1. Modeling the Ex Post Real Option Value in Metastatic Melanoma Using Real-World Data
- Author
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Louis P. Garrison, Meng Li, Woojung Lee, Tu My To, William Wong, and David L. Veenstra
- Subjects
Oncology ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Databases, Factual ,Metastatic melanoma ,Ipilimumab ,Real world evidence ,Antineoplastic Agents, Immunological ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Electronic Health Records ,Humans ,Value assessment ,Neoplasm Metastasis ,Melanoma ,business.industry ,Health Policy ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Survival Analysis ,Markov Chains ,Option value ,Survival benefit ,business ,Standard therapy ,Real world data ,Algorithms ,medicine.drug - Abstract
Objectives Real option value (ROV) is created when a drug enables a patient to live long enough to benefit from a future innovation. Few studies have quantified ROV in the real world. We aimed to estimate the ex post ROV for ipilimumab in metastatic melanoma using real-world data (RWD). Methods We developed a framework for calculating ROV using RWD, accounting for the health gain in the standard therapy arm and the uptake of future innovations. A Markov model was developed to estimate the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained with ipilimumab compared with chemotherapy for patients with or without subsequent cancer immunotherapy (CIT). A nationwide electronic health record-derived, deidentified database was used to estimate survival and uptake of CIT. Results The incremental QALYs gained for ipilimumab compared with chemotherapy without subsequent CIT were 1.74. With subsequent CIT, the incremental QALYs compared with chemotherapy increased by 0.92, 0.60, 0.33, 0.18, 0.10, and 0.02 when CIT became available 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months after the initiation of first-line treatment, respectively. The results were most sensitive to the survival benefit of ipilimumab, the survival benefit of subsequent CIT, and the uptake of CIT. Conclusions This is the first study to estimate ex post ROV using RWD. The ex post ROV was between 1% and 54% of conventional value for patients who received a diagnosis within 2 years before CIT availability. Further studies are needed to understand ROV in other disease areas, particularly those with longer survival times.
- Published
- 2021
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