis treatment in drug trials. Minimal and optimal criteria were defined for scope, intended use, pricing, performance, and operational characteristics of the biomarkers. Early-stage trial assays should accurately quantify the number of viable bacilli, whereas late-stage trial assays should match the number, predict relapse-free cure, and replace culture conversion endpoints. The operational criteria reflect the infrastructure and resources available for drug trials. The effective tools should define the sterilising activity of the drug and lower the probability of treatment failure or relapse in people with tuberculosis. The target product profiles outlined in this Review should guide and de-risk the development of biomarker-based assays suitable for phase 2 and 3 clinical drug trials., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests SHG and WS developed the tuberculosis bacterial load assay and are collaborating with LifeArc to bring the assay to market. IK is participating in studies evaluating the feasibility of the TB22 signature developed by her research group as a treatment monitoring tool. JH holds patent shares for the TB22 signature. LJS is an employee of Johnson & Johnson and reports employee stock and stock options from Johnson & Johnson. NHe is an employee of the University Hospital (LMU) and reports grants to the institute from Beckman Coulter, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP; EU Horizon 2020), and DZIF for research and evaluation of new tuberculosis diagnostics. NHi reports grants or contract and consulting fees from Otsuka Novel Product Muenich (ONPG) and having detailed information on the LAM sputum biomarker. RvC reports INtegrative omics and aspirin response to define the ThERapeutiC targEts for Pediatric TBM grant (R01AI165721) from the National Institutes of Health and participating in the Data Safety Monitoring Board for three randomised controlled trials focused on tuberculosis meningitis. SBG, MK, MR, and JBT are employees of FIND, the global alliance for diagnostics, a not-for-profit foundation that supports the evaluation of publicly prioritised tuberculosis assays and implementation of WHO-approved (guidance and prequalification) assays using donor grants. FIND has product evaluation agreements with several private-sector companies that design diagnostics for tuberculosis and other diseases. These agreements strictly define FIND’s independence and neutrality with regard to these private-sector companies. SBG and MR are also members of the New Diagnostics Working Group (NDWG) Stop TB Partnership. CL is a patent holder on biomarkers for monitoring of tuberculosis treatment. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Despite increasing availability of rapid molecular tests for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in high-burden settings, many people with tuberculosis are undiagnosed. Reliance on sputum as the primary specimen for tuberculosis diagnostics contributes to this diagnostic gap. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy and additive yield of a novel stool quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in three countries in Africa with high tuberculosis burdens., Methods: We undertook a prospective diagnostic accuracy study in Eswatini, Mozambique, and Tanzania from Sept 21, 2020, to Feb 2, 2023, to compare the diagnostic accuracy for tuberculosis of a novel stool qPCR test with the current diagnostic standard for Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA detection from sputum and stool, Xpert-MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert Ultra). Sputum, stool, and urine samples were provided by a cohort of participants, aged 10 years or older, diagnosed with tuberculosis. Participants with tuberculosis (cases) were enrolled within 72 h of treatment initiation for tuberculosis diagnosed clinically or following laboratory confirmation. Participants without tuberculosis (controls) consisted of household contacts of the cases who did not develop tuberculosis during a 6-month follow-up. The performance was compared with a robust composite microbiological reference standard (CMRS)., Findings: The cohort of adolescents and adults (n=408) included 268 participants with confirmed or clinical tuberculosis (cases), 147 (55%) of whom were living with HIV, and 140 participants (controls) without tuberculosis. The sensitivity of the novel stool qPCR was 93·7% (95% CI 87·4-97·4) compared with participants with detectable growth on M tuberculosis culture, and 88·1% (81·3-93·0) compared with sputum Xpert Ultra. The stool qPCR had an equivalent sensitivity as sputum Xpert Ultra (94·8%, 89·1-98·1) compared with culture. Compared with the CMRS, the sensitivity of the stool qPCR was higher than the current standard for tuberculosis diagnostics on stool, Xpert Ultra (80·4%, 73·4-86·2 vs 73·5%, 66·0-80·1; p=0·025 on paired comparison). The qPCR also identified 17-21% additional tuberculosis cases compared to sputum Xpert Ultra or sputum culture. In controls without tuberculosis, the specificity of the stool qPCR was 96·9% (92·2-99·1)., Interpretation: In this study, a novel qPCR for the diagnosis of tuberculosis from stool specimens had a higher accuracy in adolescents and adults than the current diagnostic PCR gold standard on stool, Xpert-MTB/RIF Ultra, and equivalent sensitivity to Xpert-MTB/RIF Ultra on sputum., Funding: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and NIH Fogarty International Center., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests CL has received funding for this work from the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF); consulting fees from Insmed; and speakers' honoraria from Insmed, Gilead, GSK, and Janssen outside of the scope of this work. AMM has received honoraria from Janssen for participation in a data and safety monitoring board outside of the scope of this work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)