1. Diagnostic serial interval as a novel indicator for contact tracing effectiveness exemplified with the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea
- Author
-
J. Kim, Sofia K. Mettler, and Marloes H. Maathuis
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Microbiology (medical) ,Pediatrics ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Pneumonia, Viral ,030106 microbiology ,COVID-19 ,Serial interval ,Diagnostic serial interval ,Clinical onset serial interval ,Surveillance ,Contact tracing ,Clinical onset ,Article ,Time-to-Treatment ,lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases ,Betacoronavirus ,03 medical and health sciences ,COVID-19 Testing ,0302 clinical medicine ,Republic of Korea ,medicine ,Humans ,lcsh:RC109-216 ,Symptom onset ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Pandemics ,Clinical Laboratory Techniques ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,Outbreak ,General Medicine ,Infectious Diseases ,Bootstrap confidence interval ,Coronavirus Infections ,business ,Asymptomatic carrier - Abstract
Highlights • New diagnostic serial interval (DSI): time between diagnoses of infector & infectee. • DSI is defined regardless of symptoms and easy to obtain. • In South Korea, mean DSI was found to be short: 3.63 days (95% CI: 3.24, 4.01). • Mean DSI is a possible new indicator for effectiveness of epidemic surveillance., Background The clinical onset serial interval is often used as a proxy for the transmission serial interval of an infectious disease. For SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19, data on clinical onset serial intervals is limited, since symptom onset dates are not routinely recorded and do not exist in asymptomatic carriers. Methods We define the diagnostic serial interval as the time between the diagnosis dates of the infector and infectee. Based on the DS4C project data on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in South Korea, we estimate the means of the diagnostic serial interval, the clinical onset serial interval and the difference between the two. We use the balanced cluster bootstrap method to construct 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Results The mean of the diagnostic serial interval was estimated to be 3.63 days (95% CI: 3.24, 4.01). The diagnostic serial interval was shown to be significantly shorter than the clinical onset serial interval (estimated mean difference -1.12 days, 95% CI: -1.98, -0.26). Conclusions The relatively short diagnostic serial intervals of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in South Korea are likely due to the country’s extensive efforts towards contact tracing. We suggest the mean diagnostic serial interval as a new indicator for the effectiveness of a country’s contact tracing as part of the epidemic surveillance.
- Published
- 2020