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We develop a model where persistent trade shocks create demand for a basket- backed stablecoin, such as Mark Carney's "synthetic hegemonic currency" or Facebook's recent proposal for Libra. In numerical simulations, we find four main results. First, because of general equilibrium effects of the basket currency on the volatility of currency values, overall demand for that currency is small. Second, despite scant holdings of the basket, its global reach may contribute to substantial increases in welfare if the basket is widely accepted, allowing it to complement holdings of sovereign currencies. Third, we calculate the welfare maximizing composition of the basket, finding that optimal weights depend on the pattern of international acceptance, but that basket composition does not significantly affect welfare. Fourth, despite potential welfare improvements, low demand for the basket currency from buyers limits sellers' incentives to invest in accepting it, suggesting that fears of a so-called global stablecoin replacing domestic sovereign currencies may be overstated.

Motivated by recent advances in Internet-of-Things (IoT) technology for household appliances, we analyze a Smart Replenishment system that leverages point-of-consumption (POC) information at end consumers to decide on deliveries of consumables. As such, we extend the classic Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI) concept to end consumers. We model the system for a single manufacturer who directly serves N end consumers with uncertain demand. End consumers partially adopt the new Smart Replenishment mode, which results in a mix of VMI and non-VMI customers. We assume that unfulfilled demand is lost and that the manufacturer’s dispatch capacity is constrained. Customers compete for the same capacity while featuring different out-of-stock risks and service-level expectations, both of which are costly to the manufacturer. Considering various adoption levels, we decide on the design of such a system and focus on (i) inventory control, (ii) customer prioritization, and (iii) degree of smart, integrated decision-making. Using discrete-event simulation and a full-factorial experiment, we show that replenishment decisions can be significantly enhanced with POC information. It leads to substantial improvements in service levels and capacity utilization without loading customers with inventories. This improvement potential is highest for a low demand coverage of the replenishment quantity, a high gap in the ordering behavior of manufacturer and end consumers, and a long lead time. To realize this improvement potential, we propose a flexible reorder corridor to manage inventories at VMI customers that balances the trade-off between out-of-stock risk and service-level expectation inherent in the system.

Firms typically introduce online promotional channels based on the cooperative format of agency selling or reselling to promote end-of-season products. The selection of the agency selling or reselling format is greatly affected by a firm’s pricing timing between traditional and online promotional channels, particularly in an uncertain market. Within this context, we examine how the pricing timings in an online promotional channel relative to a traditional channel impact a firm’s selection between agency selling and reselling formats in an uncertain market. We find that the promotional pricing timings have no effect on the firm’s price decisions under the agency selling format, whereas they might lead to downward prices under the reselling format—even lower than those under the agency selling format. We show that considering promotional pricing timing in an uncertain market fundamentally changes the general intuition that the firm prefers the agency selling to reselling format due to the double-marginalization effect. Specifically, the reselling format might be more profitable for the firm when it sets traditional-channel promotional price prior to introducing the online promotional channel in an optimistic market (i.e., a market more likely to have high demand) or adopts the opposite promotional pricing timing of channels in a pessimistic market (i.e., a market more likely to have low demand). Our findings complement the emerging online retail literature by underscoring the interacting forces of promotional pricing timing and uncertain demand on a firm’s reselling versus agency selling format choice in promoting end-of-season product online.

Background Oral health care use remains low among adult Medicaid recipients, despite the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act's expansion increasing access to care in many states. It remains unclear the extent to which low use reflects either low demand for care or barriers to accessing care. The authors aimed to examine factors associated with low oral health care use among adults enrolled in Medicaid. Methods The authors conducted a survey from May through September 2018 among able-bodied (n = 9,363) Medicaid recipients who were aged 19 through 65 years and nondisabled childless adults in Kentucky. The survey included questions on perceived oral health care use. Semistructured interviews were also conducted from May through November 2018 among a subset of participants (n = 127). Results More than one-third (37.8%) of respondents reported fair or poor oral health, compared with 26.2% who reported fair or poor physical health. Although 47.6% of respondents indicated needing oral health care in the past 6 months, only one-half of this group reported receiving all of the care they needed. Self-reported barriers included lack of coverage for needed services and lack of access to care (for example, low provider availability and transportation difficulties). Conclusions Low rates of oral health care use can be attributed to a subset of the study population having low demand and another subset facing barriers to accessing care. Although Medicaid-covered services might be adequate for beneficiaries with good oral health, those with advanced dental diseases and a history of irregular care might benefit from coverage for more extensive restorative services. Practical Implications These results can inform dentists and policy makers about how to design effective interventions and policies to improve oral health care use and oral health outcomes.

Summary Meniscal injury is one of the comments injuries around the knee; it can occur in different age groups, but rarely in children. Commonly it is caused by a twisting knee injury, which could be presented later by swelling, pain, and mechanical symptoms. Management options for such injuries usually depend on the patient's activity needs and, on the pattern, or type of the meniscal tear. There is a general agreement that conservative management should be kept for low demand patients and stable tear patterns. However, surgical management should be offered for high demand patients, and if the tear has a complex pattern or causing significant mechanical symptoms that affect patients’ daily activities. Physiotherapy and rehabilitation programs are mandatory regardless of the treatment plan chosen for the patients for the sake of regaining knee motion, muscle strength, and helping the patient to return to the preinjury activity level as fast as possible.

Trans-ocean liner shipping companies adopt slow steaming during periods when the market is characterised by low demand, high fuel prices, low freight rates and overcapacity. The most recent instance in which this occurred was the period following the 2008/2009 global financial crises, and the speeds have not yet rebounded to the pre-crisis levels. Most of the existing research regarding slow steaming takes environmental, economic and maritime engineering perspectives, meaning that the phenomenon is studied from the viewpoint of ship owners. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of slow steaming from the shipper's perspective.

We consider a monopoly which practices nonlinear pricing, where buyers may have inequity-averse preferences. Each buyer has a valuation for the good, drawn from a distribution. The monopoly knows the distribution but not the realizations. We introduce the possibility that any buyer can be inequity-averse (fair types) or not (neutral types), in addition to different demand types. Fair types get a disutility from inequity captured through a utility function in the spirit of the one introduced by Fehr and Schmidt (1999). We characterize the optimal nonlinear pricing and show that the degree of suboptimality increases, and the monopoly profit decreases, as the degree of the inequity aversion increases. We also show that some or all of the neutral types with low demand are strictly better off, when there are inequity-averse types in the environment.

Flexible-route bus systems serving passengers at their doorsteps may be preferable to fixed-route bus systems in areas with low demand densities or whose roads cannot accommodate relatively large fixed-route buses. Flexible-route systems may also be preferable for elderly or handicapped riders for whom accessing the pre-determined stops on fixed routes is difficult. Since bus systems with flexible demand-responsive routes retain the economic and environmental advantages of public transportation, it is important to analyze them and optimize their characteristics to match their operating environments. This study shows how the total cost can be minimized for a flexible-route bus system with a many-to-one demand pattern by jointly optimizing its headway and service zone size. Numerical results demonstrate the model's applicability and indicate how such flexible-route systems should be adapted to demand characteristics and planning constraints.

Analytical formulae are widely applied in transformer design due to their easy implementation and low demand of computational resources. One of the great challenges in the field of transformer design is the acquisition of closed-form formulae for calculating temperature distributions in transformer tanks, taking account of different types of surrounding media. The presence of these media results in a variety of boundary conditions when solving the heat equation. In this research, a new rigorous analytical formula for calculating temperature profiles in bushing regions of transformer tank walls is obtained by solving the heat equation, with boundary conditions that properly model the heat interchange between different surrounding media. The heat source is modeled using a formula taken from a previously published investigation performed by the authors. Several study cases are performed, where analytical results are compared with finite element simulations for different boundary conditions. Analytical and numerical results show a good match, demonstrating high precision of our developed analytical method. Thus, this method provides a powerful tool for calculating temperature distributions in transformer tanks, which can be employed for optimization purposes during transformer design stages.

This paper aims to reconcile the inconsistent findings about the effects of CEO transformational leadership (CTL) on firm performance by using upper echelon theory to hypothesize and empirically demonstrate that CTL triggers exploratory innovation in a firm, which in turn has an inverted U-shaped effect on firm performance. In other words, CTL may only lead to better firm performance at moderate levels of exploratory innovation through optimal utilization of a firm's scarce resources and may actually hurt firm performance at higher levels of exploratory innovation because of suboptimal resource utilization. We also show that CTL's most detrimental effect on firm performance occurs when the contingencies of high technology uncertainty and low demand uncertainty are combined. Data from multiple sources within 288 Chinese firms support most of our hypotheses and provide insights into the complex mechanism by which CTL affects firm performance, especially in an increasingly uncertain global economic environment.

Summary Background/aim Last century, our laboratory produced Cultured Epithelial Autograft (CEA) for clinical use by the affiliated adult burn service and other burn units across the country. Production of CEA for clinical use was discontinued after several years because of a low success rate and subsequent low demand. Recently, at our burns unit, a cell culture program was reintroduced as a direct response to the need for improvement in ongoing deficiencies and clinical requirements in burn wound closure. The aim of this study was to validate the laboratory processes and clinical algorithms established and share our recent clinical experiences involving CEA. Methods This observational cohort study recruited patients with burns exceeding 35% TBSA admitted to the Victorian Adult Burns Service at The Alfred (December 2013–December 2016). Autologous keratinocytes were expanded and delivered through sheets of fibrin carrier. Results Twelve patients were recruited to participate in the study. Thirty-two sites were treated with CEA. CEA applied in combination with widely meshed SSG led to the highest take rate (90.1%) at 7–10 days. Further, debridement and grafting were necessary in sixteen of thirty-two sites treated, all involving wound beds prepared with Cuono method or sites treated with CEA only. Conclusion It is important to address the problem of wound bed contamination, either through increased resistance on the part of the construct or wound bed sterilization. Improved understanding of the relative importance of vascularization, control of cell behavior, the extracellular matrix, immune function, and intrinsic antimicrobial capacity for graft take would then inform a more targeted approach to skin tissue engineering for wound closure in severe burns.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) release on the implied crude oil volatility (OVX) during high and low demand for information, measured using internet interest in crude oil. We hypothesize that the OVX decreases after the EIA WPSR release, and even more importantly, that the magnitude of the effect depends on the internet interest in crude oil. To test the hypotheses, we apply VARX-DCC-GARCH on the OVX and implied stock market volatility (VIX) indexes, where EIA WPSR release dates are considered an exogenous variable, and internet search volumes an indicator for the general interest in crude oil. We find not only that the OVX decreases after the EIA WPSR release but, that the magnitude of the effect depends on the internet interest in crude oil, as hypothesized. Thus, we show empirically how the value of information depends on the demand for the information. When it is high, it is more valuable in assessing the anticipated risk involved in the asset. More specifically, our results imply that the EIA WPSR contains relevant risk-related information, which is even more valuable during the times of high interest in crude oil.

The volume and value of fish catches by Indonesia's small-scale fisheries have declined significantly since national government restrictions on travel and social distancing were imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a digital data collection system (OurFish), that records purchases by fish traders from small-scale fishers, data was collected across 82 coastal communities in Southeast Sulawesi. We found that the number of active fishers and traders declined by more than 90% after the onset of the pandemic and the average weight of catch per fishing trip increased across fishers. Although the average price per kilogram of fish declined after the pandemic began, fishers that were able to maintain fishing had on average higher catches and therefore daily catch value was maintained. High value fisheries that usually enter export supply chains were more negatively impacted compared with lower value species that are commonly sold to local markets. We interviewed 185 small scale fishers and fish traders across 20 of the 82 communities in Southeast Sulawesi province, recording the perceived level of impact on local fisheries and the fish trade, causes of this impact and proposed coping strategies. Over 50% of both fishers and fish traders believed low demand for fish from traders and a decline in the price received for fish were disrupting their lives. Approximately 75% of both male and female fishers are coping by continuing to fish, highlighting that there were few alternative livelihoods available at the time of the interviews. Our results provide key insights into the vulnerability of small-scale fishing communities to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study examines how basis ambiguity influences the demand for index insurance. Ambiguity is introduced into the statistical relationship between the loss and the index because they are more difficult to guess than the occurrence of the loss and the index individually. Basis ambiguity lowers the demand for index insurance and increases the threshold to hold the index insurance. This is a possible explanation for the very low demand and participation in index insurance. Further, we consider how changes in ambiguity and ambiguity aversion influence the demand.

The mothballing option has been studied in the literature, but mainly in decision theoretic frameworks. This paper looks at it from a strategic point of view and applies it to an incumbent-entrant framework. In particular, based on the recent strategic interactions between OPEC and the shale oil industry, we conduct a case study where the incumbent OPEC is a exible producer that competes with a representative shale oil firm. Upon entry, the latter produces a fixed amount but it can apply the mothballing option in times of low demand. Our main results are threefold. First, we find that under low demand uncertainty, the mothballing option has a negative effect on the value of the entrant. Second, a large market share of the entrant will stimulate mothballing, caused by a so-called squeeze strategy of the incumbent. Third, our empirical analysis of the (shale) oil market learns that a higher demand elasticity induces mothballing.

This paper studies a household’s optimal demand for a reverse mortgage. These contracts allow homeowners to tap their home equity to finance consumption needs. In stylized frameworks, we show that the decision to enter a reverse mortgage is mainly driven by the differential between the aggregate appreciation of the house price and principal limiting factor on the one hand and the funding costs of a household on the other hand. We also study a rich life-cycle model that can explain the low demand for reverse mortgages as observed in US data. In this model, we analyze the optimal response of a household that is confronted with a health shock or financial disaster. If an agent suffers from an unexpected health shock, she reduces the risky portfolio share and is more likely to enter a reverse mortgage. On the other hand, if there is a large drop in the stock market, she keeps the risky portfolio share almost constant by buying additional shares of stock. Besides, the probability to take out a reverse mortgage is hardly affected.

Dynamic capabilities such as flexibility are considered influential in achieving superior performance, especially under uncertain circumstances. Among others, postponement is a well-established concept in operations and supply chain management (OSCM) and has been regarded as a key concept in managing supply and demand while increasing flexibility. This study investigates the effect of postponement on logistics flexibility, and that of the latter on retail firm performance. In addition, the moderating roles of logistics integration and demand uncertainty on these relationships are investigated. The study utilizes a quantitative survey and draws on a sample of 261 retailers in Sweden. Logistics flexibility proves to have a mediating role in the postponement–performance relationship. Furthermore, we provide support for the direct effect that postponement can have on logistics flexibility, and the subsequent effect of logistics flexibility on retail firm performance. We contribute by simultaneously studying postponement and logistics flexibility in the retailing context. We find conditional support for the moderating roles of logistics integration and demand uncertainty. The results show that for medium levels of uncertainty, the positive relationship between postponement and logistics flexibility, as well as logistics flexibility and firm performance, are intensified. From a practical standpoint, the findings underline that in the presence of high or low demand uncertainty, applying postponement may not always be beneficial in achieving logistics flexibility, and subsequently better performance. Moreover, if retailers prioritize logistics integration, they should not always expect superior performance gains from the flexibility benefits of postponement.

The number of micro-satellites launched by commercial rockets and designed by universities and institutions is experiencing rapid growth, inevitably increasing the amount of the space debris of the same size. This paper adopts a low-thrust tethered space tug system to achieve debris deorbit. A switched low-propulsion force control method using only two constant-thrust modes to achieve both deorbit and libration control is presented. This kind of control method benefits from its robustness and low demand on the output accuracy of the thruster. The harmonic-like libration dynamics of the tethered space tug system around the local horizontal configuration is discussed and the stability of the control method is proved. Moreover, the sufficient condition for the switching sustainability is presented. Afterwards, the control effects of such a system are illustrated using numerical simulations. A modified control law to adapt practical demands shows the flexibility of the switching control methodology.

In fashion industry, we observe that fashion brands like Zara and Gymboree rely on Li & Fung for their clothes manufacturing, but procure materials by themselves (referred to as direct-sourcing in this paper). In contrast, Calvin Klein and Timberland authorize Li & Fung to sub-source materials and manufacture clothes (referred to as sub-sourcing in this paper). Motivated by these observations, we consider a three-layer supply chain comprising of a material supplier, a procurement agent and a fashion brand, and analyze their preferences over two typical procurement structures: direct-sourcing and sub-sourcing. Under sub-sourcing, buy-back contracts, through which fashion brands return unsold products and thus shift overstock risk to procurement agents, are widely adopted in fashion industry. We identify demand enlargement effect and wholesale power effect of the buy-back contract under sub-sourcing. These two effects change the fashion brands’ profit balance between direct-sourcing and sub-sourcing, and may induce the fashion brand to prefer sub-sourcing. We further examine the impact of demand uncertainty on the fashion brand’s profits, and observe that sub-sourcing is dominant under low demand uncertainty. When demand uncertainty is high, sub-sourcing with buy-back may outperform direct-sourcing given a moderate buy-back price.

The objectives of the study are the identification of obstacles to the use of recycled concrete and the empirical examination of the effectiveness of selected economic policy measures to increase the use of recycled concrete in building construction. Combined item-based and factorial survey of Swiss and German executing companies in the construction and concrete value chain was carried out. Results indicate that the consideration of recycled materials in the public tender increases the likelihood of tender application using recycled concrete. The reimbursement of costs when using recycled materials also has a positive, whereas the recognition of recycled materials by a label has a negative effect. Lack of governmental support in its various manifestations and market related factors such as low demand and supply for recycled concrete have been identified as central obstacles to the use recycled concrete in Germany from the perspective of executing companies. In context of promoting sustainable construction, the results point to the need to consider recycled materials in the public tender, stronger governmental support and further training and qualification measures on the subject of recycled concrete.

Introduction: Various rare driver genomic variants have been investigated in metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (mNSCLC). Individually they are considered rare (

Although the recent years have witnessed a stark increase in the availability of high-speed Internet, adoption rates remain low. One potential explanation is that for most users high-speed Internet does not increase their utility. Using a mixed logit discrete choice model, this paper analyzes whether high-speed and basic Internet are substitutes. I find that they are not. Users who do not need higher speeds, choose basic speeds regardless of high-speed availability. Therefore, high-speed Internet is not an infrastructure of general interest. Consequently, policy-makers cannot increase usage of high-speed Internet by solely fostering its rollout.

This paper investigates how emerging carbon emission costs may affect the joint production and location decisions for a manufacturer across the world's regions. Specifically, we develop a new theoretical model which explicitly links product demand, production costs and carbon emission levels to location decisions, and investigate the manufacturer's optimal decisions between two distinct regions. The results show that the influence of carbon emissions on manufacturers' decisions can vary greatly under different circumstances: both off-shoring and near-shoring are possible under rising carbon emission costs; manufacturers with high or low demand have different tolerance levels to the rising carbon emission costs when considering an alternative location; trade costs can change the pattern of relocation. To gain policy insights for those who pursue reducing carbon emissions, different product examples are used to calculate the critical carbon price which triggers different location choices. The results suggest that if production technology is stable, raising carbon cost itself has only limited effects on reducing total carbon emissions, especially for high-value-low-emission industries. The location shift, which is more sensitive to changes in variable carbon emissions, may lead to a significant emission reduction when completed. Additional pricing decision from the manufacturer shows no significant effect on the location decisions; however, if demand is linked directly to carbon emission footprint of the product, then it is more hopeful that a raised carbon price would reduce the carbon emissions significantly through relocation.

In order to prevent the uncontrolled large release of radioactive materials to the environment due to containment failure, Containment Filtered Venting System (CFVS) has been considered as the one of effective measure to prevent the containment over-pressurization. Because the filtered radioactive materials are captured and accumulated in the CFVS components, the CFVS becomes the source of the radiation and this radiation should be properly shielded to protect the field workers. In this study, the effect of CFVS operation pressure on the required shielding wall thickness is investigated in various accident scenarios. The accident scenarios considering the type of initial accident and condition of external safety injection besides the CFVS operation pressure were simulated. The source terms were obtained using the MAAP5 and ORIGEN-ARP code calculation. The effective dose rate and required shielding wall thickness were estimated by the MICROSHIELD code. Consequently, the shielding wall was necessary and the CFVS operation pressure affected the required shielding differently depending on the conditions of external safety injection. As a result, the lower operation pressure of CFVS was favorable in perspective with the low demand of shielding wall.

Background Potential advantages combined with lower cost have prompted a renewed interest in modern all-polyethylene tibial designs. Methods A total of 317 Natural Knee total knee arthroplasties with an all-polyethylene tibial component that was performed since 1993 were retrospectively reviewed to confirm that cost savings were not associated with inferior clinical results. They were primarily used in elderly, low-demand patients. The average age at the time of surgery was 80.8 years. Results 227 knees with a minimum of 2-year follow-up were identified. The average follow-up was 5.6 years (range, 2-20 years). Clinical and radiographic outcomes were evaluated. At the latest follow-up, the average Knee Society and functional score was 94.2 and 57.2. The average postoperative range of motion was 1.6°-115.4°. No patient required a revision for aseptic or septic loosening, wear, or instability. Only 5 knees had a partial nonprogressive cement/bone radiolucency. There was an approximate 33% cost savings for the implants when the all-polyethylene component was used. Conclusion An all-polyethylene tibial component of this design provides excellent results in the elderly population along with a significant cost savings.

Individual differences in working memory capacity (WMC) typically predict reduced rates of mind-wandering during laboratory tasks (Randall, Oswald, & Beier, 2014). However, some studies have shown a positive relationship between WMC and mind-wandering during particularly low-demand tasks (Levinson, Smallwood, & Davidson, 2012; Rummel & Boywitt, 2014; Zavagnin, Borella, & De Beni, 2014). More specifically, Baird, Smallwood, and Schooler (2011) found that when individuals with greater WMC do mind-wander, they tend entertain more future-oriented thoughts. This piece of evidence is frequently used to support the context-regulation hypothesis, which states that using spare capacity to think productively (e.g. plan) during relatively simple tasks is indicative of a cognitive system that is functioning in an adaptive manner (Smallwood & Andrews-Hanna, 2013). The present investigation failed to replicate the finding that WMC is positively related to future-oriented off-task thought, which has implications for several theoretical viewpoints.

The paper presents a two-stage approach for solving a calibration-based problem for the ultimate purpose of detecting leakage hotspots. This is compared with a one-stage approach. A Genetic Algorithm is used to solve optimization problems of searching for calibration parameters values, while minimizing the differences between observations and model predictions. The approach takes into account suspect valves with unknown status, as well as pipes with incorrect roughness values and nodal leakage. The methodology also takes advantage of a new approach to reducing solution search space size for the optimisation problems. These problems are then solved for different leakage scenarios. Artificial calibration data are generated by means of hydraulic modelling employed to mimic planned hydrant discharges during a low demand period, combined with step tests. The case study demonstrates the improved leakage detection and model calibration of the two-stage calibration approach relative to the one-stage approach, which considers all calibration parameters together. This can result in a useful practical network operation tool.

In contrast to the other Nordic countries, Finland is a uniform pricing area, emphasising the strength of its internal transmission grid. However, more capacity investments to wind power are made in the becoming years. Their geographical location in the north, far from the largest load centres in the south, alters the power flows within Finland and creates pressure for further transmission grid development. The locations of the new carbon free capacity investments underline the importance of transmission grid development if uniform pricing is targeted also in the future. To examine these changes, in this article we apply a locational marginal pricing model to the Finnish power market by separating the market into 17 price areas. Our results show that price differences arise between the proposed price areas only during the high demand days in the 2020 scenario. With higher share of wind and nuclear generation in the 2025 and 2030 scenarios price differences arise also during the low demand days.

Can central banks use negative nominal interest rates to overcome the adverse effects of the zero lower bound? I show that negative rates are likely to be counterproductive in an expectations-driven liquidity trap. In a liquidity trap, firms expect low demand and cut prices, which leads the central bank to reduce nominal rates to their lower bound. If the resulting decline in real rates is not enough to stabilize demand, then the pessimism of price setters is fulfilled. Theoretically, the effect of a negative nominal rate is non-monotonic: a marginally negative rate is not enough to escape the liquidity trap, but allows for more pessimistic expectations and deflation, while a sufficiently negative rate eliminates the trap altogether. However, plausible estimates of the cost and benefits of price adjustments in the U.S. suggest that negative rates are contractionary in a liquidity trap, even at ?100 percent.

In recent years, the deferred annuity has aroused intensive discussion as a retirement solution product. In the course of understanding reasons behind the low demand of immediate annuities, two behavioural models, cumulative prospect theory and the hyperbolic discount model, have suggested that deferred annuity products would be popular among retirees. Therefore, in this paper, we provide an overview of the deferred annuity in several international markets, in terms of its availability, sales and demand, and relevant government policies. We find that, in general, there is an increasing awareness of and discussions around the world about deferred annuity products. However, the market share of the deferred annuity is very limited so far, unless there is an encouragement by the government using specific tax rules and regulation policies.

COVID-19 highlights impact of sudden and sustained periods of low demand that may have major ramifications for financial viability of utilities. However, these effects may be mitigated to some extent through efficient management of dispatch, adjustment of capital outlay for committed capacity and provides an opportunity to reshape longer term capacity development. These issues are particularly critical for developing countries like Bangladesh where the demand shock was acute from avg. 10 % per-annum (pa) to (−)12 % over April-June 2020. This analysis shows how Bangladesh can significantly curtail expensive liquid fuel based generation dispatch, eliminate the use of expensive peaking capacity and even delay some of its capacity addition for the intervening period up to 2025. Prospects of using Battery storage to manage evening peak at the wholesale level have been explored in the analysis and it demonstrates such investments in the present demand scenario is not economic. On the other hand, a more balanced import-export regime with neighboring countries may be beneficial to manage the seasonal capacity surplus that is likely to grow over the next five years.

The knowledge about the possible influence of demands on the reliability of safety systems comes from a long way back in time. In IEC 61508 this has been taken care of by indicating two different ways to evaluate the safety integrity of SIS: low demand and high demand mode. The main focus of this paper lies in the intermediate and high demand modes. We investigate the effect of the demand on the system hazard rate when the failed states of individual components are detected during a demand. Component failures can then be repaired before the occurrence of the failure of the safety system. The results of this paper show that the system hazard rate exhibits an unexpected behaviour in the intermediate to high demand region. It is also shown that depending on the SIS repair scheme, the use of Probability Failure per Hour (PFH) based on the equations for a continuous demand as proposed in IEC 61508 leads to very conservative results in the high and continuous demand regions. New asymptotic equations are proposed to evaluate the PFH of kooN systems for all values of the demand rate, together with new associated rules for discrimination of the demand regions.

The back-propagation neural network (BP), genetic algorithm based on BP (GA-BP), and extreme learning machine (ELM) were established to predict the glossiness of silver film and current efficiency for the electrodeposition of nano-silver film in this paper. The artificial neural networks (ANNs) were built to predict the results and contrast with experimental results. The prediction results demonstrated that GA-BP exhibited a relatively higher accuracy than simple BP. ELM demonstrated an efficient rate and the time required was far less than BP and GA-BP, which also had a high accuracy if the sample data were sufficient. GA-BP only needs a few sample data as the basis to obtain high accuracy, which has a low demand for sample data. In conclusion, for the electrodeposition of nano-silver film, the order of the accuracy of learning process is ELM > GA-BP > BP, the order of analogical ability is GA-BP ≈ BP > ELM and the order of time required is GA-BP > BP > ELM. Mean impact value (MIV) analysis was utilized to explore the impact of each parameter for three kinds of ANNs. The results display that glossiness, and current efficiency are mainly controlled by current density and substrate glossiness, but which parameter plays the crucial role is not manifest.

Modelling of district heating networks is subject to many challenges, e.g. computation time and complexity. Since district heating networks occupy the largest share of investment in urban heating, this paper presents a workflow for automatic modelling of district heating networks in an existing CityGML-based urban simulation platform, using the greedy Prim’s algorithm for optimized pipe routing and an empirical logarithmic function for optimized pipe sizing. A validation for the workflow shows, that it is able to size the inner pipe diameters for an existing district heating network with a deviation of less than 7% from its actual values. After optimizations were applied, a smaller deviation of 5.3% could be achieved. After a manual correction for limited inaccuracies in pipe routing has been done, the total pipe length deviated by ca. 8% from the case study network. This paper thus concludes that the workflow provides reliable results along important parameters of a district heating network. Given its low demand for data availability and speed, it provides stakeholders with results to steer decision making on new or to-be-extended heating networks early during the planning process. According to the authors’ knowledge, no comprehensive work was dedicated to the validation of similar methodologies using real-life case studies with existing district heating networks.

Many remote rural communities are ignored in rural electrification plans due to their remoteness or their relatively low demand potential. Many of those communities are rural agricultural villages that cultivate crops whose residue is a potential solid biomass fuel for power generation using appropriate technologies. This research proposes a feasibility study of trigeneration (heat, power and cold) from small farm typologies with enough clustered crop residue in selected communities in Ghana, as well as definition (prototype level) of the best generation technology. A sample of 11 districts in Ghana were surveyed in order to assess the levels of agricultural waste produced in small holder farms and their possible clustering for supplying these wastes to a hypothetical centralized trigeneration plant. The results obtained in terms of plant capacity, biomass waste yields, energy output flows and economic analysis indicate good prospects for the deployment of trigeneration as a solution in rural agricultural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa

Generally, the Safety Integrity Level (SIL) of a subsea Blowout Preventer (BOP) is evaluated by determining the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD), a low demand mode evaluation indicator. However, some SIL, results are above the PFD's effective area despite the subsea BOP'S demand rate being within the PFD's effective range. Determining a Hazardous Event Frequency (IMF) that can cover all demand rates could be useful when establishing the effective BOP SIL. This study focused on subsea BOP functions that follow guideline 070 of the Norwegian Oil and Gas. Events that control subsea well kicks are defined. The HEF of each BOP function is analyzed and compared with the PFD by investigating the frequency for each event and the demand rate for the components. In addition, risk control options related to PFD and HEF improvements are compared, and the effectiveness of HEF as a SIL verification for subsea BOP is assessed. Copyright (C) 2016 Society of Naval Architects of Korea. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

A novel approach to effectively enable the assembly model adaptation automatic, independent of domain knowledge library and low demand on shape similarity. This is achieved by dividing the adaptation into two steps:First, automatic kinematic semantics adaptation is achieved by using a heuristic processing method on the attributed kinematic graphs instead of knowledge library supporting.Then, mainly guided by the result of automatic kinematic semantics adaptation, automatic geometry adaptation is performed to make the geometry adaptation low demand on shape similarity.A new method to automatically and precisely identify the high-level geometry correspondences between two non-registered assembly models based on their attributed kinematic graphs and a heuristic graph matching method. Adaptation plays a fundamental role in case-based design. However, after decades of efforts, automatic adaptation is still an open issue. In works of case-based design, a designer usually chooses a start-up product model (a candidate model) of moderate complexity based on a query model possessing primary new design requirements (kinematic semantics and geometry), then achieves the target design by adapting the candidate model according to the new design requirements and human interventions are often indispensable. To smartly adapt the candidate model to fit the new design requirements, a novel approach to automatic adaptation of assembly models is proposed in this paper. First, in order to effectively identify the corresponding links and interfaces between two non-preregistered assembly models as relevant elements, an attributed kinematic graph is put forward and adopted. Second, based on the attributed kinematic graph, the kinematic semantics of the candidate model is automatically adapted to that of the query model. Third, through performing interface layout transferring, the geometry of the candidate model is automatically adapted to that of the query model based on the corresponding links and interfaces. A prototype system is also implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Tesla recently introduced its Powerwall line of batteries, aimed at a sector of housing with solar electricity installed. This paper considers the economics behind mass introduction of batteries in the housing sector in the UK from the perspective of peak demand management. Utilities use differential tariffs (such as the Economy 7 tariff on Southern Electric in the UK) to encourage more homogeneous loads. Given current costs of battery systems, this work considers the rates of return that may be possible by buying electricity from the grid in times of low demand, and reselling at peak demand from the perspective of an average UK household. We consider the regulatory framework that would have to be in place to make this feasible and look at the effect a mass uptake of battery technology would have on peak demand management in the UK scenario. Overall however, it is found to not be economically feasible at current prices without heavy government subsidies.

In order to guide the corrective application of LOPA, this paper tries to discuss the theoretical basis of quantification for LOPA by comparing the computing methods of event tree consequences. It also discusses the computing equations for scenario frequency of the high demand mode by taking the scenario frequency of an initial event with one independent layer of protection (IPL) as example. Based on the probability theory, the computing method for scenario frequency of multiple initial events is improved and the application principle of two methods, i.e. summation and maximum value are brought forth. Research results show that the scenario frequency of the low demand mode has a specific computing equation. But for the high demand mode, the IPLs should be analyzed one by one, and the computing equation should be selected according to the demand mode of an IPL. As long as a single initiating event contributes more than 50% to the overall frequency of a particular consequence or the accident scenario induced by each initial event has the shared IPL, maximum value method is appropriate; otherwise, summation method should be adopted.

Battery electric vehicles are rapidly entering the market. Their success offers great opportunities for the decarbonization of the transport sector, but also pose new challenges to energy infrastructures. Public charging stations must be built and power grids may become congested. In this article, we analyze the optimal layout and operation of charging systems along highways. We introduce an optimization model that resolves every single charging event based on actual high-resolution demand profiles, thus providing a detailed account of infrastructure operation and utilization. We discuss the economic viability and identify potential roadblocks impeding a rapid build-up of electric mobility.We find that the installation of high-performance charging stations is highly profitable even for rather low demand, mainly due to the spread between wholesale and retail electricity prices. Congestion of regional distribution grids becomes a serious issue already for a moderate market penetration of electric vehicles. While peak loads can be handled by battery electric storage systems, the grid connection fundamentally limits the total amount of cars that can be served per day. Given the long time period needed for the planning and realization of infrastructure measures, rapid decisions are needed to enable the deep decarbonization of the transport sector.

This paper analyzes the flight-frequency choices of a monopoly airline serving a hub-and-spoke network with asymmetric demands. In the 3-city hub-and-spoke network, demand is allowed to differ across markets. Analysis is done separately for two distinct passenger types: those who assign zero cost to layovers, and those who assign a very high cost. Both cases result in a higher flight frequency on the higher-demand spoke. Using a simulation, the flight-frequency choices for the two models are compared, and results show that the difference between the flight-frequency choices on the high and low demand spokes is smaller in the high-cost-layover case than in the zero-cost case.

Pipeline systems are used for distribution of oil derivatives, where the optimization of transport activities impact considerably in the oil company’s economy. We focused on the scheduling of pumping and delivery operations on straight multiproduct pipeline systems connecting a single-source to multiple-destinations. This paper develops new preprocessing heuristics and a discrete-time mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for the allocation and sequencing activity (ASM model). The new MILP model includes constraints concerning the scheduling of pumping interruptions considering stoppages in order to avoid inventory problems. A preprocessing block is also proposed to better estimate the delivery operations for the initialization batches using a simulated annealing metaheuristic to provide a more robust input data for the ASM model. The results for two case studies of a real-world pipeline system were studied. Better inventory management is observed when facing low demand instances due to its capacity to effectively propose pipeline interruptions.

Real-time and high-sensitivity biosensors are urgently needed in biochemistry. As one of the candidates, silicon-on-insulator (SOI) sensors exhibits excellent performances. However, there are still some limitations to hinder them to be applied to much wider scenarios. Fabrication tolerance is also required for the generalization of these micro- or nano-structure. In this work, we demonstrate an SOI waveguide biosensor for biochemical sensing with high sensitivity of 1.88 × 105 dB/RIU. Because of the compact structure and low demand for accuracy of fabrication, this device possesses better applicability and reliability.

Although some firms use dynamic pricing to respond to demand fluctuations, other firms claim that fairness concerns prevent them from raising prices during periods when demand exceeds capacity. This paper explores conditions in which fairness concerns can or cannot cause shortages. In our model, a firm announces a price policy that states its prices during high and low demand, and customers must travel to a venue to learn the current price. We show that the interaction of fairness concerns with travel costs can cause the firm to set stable prices, which leads to shortages during high demand. However, if the firm is able to inform customers about the current price before they incur any travel costs, then dynamic pricing with no shortages is optimal even with strong fairness concerns.

Guaranteed renewability (GR) is a prominent feature in many health and life insurance markets. We develop a model that includes unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over individuals' lifetimes. The presence of demand type heterogeneity leads to the possibility that optimal GR contracts may have a renewal price that is either above or below the actuarially fair price of the lowest risk type in the population. Individuals whose type turns out to be high risk but low demand renew more of their GR insurance than is efficient due to the attractive renewal price. This results in imperfect insurance against reclassification risk. Although a first‐best efficient contract is not possible in the presence of demand type heterogeneity, the presence of GR contracts nonetheless improves welfare relative to an environment with only spot markets.

We examine the different hypotheses which have been put forward to explain the low demand for long-term care insurance using the results from a survey of 2000 Canadians that was conducted in the autumn of 2016. Defining the natural market of long-term care insurance buyers as the one catering to individuals aged between 50 and 70, we find that a remarkable proportion of this natural market has never been approached to purchase such protection. We estimate that approximately 60% of this natural market is currently under-served. After eliminating risk perception and demand side explanations for the low market penetration of long-term care insurance, we conclude that supply-side factors and the crowding-out by government programs are the most likely culprits in explaining the low proportion of Canadians that purchase LTC insurance from private providers.

Non-targeted metabolomics by mass spectrometry has established as the method of choice for investigating metabolic phenotypes in basic and applied research. Compared to other omics, metabolomics provides broad scope and yet direct information on the integrated cellular response with low demand in material and sample preparation. These features render non-targeted metabolomics ideally suited for large scale screens and discovery. Here we review the achievements and potential in high-throughput, non-targeted metabolomics. We found that routine and precise analysis of thousands of small molecular features in thousands of complex samples per day and instrument is already reality, and ongoing developments in microfluidics and integrated interfaces will likely further boost throughput in the next few years.

© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.This paper proposes a methodology and presents its practical application for evaluating whether a pressure reducing valve (PRV) is under cavitation during its operation in a water distribution system. The approach is based on collecting measurements over a 24-hour period such that high demand and low demand times are included. The collected measurements allow evaluation of four indicators related to cavitation, namely the hydraulic cavitation index, noise generated by the valve, acoustic cavitation index and the spectra of the noise. These four indicators provide sufficient information for diagnosis of cavitation with high certainty.

We show that a manager who has to pick a variety at a store without being able to choose the price of products on the horizontally differentiated market with positive fixed costs of offering each product will always under-provide variety. Using the information on sales and availability of vodka products at local Russian store chain we estimate how total sales in a store depend upon the number of products available in the vodka category. Then using the retail and wholesale prices information along with an assumption that the observed variety was maximizing manager's profit net of fixed costs we estimate the distribution of fixed cost of offering vodka variety and calculate the socially optimal level of variety. The average variety has decreased over the period of 6 years. At the same time demand for vodka has shrunk. we find that the unobserved part of fixed cost did not significantly increase over time thus the sole reason for lower variety is low demand. My estimates are that manager under-supplies variety by a factor of over 10, but the social welfare lost due to it is moderate 35% of maximal attainable one.

While an item substitution measure provides for the direction, demand transference quantifies the magnitude of demand that may get transferred to an item a) When its substitute is deleted b) When it is introduced in a store and cannibalizes on similar items. This, hence, is an important input into assortment optimization. If an item is predicted to exhibit a good extent of transference then we may be more certain of deleting it (provided, it is less than an average performer in terms of sales). Conversely, we should be careful of deleting a very incremental item (with low demand transference) – since we’ll be losing on a bulk of its demand. Note that transference is not explicitly observed, it’s latent. Our methodology explains how we capture it.