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The concept of reference change values (RCVs) for diagnosis and monitoring of diseases has become well established. Several models habe been developed, e. g. one assuming a normal distribution and another one for a log-normal distribution. RCV values calculated for some measurands with both models are compared with each other and led to similar results. A few examples led to RCV values which are not plausible for diagnostic purposes. Although statistical concepts of RCV values are well established, their clinical relevance remains questionable at least for some measurands. Studies with clinicians are required whether RCVs are of practical usefulness.

Epidemiology and potential risk factors for cystic fibrosis arthropathy (CFA) were studied in a relevant cystic fibrosis (CF) patient cohort.Cohort study of patients included in the German CF registry in 2016-2017. Descriptive analysis, exploratory tests and multivariable logistic regression were used to assess prevalence of CFA and associated potential risk factors for adult patients with/without chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection.6069 CF patients aged from 0 to 78 years were analysed. CFA was observed in 4.9% of the patients. Prevalence was significantly higher in adult patients (8.4%) compared to patients18 years (0.7%; p0.0001). Logistic regression analyses in adult patients (n=3319) showed that CFA was significantly associated with increasing age (OR=1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.05; p0.0001), female gender (OR=2.10; 95%CI:1.52-2.90; p0.0001), number of hospitalizations (OR=1.24; 95%CI:1.12-1.36; p0.0001), chronic P. aeruginosa infection (OR=1.83; 95%CI:1.28-2.61; p=0.0009), CF-related diabetes (OR=1.69; 95%CI:1.23-2.33; p=0.0013), pancreatic insufficiency (OR=2.39; 95%CI:1.28-4.46; p=0.0060) and sinusitis/polyps (OR=1.91; 95%CI:1.39-2.62; p0.0001). In a subgroup analysis of adults without chronic P. aeruginosa infection (n=1550) CFA was also significantly associated with increasing age, female gender, increasing number of hospitalizations, pancreatic insufficiency as well as sinusitis/polyps; antimycotic treatment associated only in this subgroup while association with CF-related diabetes was not significant.CFA is a frequent and clinically relevant co-morbidity particularly in adult CF patients. CFA is significantly more common in patients with chronic P. aeruginosa colonization but associations with other indicators for a more severe disease course were identified regardless of P. aeruginosa colonization status.

Environmental contours are an established method in probabilistic engineering design, especially in ocean engineering. The contours help engineers to select the environmental states which are appropriate for structural design calculations. Defining an environmental contour means enclosing a region in the variable space which corresponds to a certain return period. However, there are multiple definitions and methods to calculate an environmental contour for a given return period. Here, we analyze the established approaches and present a new concept which we call highest density contour (HDC). We define this environmental contour to enclose the highest density region (HDR) of a given probability density. This region occupies the smallest possible volume in the variable space among all regions with the same included probability, which is advantageous for engineering design. We perform the calculations using a numerical grid to discretize the original variable space into a finite number of grid cells. Each cell's probability is estimated and used for numerical integration. The proposed method can be applied to any number of dimensions, i.e. number of different variables in the joint probability model. To put the highest density contour method in context, we compare it to the established inverse first-order reliability method (IFORM) and show that for common probability distributions the two methods yield similarly shaped contours. In multimodal probability distributions, however, where IFORM leads to contours which are dificult to interpret, the presented method still generates clearly defined contours., preprint of the accepted version, 14 pages, 10 figures

A simulation model for the mechanical responses of texturized materials is presented. The model is based on the construction of stochastic elastic properties and the FEM simulation of material aggregates. The stochastic nature of the texture is used in the aggregates for the different grains and allows the FEM to include material anisotropies arising from both the texture main directions and the stochastic variations among the different grains in the aggregate. This method makes possible the simulation of stochastic variations in the stress response for texturized materials. It combines the texture parameters for the single-crystals and computations in representative volume elements to generate extended elastic properties which can be used in macro-simulations. The method is presented and exemplified with Aluminium foil. Finally, some ideas for a two-scaled simulation using these results are discussed and illustrated.

Background The current dogma of establishing intra-laboratory reference limits (RLs) and their periodical reviewing cannot be fulfilled by most laboratories due to the expenses involved. Thus, most laboratories adopt external sources for their RLs often neglecting the problems of transferability. Therefore, several attempts were undertaken to derive RLs from the large data pools stored in modern laboratory information systems. These attempts were further developed to a more sophisticated indirect procedure. The new model can be considered a combined approach because it pre-excludes some subjects by direct criteria. In the current study, the new concept was applied to estimate RLs for serum and plasma creatinine from several German and Italian laboratories. Methods A smoothed kernel density function was estimated for the distribution of the total mixed data of the sample group (combined data of non-diseased and diseased subjects). It was assumed that the “central” part of the distribution of all data represents the non-diseased (“healthy”) population. The central part was defined by truncation points using an optimisation method, and was used to estimate a Gaussian distribution of the values of presumably non-diseased subjects after Box–Cox transformation of the empirical data. This distribution was now considered as the distribution of the non-diseased subgroup. The percentiles of this parametrical distribution were calculated to obtain RLs. Results RLs determined by the indirect combined decomposition technique led to similar RLs as the classical direct method. Furthermore, the RLs obtained from 14 laboratories in 2 different European regions reflected the well-known differences of various analytical procedures. Stratification for gender and age was necessary. With rising age, an increase of the upper RL and of the reference range was observed. Hospitalization appeared also to affect the RLs. The new approach led to RLs in an artificially mixed population of diseased and non-diseased subjects (selected by clinical criteria) which were identical to RLs determined by a direct method applied to the non-diseased subgroup. Conclusions The proposed strategy of combining exclusion criteria with a resolution technique led to plausible retrospective RLs from intra-laboratory data pools for creatinine. Differences between laboratories were mainly due to the well-known bias of the different analytical procedures.

We report on the development of a distributed fibre optic monitoring system for detection of strain and temperature along single-mode fibres. The system is based on the Brillouin optical-fibre frequency-domain analysis (BOFDA). In order to bring down costs of the measuring device, the sideband technique has been implemented for the BOFDA analysis. The use of only one low-cost DFB laser has eliminated the effects of any frequency drift and therefore no tunable laser source has been demanded. We present a BOFDA setup offers digital filtering for enhancement of the dynamic range [1].

Organic extracts of marine sediments from the North Sea and the Baltic Sea were investigated with two toxicity assays. The comet assay based on the fish cell line Epithelioma papulosum cyprini (EPC) was applied to determine the genotoxic potential; zebrafish embryos ( Danio rerio ) were used to quantify the teratogenic potential of the samples. EC 50 values were calculated from dose–response curves for both test systems. Highest teratogenic and genotoxic effects normalised to total organic carbon (TOC) content were detected in sediment samples of different origins. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are not likely to be the causes of the observed effects, as demonstrated by a two-step fractionation procedure of selected extracts. The toxic potential was more pronounced in fractions having polarity higher than those possessed by PAHs and PCBs. The suitability of the two in vitro test systems for assessing genotoxic and teratogenic effects of marine sediment extracts could be demonstrated.

Supramolecular patterns of filamentous (F-)actin up to several micrometres across were visualized within projections of locomotory amoebae after cell fixation and staining with phalloidin-rhodamine. The patterns included rings, single and double spirals, some apparently colliding and disintegrating. Cell stimulation with a pulse of the chemoattractant cyclic AMP induced damping oscillations in F-actin ring frequency with a period of 6–7 s. Ring front propagation after stimulation was modelled by Markov and Fourier methods at 3.1–17.5 μm/min, similar to actual cell speed. We argue that the dynamics and detailed morphological correspondence of these F-actin structures to wave patterns in chemical reaction-diffusion systems strongly supports the interpretation that Dictyostelium cytoplasm behaves as an unstable, excitable medium enabling the propagation of self-organized, physico-chemical relaxation oscillations, i.e. autowaves, of reversible F-actin assembly or aggregation — a new state of actin - fundamental to pseudopodium extension, cell locomotion, chemotaxis and other cell functions.

Cranial placodes are local thickenings of the vertebrate head ectoderm that contribute to the paired sense organs (olfactory epithelium, lens, inner ear, lateral line), cranial ganglia and the adenohypophysis. Here we use tissue grafting and dye injections to generated fate maps of the dorsal cranial part of the non-neural ectoderm for Xenopus embryos between neural plate and early tailbud stages. We show that all placodes arise from a crescent-shaped area located around the anterior neural plate, the pre-placodal ectoderm. In agreement with proposed roles of Six1 and Pax genes in the specification of a panplacodal primordium and different placodal areas, respectively, we show that Six1 is expressed uniformly throughout most of the pre-placodal ectoderm, while Pax6, Pax3, Pax8 and Pax2 each are confined to specific subregions encompassing the precursors of different subsets of placodes. However, the precursors of the vagal epibranchial and posterior lateral line placodes, which arise from the posteriormost pre-placodal ectoderm, upregulate Six1 and Pax8/Pax2 only at tailbud stages. Whereas our fate map suggests that regions of origin for different placodes overlap extensively with each other and with other ectodermal fates at neural plate stages, analysis of co-labeled placodes reveals that the actual degree of overlap is much smaller. Time lapse imaging of the pre-placodal ectoderm at single cell resolution demonstrates that no directed, large-scale cell rearrangements occur, when the pre-placodal region segregates into distinct placodes at subsequent stages. Our results indicate that individuation of placodes from the pre-placodal ectoderm does not involve large-scale cell sorting in Xenopus.

Summary The carcinogenic potential of 4 highly purified polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAC) was studied in the respiratory tract of rats. Using a beeswax/trioctanoin mixture as vehicle, 10, 3 and 1mg phenanthrene (PHE), 3 and 1mg chrysene (CHR), 0.1 mg dibenz(a,h)anthracene (DBahA) and 6, 3 and 1mg benzo(b)naphto(2,1-d)thiophene (BNT) were injected into the lungs of 35 female Osborne-Mendel rats per group. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP, 0.3, 0.1 and 0.03mg) was used as the reference substance. Whereas only one squamous cell carcinoma developed at the highest PHE dose, a dose-dependent tumor incidence was found for CHR. BNT showed a carcinogenic effect similar to CHR, but an increasing incidence of neoplasms was not seen between the median and high dose. DBahA induced carcinomas in even more than half of the animals at the dose level of 0.1mg and, therefore, has to be classified as the most potent PAC under investigation. BaP resulted in a clear dose-response relationship. According to probit analysis of the results, the carcinogenic potencies of the PAC relative to BaP (1.00) rank as follows: DBahA, 1.91; CHR, 0.03; BNT, 0.02; and PHE, 0.001. The estimated ED 10 − values were 0.031mg for BaP, 0.016mg for DBahA, 1.02mg for CHR, 1.65mg for BNT and 22.84mg for PHE.